Recently, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers summarized the overall situation of the Chinese auto market in 2022, and gave a forecast for the production and sales of the auto market in 2023.
According to statistics, the production and sales of automobiles in 2022 will be 27.021 million and 26.864 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 2.1%.
It is expected that in 2023, the automobile market will continue to show a steady and positive development trend, achieving a growth rate of about 3%.
"In 2022, despite the impact of many unfavorable factors, under the effective pull of a series of policies to stabilize growth and promote consumption, the Chinese auto market will recover and achieve positive growth under adversity as a whole, contributing an important force to stabilizing industrial development. "Recently, at the monthly information conference of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, summarized the overall situation of the Chinese auto market in 2022, and gave a forecast for the production and sales of the auto market in 2023.
According to statistics, the production and sales of automobiles in 2022 will be 27.021 million and 26.864 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 2.1%, continuing the growth trend of last year.
Among them, passenger vehicles achieved rapid growth, which contributed an important force to the slight growth throughout the year; commercial vehicles were at a low level with superimposed factors.
New energy vehicles continued to grow explosively. The annual sales volume exceeded 6.8 million units, and the market share increased to 25.6%. It gradually entered a period of comprehensive market expansion and ushered in a new stage of development and growth.
Automobile exports continue to maintain a high level, repeatedly hitting monthly record highs. Since August 2022, the average monthly export volume has exceeded 300,000 vehicles, and the annual export volume has exceeded 3 million vehicles, effectively stimulating the overall growth of the industry.
Chinese brands have performed brilliantly, seizing the opportunities of new energy and intelligent network transformation, making progress in an all-round way, and their product competitiveness is constantly improving. Among them, the market share of passenger vehicles is close to 50%, which is a new high in recent years.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that in 2023, the auto market will continue to show a steady and positive development trend, achieving a growth rate of about 3%.
High-end traditional fuel vehicles, comprehensive new energy vehicles
Looking at the annual car sales in 2022, January-February started well, with production and sales growing steadily; from March to May, production and sales in Jilin and Shanghai were hindered, and affected by the impact of the automobile industry chain in some regions, automobile production and sales fell off a cliff ; Since June, the purchase tax concessions have been implemented, and manufacturers' promotions have been superimposed on the low base due to the lack of cores in the same period last year. Automobile sales recovered rapidly and achieved a relatively high year-on-year growth rate.
Entering the fourth quarter, the growth of the terminal consumption market was sluggish, the release of consumer demand for cars was hindered, and the growth rate of automobile production and sales fell.
In December, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.383 million and 2.556 million respectively. The output decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, and the sales volume increased by 9.7% month-on-month, and decreased by 18.2% and 8.4% year-on-year respectively.
As the main force in the automobile market, the passenger car market has achieved rapid development, driven by consumption-promoting policies such as halving the purchase tax, and the continued high-speed growth of new energy vehicles.
In 2022, the production and sales of passenger vehicles will be 23.836 million and 23.563 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and 9.5% respectively; the production and sales of commercial vehicles will be 3.185 million and 3.3 million, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 31.2%.
Driven by a strong domestic consumer market, my country's total automobile production and sales have ranked first in the world for 14 consecutive years, and the passenger car market has exceeded 20 million for 8 consecutive years.
Since 2020, my country's auto market has achieved continuous positive growth, showing the development characteristics of "high-end traditional fuel vehicles and comprehensive new energy vehicles".
Chen Shihua told reporters that the current sales and growth of passenger cars are mainly concentrated in the A-class, with a cumulative sales of 2.386 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times.
Among them, the cumulative sales of traditional energy passenger vehicles were 9.688 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%.
Judging from the year-on-year growth rate, A00-class and A0-class fuel vehicles show the characteristics of rapid shrinkage, and B-class fuel vehicles are the only market that has achieved positive growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%.
All levels of new energy passenger vehicles showed positive year-on-year growth, showing a good trend of balanced development of all levels of the market.
It is worth mentioning that my country's new energy vehicles have developed rapidly in the past two years, ranking first in the world for eight consecutive years.
Chen Shihua said that under the dual effects of policies and the market, in 2022, new energy vehicles will continue to grow explosively, with production and sales of 7.058 million units and 6.887 million units, a year-on-year increase of 96.9% and 93.4% respectively, and a market share of 25.6%. , 12.1 percentage points higher than the previous year.
Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 5.365 million, a year-on-year increase of 81.6%; the sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 1.518 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times.
It is worth noting that due to the replenishment effect in December 2022 that overdraws part of the demand in advance, the terminal market will be under greater pressure in the first quarter of 2023, and sales may decline significantly.
Moreover, since my country's auto industry is in a critical window of transformation and upgrading, the stability and health of the consumer market is crucial to promoting high-quality development of the industry.
Chen Shihua said: "We suggest that the preferential policies on the purchase tax of traditional fuel vehicles and relevant local consumption promotion policies in 2023 should continue, and further tap and further release the potential of automobile consumption, so as to drive the development of the industry and help the economy run smoothly."
The auto market is at the end of short-term adjustment and will maintain moderate growth in the future
Regarding the trend of the Chinese auto market in 2023, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the total sales volume of the Chinese auto market is expected to be 27.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 3%.
Among them, the cumulative sales of domestic passenger vehicles are expected to be 23.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%; the cumulative sales of commercial vehicles are expected to be 3.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 15%; the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be 9 million, a year-on-year increase of 35%.
Xu Haidong believes that there will be six favorable factors and six unfavorable factors in the development of the auto market in 2023.
In terms of favorable factors, one is the moderate recovery of the macro economy.
Second, macro policies support automobile consumption.
Steady growth, expansion of domestic demand, and local subsidy policies have driven the recovery of underlying consumption and promoted automobile consumption.
Third, the liberalization of epidemic prevention and control is conducive to economic recovery.
The relaxation of domestic epidemic control is conducive to the development of market players, promoting the increase of employment income at the bottom, and supporting automobile consumption.
Fourth, overseas demand and new energy exports continued to grow.
The global auto market continues to pick up, Chinese brands continue to develop internationally, and the export of new energy vehicles plays a significant role.
Fifth, chip supply is gradually recovering.
The shortage of chip supply will be greatly alleviated in 2023.
Sixth, the demand for commercial vehicles bottomed out and rebounded.
As the economy recovers, the demand for commercial vehicles will gradually heat up.
In terms of unfavorable factors, first, the macroeconomic recovery is relatively weak.
Second, the recovery of consumer confidence is slow.
The decline in real estate investment, the slowdown in the development of the Internet and private enterprises, and the serious damage to market players have brought a major impact on consumer confidence.
The third is the uncertainty of the new crown epidemic, which may still have a certain impact on the recovery of the auto industry.
Fourth, the tight supply of chips will continue.
High-end, high-power chips are still in short supply, and chip allocation has an impact on car companies.
Fifth, local government support may decline.
Due to financial reasons, some local governments may reduce their support for automobile consumption.
Sixth, the impact of consumption overdraft.
The preferential policy of purchase tax in 2022 will trigger the early release of some consumption. At the end of 2022, the inventory of dealers will be high, and there will be pressure to destock in 2023.
In view of the trend of the new energy vehicle market next year, Wang Zidong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, believes that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in China's local market is likely to decline in 2023, followed by an oversupply of batteries.
At the same time, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that manufacturers' inventory in December 2022 will be 1.045 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%.
In 2023, the market needs to give priority to digesting the terminal inventory vehicles, which will put a lot of pressure on the entire new energy vehicle market.
Although there will be fluctuations in my country's auto market in 2022, from the perspective of long-term development, the current Chinese market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the late stage of popularization, and new car sales are gradually shifting from the incremental market to the stock market.
Xu Haidong believes: "The production and sales of China's auto industry are currently at the end of short-term adjustments, and will maintain a moderate growth trend in the future."
"We believe that with the implementation of relevant supporting policies and measures, market entities and consumption vitality will be further stimulated, and the development of the auto market in 2023 will be stable and positive." Chen Shihua said.
Wang Zhiyuan, trainee reporter of China Youth Daily and China Youth Daily Source: China Youth Daily