China News Service, February 9th (China News Finance and Economics Ge Cheng) "Probably one out of every four new cars sold is a new energy vehicle." In 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will hit a new high. Car" more and more.

  Recently, the rapidly advancing new energy vehicle market has ushered in a wave of fierce "price wars".

Tesla's two domestic models have dropped to the lowest prices in history, and more than a dozen brands, such as Weilai and Xiaopeng, have also successively announced preferential policies for their new energy models.

What happened to the industry behind the price war?

Is now a good time to buy an electric car?

Tesla provokes a "price war" 

Weilai, Xiaopeng and others are in a dilemma

  In January this year, in the face of factors such as the official withdrawal of state subsidies for new energy vehicles and the early Spring Festival holiday, sales of most new energy vehicle companies declined.

  According to the latest data from the Passenger Federation, in January, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers across the country are estimated to be 410,000 units, a decrease of about 45% from December.

Among them, the sales of Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Ideal, which are the vanes of new car-making forces, have all declined month-on-month, and the monthly sales of many new force car companies have not exceeded 10,000.

New energy wholesale sales of major manufacturers in January.

Data source: Passenger Federation

  However, Tesla has promoted sales to "rise against the market" through the "price-for-volume" strategy.

Earlier this year, Tesla lowered the prices of models in major markets including China, the United States, and Europe.

Among them, the two domestic models on China's official website have dropped to the lowest prices in history.

From the perspective of sales data, in January, Tesla delivered more than 66,000 units in a single month in China, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% and a month-on-month increase of 18.4%, a record high.

  This "price war" started by Tesla has caused a dilemma for many new energy car companies at the same price.

According to financial report data, Tesla’s bicycle profit will exceed 60,000 yuan in 2022, far exceeding other car companies.

In contrast, the net profit of bicycles of most new car-making forces, including Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Ideal, is still negative.

The world's first Tesla Gigafactory workshop theme store.

Photo by Zhang Lang

  On the other hand, the efficiency of the automobile industry is restricted by scale factors.

Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, said that apart from luxury brands, it is difficult for car companies with a scale of less than 10,000 vehicles to survive and make profits.

  For most new energy car companies, choosing "not follow up" will face the unfavorable situation of market erosion and share decline; choosing "follow up" means keeping market share, but "losing money and making money".

In the midst of a dilemma, many new energy car companies chose the latter and started the "price-for-volume" competition.

  According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of 2023, more than ten brands including Weilai, Xiaopeng, Feifan, Aion, Jikrypton, and Wuling have successively announced preferential policies for their new energy models, with discounts ranging from thousands The price cuts range from 10,000 yuan to tens of thousands of yuan, and the price cuts of some models in stock of some brands even reach as high as 100,000 yuan.

In the next 3 to 5 years,

more than 60% of auto brands may be forced to "leave"?

  While the "price war" is intensifying, new energy vehicles are also facing challenges from unfavorable factors such as the withdrawal of subsidies and fluctuations in the supply chain.

Where is the new breakthrough in the fierce competition environment?

  Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle 100, believes that my country's new energy vehicle market will accelerate its sinking to second- and third-tier cities, and the product price range will change from "dumbbell-shaped" to "spindle-shaped".

In 2023, the demand for car purchases in second- and third-tier cities and even urban and rural markets will continue to be released, becoming an important incremental market for electrification.

  Zhang Yongwei said that in terms of product lines and price ranges, new energy vehicle companies will gradually expand to medium-sized car product ranges from the past strategy of focusing on the two model markets of "one large and one small".

The price war and brand war will start in the product price range of 150,000-300,000.

  According to his prediction, boosted by favorable factors such as stimulating consumption policies and increasing market supply, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to achieve a growth rate of 30%-40% in 2023, becoming the world's first new energy vehicle sales breakthrough. A country with a threshold of tens of thousands.

Data map: New energy vehicles.

Photo courtesy of Guangxi Department of Commerce

  However, judging from the market structure, the new energy vehicle industry will usher in a cruel "shuffle period".

According to An Qingheng, director of the China Automobile Industry Advisory Committee, with the gradual maturity of the market and the survival of the fittest in corporate competition, the number of industry brands will decrease sharply. Some new energy vehicle brands cannot afford continuous poor sales and huge losses. continue.

  "According to the current market capacity, 100 models will be saturated." According to Zhu Huarong's judgment, in the next 3 to 5 years, 60%-70% of car brands may be shut down and replaced.