Our reporter He Wenying
"The early repayment I have made since years ago has already been scheduled for May, and now it is even more difficult to make an appointment." Ms. Xiao, a Changsha citizen, reflected in an interview with a reporter from the "Securities Daily" that many people have recently repaid their mortgages early , Bank appointments not only line up long lines, but the staff will dissuade residents who have such intentions.
The "Securities Daily" reporter learned through multiple interviews that the number of people who repay their mortgages in advance has indeed increased, and banks are also deliberately controlling the repayment amount and repayment pace.
So, why do residents get together to repay their loans in advance?
Why did the bank deliberately refuse?
With these two questions, the reporter launched an investigation.
Wealth Management Income Underperforms Mortgage Interest
Bank wealth management income has significantly underperformed mortgage interest, which is the main reason for most early repayers.
The president of a Changsha branch of a state-owned bank said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily: "The borrowers who repay their loans in advance are basically borrowers whose mortgage interest rates were 5% to 6%. The rate of return is only about 3%, and there is an obvious inversion with the loan interest rate, and the wealth management income cannot outperform the mortgage interest, so many people choose to repay the loan in advance.”
Relevant data further confirm the above statement.
In 2022, bank wealth management products encountered two rounds of large-scale net worth retracements: In March last year, many bank wealth management products fell below the net worth; The number once exceeded 6,000.
"The fund I bought last year was covered by 20%-30%. Instead of generating negative returns like this, it is better to repay the loan in advance to save some interest. Many home buyers in our homeowner group repay the loan in advance based on this idea." Ms. Xiao said.
During the investigation, the reporter found that there are several types of early repayers, including full repayment, partial repayment, and conversion of commercial loans to provident fund loans, but in the final analysis it is to improve the efficiency of fund use.
Ms. Wu, who has been engaged in the provident fund loan guarantee business for a long time, said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily": "Recently, the Changsha Provident Fund Center has increased the loanable multiple, and the provident fund interest rate is lower than that of commercial loans. Therefore, many buyers choose to settle commercial loans in advance. The loan is converted into a provident fund loan."
In this regard, the president of the above-mentioned bank said: "There is nothing wrong with improving the efficiency of capital use, but everyone must do what they can. We have found that some speculators have recently encouraged residents who repay their loans early to mortgage their houses after paying off their mortgages. The loan period is usually short, and if the family encounters an urgent need for money later, it will cause relatively greater pressure and risks on the family's finances."
Experts suggest enriching investment channels for residents
Why do residents have the ability to repay their loans in advance?
A set of data from the central bank gives the answer.
Data show that in 2022, RMB deposits will increase by 26.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.59 trillion yuan year-on-year.
Among them, household deposits increased by 17.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.94 trillion yuan compared with the whole year of 2021, an increase of 6.54 trillion yuan compared with 2020, and an increase of 8.14 trillion yuan compared with 2019. The increase in household deposits hit a new record The new high since the statistics.
Sun Wenhua, Ph.D. of Shanghai Lixin Institute of Finance and Accounting, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily: "This set of data shows the economic strength of Chinese residents more intuitively, and also proves that many house buyers have the ability to repay their loans in advance. The reason for repaying loans in advance There are the following aspects: first, home buyers want to ease the pressure on household expenditures, or prevent inflation from causing depreciation; second, after the epidemic risks in recent years, everyone’s defensive psychology has gradually increased, and risk appetite has declined rapidly, prompting residents’ deposit balances to increase. The third is the lack of rich investment channels for residents with investment intentions, which makes it difficult to improve the efficiency of the use of this part of funds; the fourth is the herd effect, seeing other people repay their loans in advance and follow suit. The resonance of the above factors caused the early repayment Loans appear concentrated."
However, if the residents have money on hand to repay the loan in advance, why should the bank "persuade them to quit"?
The president of the above-mentioned bank explained: "First, this is inconsistent with the original intention of the country to encourage residents to consume; secondly, the bank requires that the loan balance should not experience negative growth, and repaying the loan in advance will reduce the efficiency of the bank's use of funds; If the funds are freed up to repay the loan in advance, the family's ability to resist structural risks will be significantly reduced, which is also detrimental to the long-term stable development of the family."
Wu Chaoming, vice president of the Financial Credit Research Institute, gave suggestions on how to resolve the problem of centralized early repayment of loans and improve the efficiency of residents' fund use.
"On the surface, we should enrich residents' investment channels, increase the rate of return on wealth management products or other assets, and make them higher than the mortgage interest rate on the debt side of residents. But from a deeper perspective, it is necessary to improve the labor productivity of the whole society and increase the output per unit of time. output, and then improve the efficiency of unit funds, keep the economy growing at a high level, bring higher returns to wealth management products or other assets on the asset side of residents, and form a positive feedback or virtuous circle. In my country, the macro leverage ratio increases, and the debt burden and the use of funds In the context of declining efficiency, policies should encourage more funds to enter high-efficiency sectors, and continue to increase investment and support for new growth drivers."
"At present, my country's economy is recovering rapidly. With the expansion of investment channels, the income is expected to get considerable returns." Sun Wenhua suggested that those who repay the loan in advance should start from the overall situation, and refrain from delaying the investment opportunity by following the trend and repaying the loan.
(Securities Daily)