Securities Times reporter Zhang Da Zhang Shuxian Wu Jiaming

　　The real estate market in first-tier cities, known as the wind vane, has attracted much attention, especially the second-hand housing market, which can best reflect the real situation of the market.

A few days ago, a reporter from the Securities Times conducted an on-the-spot investigation on the second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Judging from the survey results, the rebound in the number of viewings is a common feature of the second-hand housing market in the three places. In addition, the transaction prices of second-hand housing in Beijing and Shanghai remained stable, but the listing prices of new listings all rose.

　　Beijing: Transaction picks up and listing price rises

　　"Last weekend, there were a lot of people looking at the house, and the staff in our store were too busy!"

　　On February 8, a reporter from the Securities Times visited an intermediary store in Fengtai District, Beijing. A staff member who had just returned from viewing a house with a client expressed the above-mentioned emotion when talking about the recent market.

　　"I closed two orders in one day on Saturday, and took a look at 4 groups of customers. One customer was interested in a small apartment in a school district, and 12 customers robbed it, and finally my customer robbed it... I was busy for two days on the weekend. I didn’t get any food.” The above-mentioned staff member told the Securities Times reporter.

　　Later, the reporter came to another intermediary store in Fengtai District.

Since it was a working day, there were no people in the store to see the house, but the staff also recalled to the reporter that there were a lot of people who saw the house last weekend. suite."

　　Not only Fengtai, but many intermediaries in Dongcheng, Chaoyang, and Haidian, when asked about the recent market conditions, said that the transaction volume has picked up.

　　An intermediary in Haidian District told the Securities Times reporter: "Recently, there have been a lot of people looking at houses, and the transaction volume has also been relatively high. Last weekend, our company sold more than 500 houses in a day."

　　"In fact, from the last week of December last year to the present, the transaction volume in Beijing has been quite large. In January this year, there were a lot of buyers before the Spring Festival, because they were worried about price increases after the year. In addition, some customers just met the qualifications for buying houses or the year-end bonus Once you get down, you can start buying a house." An intermediary in Chaoyang District told a reporter from the Securities Times.

　　In his community, only one or two units were sold in one month last year, and eight units were sold in January this year.

　　Regarding the reasons for the recovery of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing, a reporter from the Securities Times interviewed a number of intermediaries. They can be summarized in two aspects: First, many people came out to view houses and buy houses after "Yangkang" at the end of last year. Second, since the end of last year, a number of supportive policies for home purchases have been introduced, such as interest rate cuts, individual tax reductions, etc., and now most of the home buyers are buyers who change houses, some change houses in school districts, some trade small for large, and trade old for new.

　　Although the trading volume has picked up, many intermediaries told the Securities Times reporter that the current transaction price is still relatively stable, which is similar to that at the end of last year.

However, they also said that after the Spring Festival, the listing prices of new listings have risen compared with those before the Spring Festival.

　　An intermediary in Dongcheng District told the Securities Times reporter that after the Spring Festival, the prices of newly listed houses were higher than before, reflecting the owner’s optimistic attitude towards the market, but they have not yet been sold. This wave of listings has been digested, and prices are expected to rise slightly in March and April.

　　An intermediary in Haidian District gave the reporter an example, "Now I am talking to the owner. The same house with a price of 5.8 million yuan can be sold for 5.5 million yuan a year ago, but now 5.8 million yuan may not be able to be negotiated, or at most it can only be negotiated. With a lower price of 30,000 to 50,000, the negotiating space becomes smaller and the negotiation becomes more difficult, which shows that the market is going up.”

　　Regarding this year's market situation, many intermediaries expressed optimistic views to the Securities Times reporter, mostly because of the state's support for real estate this year.

　　Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Times that the activity of Beijing's second-hand housing market has increased after the Spring Festival.

Compared with the daily average level before the Spring Festival in January, the average daily number of second-hand housing viewing customers after the holiday increased by about 40%, the number of new listings increased by about 1.5 times, and prices rose steadily and slightly.

Against the backdrop of an overall improvement in market expectations, it is expected that the Beijing property market will continue to recover.

　Shanghai: second-hand housing with viewing volume

　　and turnover rebounded

　　"In the past, it was 'Gold, Three Silver and Four', but this year it is obviously warming up earlier." Ms. Zhu, an employee of a real estate agency company in Shanghai, told the Securities Times reporter, "After the Spring Festival, the number of views in her intermediary belt increased by two times compared with the previous month. Up to 30%."

　　Ms. Zhu also operates the intermediary's self-media platform. "I didn't expect that many customers would inquire about housing information on the platform from the first day to the fifth day of the Lunar New Year. Among them, 4 groups of customers will be converted into store viewing customers after the end of the year." She said. explain.

　　Mr. Jiang, another real estate agency salesman, told the Securities Times reporter that since he started working on the seventh day of the seventh day, he felt much busier than before. There were nearly a hundred groups of customers viewing the houses in the community, and nearly 10 houses were finally sold."

　　However, when the reporter visited several real estate intermediary stores, he did not see any customers.

In this regard, Mr. Jiang responded, "There are fewer customers on working days, and there are especially many customers on weekends. If you come over on weekends, there are almost no salesmen in the store. They are either showing or signing contracts. Since the resumption of work, only our store has sold. 3 sets."

　　The data monitored by the Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute shows that after the Spring Festival, the second-hand housing market has recovered well, especially in the first weekend of February (also the first weekend after the festival), the transaction volume of Lianjia increased by 50%~60% compared with the previous one. %, the viewing volume has increased by 30% to 40%, indicating that there is still demand and purchasing power in the market.

　　"From the perspective of the transaction cycle, both the transaction cycle of housing listings and the transaction cycle of customer sources have shortened. In recent weeks, the transaction cycle of housing listings has dropped from the previous highest of 82 days to 67 days, and the transaction cycle of customer sources has dropped from 28 days to 67 days. 15 days, indicating that the current pace of transactions is accelerating." Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute said that overall, the possibility of the market bottoming out and stabilizing has increased.

　　As for the price of second-hand housing, the reporter learned when visiting real estate agencies in Shanghai that the current listing price has increased, but the transaction price has not changed significantly.

Mr. Jiang, the above-mentioned real estate intermediary, gave an example that the listing price of a 56-square-meter small two-bedroom house in a community around the store was mostly around 2.9 million yuan a year ago, but the listing price has reached about 3 million yuan a year later, and the transaction price has not risen significantly. Most of the houses sold last weekend were priced between 2.8 million and 2.9 million yuan. "If you want to sell at a higher price, I suggest you wait."

　　Lu Wenxi, an analyst with Shanghai Centaline Real Estate, said in an interview with reporters that there are indeed signs of recovery in the Shanghai second-hand housing market. The main reason is that the recent warm wind in the property market has boosted the confidence of buyers in the property market. Obtaining the qualifications for first-hand housing development also promotes second-hand housing transactions to some extent.

　　"At the same time, we found that the number of second-hand housing listings has also recovered well." Lu Wenxi told reporters, "Under normal circumstances, there are generally about 10,000 new listings of second-hand housing listings a week. Last week, the number of listings in Shanghai has increased to several A thousand sets."

　　As for whether there will be a "Xiaoyangchun" in second-hand housing in Shanghai?

Lu Wenxi analyzed, "In the first half of the year, there should be a 'Xiaoyangchun' in Shanghai's property market, but after that, the first half of the year should still be a process of continuously building the bottom and stabilizing the bottom of the market. It may be that in the second half of the year, the market will have a more obvious order in volume and price. recovery situation."

Shenzhen: Watch volume pick up

　　"Hong Kong guest" is back

　　"After the Spring Festival, the number of house buyers who came to view houses increased by about 50% compared with the previous year. Most of them were improvement customers who paid attention to houses in school districts and large houses, and the demand for leasing also increased." A real estate agency working in Cuizhu, Luohu, Shenzhen Manager Huang seems to have more confidence in the property market in Shenzhen this year. "Last year's performance was bleak, and the positive cumulative effect of the property market is beginning to appear. I hope that the confidence in the property market will gradually return."

　　With the end of the Spring Festival holiday and the start of construction, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen began to show some signs of recovery.

According to data released by the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, 560 second-hand houses (including self-service) were recorded in Shenzhen last week, an increase of 214.6% from the previous month.

After the start of construction in the Spring Festival, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen showed a rapid recovery trend.

It is worth noting that the recorded volume here is based on the time when the second-hand housing sales contract was initiated, not the final number of transactions and transfers. Therefore, compared with online signing data, this data can reflect market dynamics in a timely manner.

Xiao Xiaoping, president of the Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, told reporters that the number of second-hand housing in the recent period has probably returned to the level of early December last year.

　　In the past, buyers from Hong Kong were also an important part of Shenzhen's property market.

Recently, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, which has received much attention, have finally resumed "customs clearance".

The reporter interviewed around the Futian and Liantang ports and found that many Hong Kong property owners returned to Shenzhen to take care of their houses, rent or sell them, taking advantage of the resumption of customs clearance.

　　"I have a house in Liantang. Since I haven't returned to Shenzhen for almost three years, many home appliances and furniture have been damaged. This time I come back to clean up. I am still considering renting or selling it." Mr. Chen, who lives in Shatian, Hong Kong, told reporters. There are also friends around me who want to go back to Shenzhen and look for opportunities in the property market.

　　Around the Liantang Port, some real estate agents also told reporters that the number of inquiries from Hong Kong clients has increased significantly recently.

"Due to the newly opened passenger inspection function at Liantang Port, and the good living environment around Liantang and Yantian, but housing prices are relatively low in Shenzhen City, the houses here have begun to attract the attention of some Hong Kong customers." A real estate agency said. .

　　In addition, according to the transaction data of Midland Property (Shenzhen), in the purchase and rental transactions in January 2023, the transaction slips of customers using Hong Kong and foreign identity documents accounted for 10% of all transactions, compared with 2022. 4% is 6 percentage points higher.

　　Before and after the Lunar New Year, various provinces and cities also made policy adjustments for the local property market, relaxing restrictions on purchases in many regions, reducing down payment ratios, and lowering first-home loan interest rates.

However, the reporter's investigation found that the current housing loan interest rates of major banks in Shenzhen are consistent with those in December last year, and the first-home interest rate is mostly 4.6%, and the loan amount is relatively loose.

As one of the most strictly regulated cities, every move of the Shenzhen property market has attracted much attention.

Up to now, the regulatory policy of Shenzhen property market has not changed significantly.

　　On February 8, 2021, the reference price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen, which is known as the "most stringent in history" regulation, was released. It has been two years since then, and there has been no change.

In this regard, Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center believes that the principle of reference price is adjusted every year, and this year it is more "conservative", and whether it is finally released may depend more on the future real estate trend.

The adjustment of the reference price is reasonable. There is still a large gap between the reference price of many second-hand properties and the actual transaction price. Especially from the perspective of the government’s principle of supporting rigid demand and improving group housing purchases, the adjustment of rigid demand and improving products may be more prioritized, but “housing The general principle of "live, not speculate" is the first principle. Past experience shows that once policy changes are likely to cause housing prices to rise, the achievements made in the past two years of regulation and control may come to naught. Therefore, the government is very cautious about policy adjustments. The main reason for the adjustment.