Our reporter Li Qiaoyu

  Xiong Yue, a trainee reporter

  According to the website of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, starting from February 6, travel agencies and online travel companies will resume inbound and outbound group tours and "air ticket + hotel" business between the Mainland, Hong Kong and Macau.

  On February 6, the first batch of outbound travel teams will leave soon, and some travel agencies have successively revealed the travel plans of the outbound travel teams.

It is reported that on February 6, the first batch of Guangzhou outbound tour groups will take the 0:15 flight from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport to Dubai; on the same day, 14 Sichuan tourists will join the group to Phuket, Thailand.

  The "Securities Daily" reporter checked the public information and learned that many OTA platforms have successively launched outbound group tour products including air tickets and hotels. On the group tour pages of some platforms, popular overseas tourist cities such as "Bangkok + Pattaya, Thailand" pushed to an important position.

  "It is expected that the demand for domestic outbound travel will be strong in the future," a tour guide who has been leading group outbound tours for a long time told the "Securities Daily" reporter excitedly. Since the beginning of the year, some online travel platforms and travel agencies have been preparing for outbound travel-related business.

  Listed travel companies take multiple measures to ensure travel

  Many listed travel companies in the tourism industry chain are taking active actions.

  "The first batch of products will be officially launched one after another. It is expected that the company's first outbound travel team this year will depart from Guangzhou for Egypt on February 10." Li Mengran, the media public relations manager of Zhongxin Tourism Group, told the "Securities Daily" reporter. It has been planned in advance. On the one hand, it actively connects with overseas resources, including hotels, flights, restaurants, foreign local pick-up teams, station wagons, Chinese drivers, etc.; on the other hand, it also prepares more refined in-depth tours for the first batch of 20 pilot countries. product.

  Zhongxin Tourism is also actively preparing for a longer-term travel plan.

Li Mengran told reporters that the North and South Pole products that will depart in 2023 and the 121-day cruise products that will travel around the world in 2024 are all ready.

"The first batch of 121-day round-the-world cruise products have all been sold out, and the company plans to add new cabins to meet the needs of tourists."

  Xu Xiaolei, chief brand officer of CYTS, told the Securities Daily reporter that CYTS has started preparations since the disclosure of the list of 20 pilot countries, and related products have been officially launched at the end of January.

In addition to the need to ensure that the product goes online as scheduled, it is also necessary to prepare for the repair and protection of the industrial chain.

  "CYTS has always paid attention to the maintenance of the industrial chain, so the partners are relatively stable. However, at present, there is a problem of the loss of ground pick-up personnel in many places, and the company is working hard to solve it. In addition, we are also asking the ambassadors of embassies in China to send invitations to Chinese citizens to guide China. Citizen travel." Xu Xiaolei said.

  Some airlines have adopted methods including increasing tickets to encourage travel.

According to the relevant person in charge of Cathay Pacific Airways told the "Securities Daily" reporter that Cathay Pacific Airways will send out round-trip tickets to Hong Kong, China in stages from March 1, 2023, and will start the activity in mainland China from April.

In order to meet the recovery of global travel, Cathay Pacific Group plans to operate 70% of the passenger flight capacity before the epidemic by the end of this year, and restore the passenger capacity before the epidemic by the end of 2024.

  Cash flow levels are expected to pick up in 2023

  With the resumption of outbound group travel, the performance of listed travel companies in 2023 is also expected to pick up. The reporter interviewed a number of tourism industry practitioners and learned that it is expected that with the resumption of outbound group travel, the company's operating income and cash flow level in 2023 will improve.

  Sorting through the performance and financial reports of listed travel companies, the reporter learned that outbound group travel business has become an important reason for restricting the recovery of some companies' performance.

Taking CYTS as an example, CYTS mentioned in the 2022 annual performance loss announcement that in 2022, the company's travel agency business will be difficult to carry out normally, and the occupancy rate of the hotel business will drop severely.

According to Xu Xiaolei, in 2019 and before, inbound and outbound tourism accounted for more than 85% of the company's travel agency business.

  Xu Xiaolei told the "Securities Daily" reporter that judging from the current environment, CYTS already has the external conditions for performance recovery.

"With the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism, CYTS and other related companies will benefit substantially. We still have strong performance expectations and confidence."

  According to the 2019 annual report disclosed by Caesars Tourism, Caesars Tourism’s tourism business revenue, including outbound travel, domestic travel, and inbound travel, was 4.92 billion yuan, accounting for more than 80%.

In the past three years, the tourism business of Caesars Tourism has been greatly impacted by factors such as the epidemic.

According to the 2022 annual performance forecast disclosed by the company, the tourism business and food business for the whole year of 2022 have not been carried out as planned, and the company's business cannot be fully recovered.

  According to the relevant person in charge of Caesars Tourism told the reporter, the just-passed Spring Festival Golden Week has brought a major turning point for the tourism and transportation industries.

During the Spring Festival, the Caesars Yishi catering business under Caesars Tourism has recovered to more than 70% of the same period in 2019.

  It will take time to return to 2019 levels

  According to the reporter's understanding, although the cash flow of listed travel companies is expected to pick up, it is still difficult for some companies to turn losses into profits.

  Li Bin, the store manager of Beijing Beilv International Travel Agency Co., Ltd. (Fengtai South Road store), told reporters based on the specific situation of his store that the business of outbound travel in 2019 and before generally accounted for 60% to 70%. Demand will gradually recover, but relatively slowly.

  Xu Xiaolei also believes that the recovery of outbound travel still takes time.

"Under positive expectations, outbound tourism in 2023 is expected to recover to 60% to 80% of 2019."

  On the one hand, the supply of outbound tourism products is still limited, the tourism industry chain is still under repair, it will take time for some international routes to resume, and some companies still need to resume and adjust their jobs and equipment updates.

On the other hand, the supply of products has pushed up the cost of travel for passengers, which affects travel enthusiasm to a certain extent.

According to the reporter's understanding, the price of outbound group tours has generally increased by 30%, and the price of group tours with Southeast Asia as the destination has risen to more than 10,000 yuan.

  In Xu Xiaolei's view, it is still impossible to judge when the tourism industry will return to the level of 2019, but this summer will become an important time to test the recovery of the market.

If the market recovers well this summer, it is expected that all relevant entities in the tourism industry chain will have stronger confidence in resuming supply.

  "In the context of the recovery of the tourism industry, it is a great benefit for the long-term loss-making listed travel companies." Kuang Yuqing, the research founder of Lens Company, told the "Securities Daily" reporter, but judging from the situation during the Spring Festival, the speed of passenger flow recovery Faster than the recovery rate of tourism income.

  According to data previously disclosed by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, there were 308 million domestic tourist trips during the Spring Festival this year, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, returning to 88.6% of the same period in 2019; domestic tourism revenue was 375.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, returning to 73.1% of the same period in 2019.

(Securities Daily)