The domestic vaccine leader Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) and Merck’s exclusive agent for vaccine products have recently renewed their contract. Among them, the HPV vaccine agreement that has attracted much attention has a total purchase amount of nearly 100 billion.

　　Red Star Capital Bureau noticed that under the circumstances that Merck's nine-valent HPV vaccine is still "difficult to find", Zhifei Bio will significantly reduce the basic purchase amount of HPV vaccine in 2025.

　　Consumers are enthusiastic about the nine-valent HPV vaccine, but with the substantial increase in the number of nine-valent HPV batches issued, the free popularization of domestically produced bivalent HPV, and the expansion of HPV vaccination age, it is difficult for the market not to worry about the continued growth of the nine-valent HPV vaccine how long.

　　In this regard, some industry insiders have analyzed that there will be sufficient HPV vaccines in 2023, and although the demand for the nine-valent HPV vaccine that the public is concerned about will increase, the waiting time may be shortened compared to the previous ones.

Phenomenon

Under "One seedling is hard to find"

Zhifei Biotech lowers the purchase amount in 2025

　　"One vaccine is hard to find" Merck's nine-valent HPV vaccine, when the exclusive agent in China expired, still chose to deeply bind with its old partner Zhifei Bio.

　　Zhifei Biological announced a few days ago that it will continue to be the exclusive agent of MSD HPV vaccine, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine and other products. The agreement period will be until December 31, 2026.

Among them, HPV vaccine, as the main procurement product of Zhifei Biotech, is also the most concerned product in the market. The purchase amount has increased significantly from 28.106 billion yuan in the previous agreement period to 97.957 billion yuan.

　　Up to now, Merck's nine-valent HPV vaccine (trade name: Gadaxiu 9) is still the only nine-valent HPV vaccine approved for marketing in China.

Coupled with the endorsement of Merck, a "big pharmaceutical company", for Zhifei Biotech, its "monopoly" position in the domestic nine-valent HPV vaccine market has not been broken.

　　However, Zhifei Bio will reduce the basic purchase amount of HPV vaccines to 26.033 billion yuan in 2025, a decline of more than 20% compared to 2024.

This is also the first time that Zhifei Bio has reduced the purchase amount since the cooperation between the two parties in 2020.

　　In this regard, some market analysts believe that with the gradual increase in the acceptance of domestic bivalent HPV vaccines and the "imminent release" of domestic nine-valent HPV vaccines, the domestic market space of Merck HPV vaccines may be gradually diluted.

On January 30, the Red Star Capital Bureau interviewed Zhifei Biology with relevant questions, but it did not reply.

　　Red Star Capital Bureau noticed that in the investor relations activity sheet in January this year, Zhifei Biotech once expressed its opinion that although the amount of HPV vaccination has increased compared with previous years, the current market demand is still strong.

　　It is worth mentioning that the prosperity of the agency business has not given Zhifei Biotech any peace of mind.

　　Regarding the company's plan for the next 3-5 years, Zhifei Bio said that it will steadily promote self-developed products that have been on the market in the past one or two years, including Yika, a diagnostic reagent for latent tuberculosis infection, and preventive treatment products for latently infected people. Weika and the recombinant new crown protein vaccine Zhikweide.

behind

Sufficient amount of vaccine

Although the demand is large, the waiting time may be shortened

　　Behind Zhifei Bio's reduction of the basic purchase amount of HPV vaccines in 2025, the number of successful appointments for nine-valent HPV vaccines is growing rapidly.

In addition, the applicable population of the nine-valent HPV vaccine has expanded to women aged 9-45, which has also delayed its "tension" to a certain extent.

　　Red Star Capital Bureau recently learned from the "Yuemiao" platform that from 2020 to June 2022, the total number of appointments for the nine-valent HPV vaccine on the Yuemiao platform is about 1.3 million.

Among them, the number of appointments in the first half of 2022 is about 613,100, which is an increase of more than 60% compared to the number of appointments of about 370,000 in the whole year of 2021.

　　"Yue Miao" told the Red Star Capital Bureau that in the whole year of 2022, the number of appointments for HPV vaccines on the "Yue Miao" platform is about 5 million.

For the appointment volume of the nine-valent HPV vaccine in the second half of 2022.

It said that it has not yet been subdivided.

　　In addition, according to Zhifei Biotech's announcement, the number of batches of nine-valent HPV vaccines is growing simultaneously.

As of the end of the third quarter of 2022, Zhifei Biological's nine-valent HPV vaccine has issued 12.28 million units in batches, a year-on-year increase of 128%, which has surpassed the batch issuance of 10.2 million units in 2021.

　　On January 30, a staff member of the Xihe Public Health Center in Longquanyi District, Chengdu City told the Red Star Capital Bureau, "From December 2022, there will be more (9-valent HPV vaccine) on the market." According to private hospitals for HPV vaccines, there are nine-valent HPV vaccines in stock recently.

　　Regarding the future vaccine volume, on February 3, some people in the vaccine industry analyzed the Red Star Capital Bureau that the HPV vaccine volume will be sufficient in 2023. Although the demand for the nine-valent HPV vaccine that the public is concerned about has increased, compared with the previous wait time may be shortened.

　　It is worth noting that on August 30, 2022, "MSD China" announced that its nine-valent HPV vaccine was expanded from 16-26 years old to 9-45 years old, delaying the "age anxiety" of women of the right age.

　　Based on the sample size data of about 52,000 questionnaires from "Yuemiao", the attitudes of people of the right age who were waiting for HPV vaccines of different prices have changed.

Among them, more than 86% of the respondents aged 16-26 said they would continue to choose the nine-valent HPV vaccine; among those waiting for the age 27-45, 64% planned to make an appointment for the nine-valent HPV vaccine after age expansion.

observe

Domestic vaccine development

Sufficient stock available at any time

　　In addition, with the popularization of two domestically produced bivalent HPV vaccines, the age group of females receiving domestically produced bivalent HPV vaccines is greatly expanding.

　　According to the data provided by "Yuemiao", in 2020, 2021 and January-June 2022, the total number of reservations for bivalent HPV vaccines on the Yuemiao platform is about 390,000, 1.505 million and 1.743 million respectively.

Among them, domestic bivalent HPV vaccine appointments were about 98,000, 1.12 million, and 1.68 million, respectively.

　　In the first half of 2022, domestic bivalent HPV vaccine reservations accounted for more than 96% of the total bivalent HPV vaccine reservations.

　　Up to now, my country has launched 5 HPV vaccine products, forming a "3+2" HPV vaccine pattern of imported and domestically produced.

Imported products include Merck's quadrivalent and nine-valent vaccines (trade names: Gadaxiu, Gadaxiu 9) and GlaxoSmithKline's bivalent vaccines (trade name: Cervarix), while domestic products include Wantai Biologics (603392. SH) bivalent (trade name: Xin Ke Ning Cecolin) and Watson biological bivalent (trade name: Wo Zehui).

　　On February 8, the Red Star Capital Bureau randomly made an appointment for bivalent HPV vaccine products and noticed that both domestic and imported products are in sufficient stock and can be ordered at any time.

　　It is worth mentioning that in recent years, due to the promotion of manufacturers and the implementation of government vaccination projects, the popularity of domestic bivalent HPV vaccines has been promoted.

　　Taking Chengdu as an example, in September 2022, the Chengdu Municipal Health Commission, the Municipal Education Bureau, and the Municipal Finance Bureau revised the "Chengdu City Cervical Cancer Comprehensive Prevention and Control HPV Vaccination Implementation Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). All domestically-made bivalent seedlings are included in the project, and school-age girls who choose the latest Wo Zehui will be vaccinated for free.

　　At that time, the relevant person in charge of the Chengdu Municipal Health Commission told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the significance of the government vaccination project is to stimulate consumers' willingness to vaccinate themselves and pay attention to cervical cancer through the model of "small hands holding big hands", and at the same time increase the HPV vaccine. market supply.

Chengdu Commercial Daily-Red Star News reporter Deng Lingyao