, Beijing, February 8 (Chinanews Finance and Economics reporter Li Jinlei) The increase has become the unanimous choice of recent international institutions on China's economic growth expectations.

  Right now, China is working hard to improve its economy and achieve an overall improvement in economic operation. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, believing that China's economy will usher in a rebound this year.

A series of high-frequency data also reflect that China's economic operation is improving.

On January 22, the first day of the first month of the Chinese Lunar Year of the Rabbit, citizens came to Cuihu Park in Kunming to play.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Liu Ranyang

China's economic prosperity has picked up significantly

  The International Monetary Fund issued a document on February 7 stating that as the flow of people and economic activities pick up after the lifting of the epidemic prevention and control measures, the Chinese economy will usher in a rebound this year, which will bring impetus to the global economy.

  The plan for a year lies in spring. After the Spring Festival, all localities actively implement policies and introduce policies to stabilize growth. With a fighting attitude and a strong momentum, they strive to run out of the "acceleration" of resumption of work and sprint for a "good start".

  Some leading indicators of China's economy have rebounded.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in January, the manufacturing purchasing managers index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1%, 54.4% and 52.9%, respectively, 3.1, 12.8 and 10.3 percentage points higher than the previous month.

The three major indexes all rose to the expansion range, and the level of China's economic prosperity has rebounded significantly


  Yang Daoling, director of the Big Data Analysis Department of the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center, told Zhongxin Finance and Economics that in terms of resuming work and production, the subway passenger flow and urban employment rate have rebounded rapidly.

The subway traffic heat index constructed based on the subway traffic data of 18 cities across the country shows that the index continued to recover in January, exceeding 100 points for several consecutive days, especially after the Spring Festival, the index rebounded rapidly, reaching 124.8 points at the end of January, the highest since this year. A new high, an increase of 63.1 points from the previous month.

  Yang Daoling pointed out that the on-duty rate index of workplaces in 80 large and medium-sized cities across the country based on daily interactive company traffic data also shows that as the resumption of work and production is accelerated in various places after the festival, the on-duty rate at the end of January is significantly higher than the low point during the epidemic in December last year. An increase of 14.3 percentage points.

Various data show that all localities are full of energy to promote the resumption of work, go all out to fight for the economy, and welcome the new start of this year's economic development with full energy.

International institutions have raised China's economic growth forecasts

  Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in charge of daily work, recently said that China's economy has strong resilience, great potential, and sufficient vitality. The fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed, and resource factors can be supported.

According to comprehensive research and judgment, the growth rate of the world economy may decline significantly in 2023,

while the Chinese economy is expected to rebound in general, forming an independent upward trajectory.

  The world economy in 2023 is indeed cloudy. The "Global Economic Prospects" report released by the World Bank at the beginning of the year lowered the global economic growth forecast in 2023 to 1.7%, and said that the global economy is "dangerously close to a recession."

  On the one hand, the world economy is pessimistic, but on the other hand, for the Chinese economy, international organizations have raised their growth expectations.

  In the latest "World Economic Outlook Report", the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year from 4.4% to 5.2%.

  In addition, Morgan Stanley raised it from 5% to 5.7%, and Goldman Sachs raised it from 4.5% to 5.5%.

Goldman Sachs Group believes that China's current market recovery is not only the recovery of consumption and service trade, but also "the recovery of growth across many industries and a broader basis."

  According to the World Bank's latest China Economic Briefing, as global demand growth deteriorates, the aggregate demand structure of the Chinese economy is expected to gradually shift towards domestic demand.

With the improvement of consumer confidence and the release of consumer demand, China's consumption will gradually recover; continued infrastructure investment spending and investor sentiment will also promote the recovery of investment growth.

Data map: A shopping mall in Zhengzhou welcomed many consumers during the Spring Festival holiday.

Photo by Han Zhangyun

"This is good news for China and the world"

  "According to our latest forecast, the Chinese economy will grow by 5.2% this year, compared to last year's growth rate of 3%.

This is good news for China and the world - the contribution of the Chinese economy to global growth is expected to Reached a quarter

." The International Monetary Fund issued a statement.

  IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gurancha believes that China's contribution to global economic growth in 2023 will far exceed that of the United States and the European Union.

  "China's macro-economy is improving again. The Chinese people and the Chinese economy are showing strong resilience. This resilience is admired by everyone." An Gaobo, President of Merck China, said bluntly to Sino-New Finance and Economics that 2023 is expected to become the "sail" of China's economy. A year of setting sail and a strong recovery".

  Guo Liyan, Director of the Comprehensive Situation Research Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomic Research, told Sino-Singapore Finance and Economics that a series of measures to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence have been implemented at an accelerated pace. Enterprises and local governments dare to act and pioneer. A year in which kinetic energy has been continuously stimulated, the structure has been continuously optimized, and the quality of the overall economic development has steadily improved.

  Hai Bo, representative of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in China, told the media that China has a super-large-scale market and is constantly promoting opening up and cooperation.

The international community is also looking forward to the strong growth momentum of the Chinese economy.

The growth of China's economy will play the role of "stabilizer" to the world and regional economic growth.