Newspaper, Beijing, February 11 (Reporter Yao Jin) According to financial statistics released by the People's Bank of China on the 10th, at the end of January, the balance of broad money (M_2) was 273.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. 0.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year; in January, RMB loans increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 922.7 billion yuan year-on-year.
According to preliminary statistics, the increase in social financing scale in January was 5.98 trillion yuan, 195.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year.
A number of data exceeded expectations, causing widespread concern in the market.
Industry insiders said that the financial data in January achieved a "good start", which will effectively boost market confidence and stimulate the vitality of market players.
The M_2 growth rate in January hit the highest level since mid-2016, indicating that the prudent monetary policy has increased its support for the real economy and the market liquidity is relatively abundant.
"The main factor supporting the record high growth rate of M_2 in January is resident deposits. At the same time, the enhanced derivative capacity under the high credit growth and the fiscal frontier have also increased money supply." Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that, Household deposits increased by 6.2 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 790 billion yuan year-on-year from the high base last year; before the Spring Festival, enterprises concentrated on paying salaries and benefits, and unit deposits were transferred to household deposits. Residents choose to save their income rather than consume it, boosting M_2.
Under the joint effect of economic recovery and policy support, credit supply and demand boomed in January, and the total amount of new loans in that month hit a record high.
Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, said that from the perspective of supply, commercial banks have a tradition of "early release and early return" of credit. "Front efforts", driving banks to invest in credit at the beginning of the year.
From the perspective of demand, on the one hand, domestic economic activities have recovered rapidly since the end of last year, and market confidence has picked up, which has led to an improvement in the demand for loans in the real economy; Investment in the manufacturing industry has maintained rapid growth, supporting the demand for supporting financing. At the same time, with the support of the "first arrow", the bank's support for loans to real estate companies has increased significantly.
In January, loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 4.68 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.51 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 3.5 trillion yuan, and bill financing decreased by 412.7 billion yuan.
"In January, the amount of new credit increased significantly, and corporate loans are still the main support." Wen Bin believes that with the accelerated release of supporting financing for policy-based development financial instruments, the increase in the loan support plan for guaranteed delivery buildings and high-quality real estate companies, carbon emission reduction and Structural monetary policy tools such as equipment renewal and renovation continued to be implemented. Driven by the "leading geese" of policy banks and state-owned joint-stock banks, corporate loans and corporate medium- and long-term loans remained strong in January.
"In January, while the total amount of corporate loans expanded, the maturity structure continued to improve. On the one hand, this was due to the recovery of banks' risk appetite in the context of economic recovery. It also intends to increase the intensity of medium and long-term loans." Wang Qing said.
Compared with corporate loans, in January, household loans increased by 257.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 585.8 billion yuan.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of China Merchants Union Finance, believes that this reflects that due to multiple factors, residents' willingness to consume and invest is weak, and effective financing demand is still insufficient.
Wang Qing believes that credit is expected to continue to increase year-on-year in February, supported by the continuation of the steady growth orientation of macro policies and the restoration of independent financing needs of market players.
Since February, bill interest rates have continued to remain high, which also indicates this.
In addition, with the large-scale issuance of local bonds in February, social financing is also expected to increase year-on-year.
Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Director of Research Department of Jones Lang LaSalle, believes that this year's consumption growth rate is expected to gradually recover to the level close to the pre-epidemic level, but at the same time, various policy support, including financial policies, is still needed to achieve orderly growth. Expand the scale of financial support for consumer credit, steadily reduce the cost of personal consumer credit, help consumption recovery, and boost residents' consumption ability and willingness.
"With the introduction of local growth stabilization plans and measures, the pace of investment by enterprises and government departments has accelerated, and consumption expectations have gradually recovered. Driven by policies and the market's endogenous financing demand, credit expansion has been active in the beginning of the year, accelerating the process of widening credit." Wen Wen Bin said that under the high credit growth at the beginning of the year, the follow-up resilience still needs to be observed.
In the next stage, the resilience of credit expansion and the restoration of real estate and consumption are still critical. Policies such as expanding investment, promoting consumption, stabilizing real estate, and adjusting structure need continued support, and continue to maintain a stable monetary environment to consolidate the economic stabilization and improvement.
Yao Jin
Yao Jin