(Economic Observer) China's economy is getting warmer
China News Agency, Beijing, February 3 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) At the beginning of the new year, the Chinese economy has shown signs of warmth.
Official data show that as a "weather vane" to measure the degree of manufacturing prosperity, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.1% in January, entering the expansion range for the first time since October 2022.
Among them, the new orders index was 50.9%, a significant increase of 7.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing market demand has picked up.
According to data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, China's non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.4% in January, up 12.8 percentage points month-on-month, ending a six-month decline, reflecting the accelerating recovery of non-manufacturing supply and demand.
Consumption, once sluggish, has also picked up recently.
According to Maoyan Professional Edition data, in just one month, the box office of Chinese theater movies in 2023 has exceeded 10 billion yuan, breaking the record for the fastest annual box office in Chinese film history to break 10 billion yuan.
Outbound travel, which had been silent for a long time, quickly resumed; in many luxury stores in large shopping malls, customers lined up again; and the popularity of restaurants gradually returned.
These new climates have boosted overseas confidence in China's economic prospects.
The World Bank predicts that China's economic growth rate will pick up to 4.3% this year.
According to the United Nations, this figure is expected to reach 4.8%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more optimistic. While judging that the world economic growth rate may only be 2.9%, it raised its forecast for China's economic growth rate to 5.2%, 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous forecast.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gulancha said, "We have seen the steady development of China's economy and the resumption of opening up, production and consumption. This is the most critical factor for us to raise our expectations."
The recovery of China's economy this time is directly related to the adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the overall epidemic situation in the country has entered a low epidemic level, and the competition among various regions to "fight the economy".
Judging from recent official statements, more powerful policies and measures will be implemented intensively in the future to accurately solve the "blocking points" and difficulties in economic operation, and promote the accelerated recovery of China's economy.
For example, in response to the weakening of external demand and the decline in orders, which are the biggest problems plaguing foreign trade enterprises, Li Xingqian, director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that it is necessary to "fully resume" the offline exhibition of a series of domestic export exhibitions such as the Canton Fair, and "full support" Foreign trade enterprises participate in various overseas professional exhibitions.
In view of the huge downward pressure on global transnational investment and the challenges brought about by China's investment attraction, Meng Huating, head of the Foreign Investment Management Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that he will implement the national treatment of foreign-funded enterprises, improve the cross-departmental coordination mechanism for foreign-funded enterprises at all levels, and protect the rights and interests of foreign investors in accordance with the law. .
Recently, many places have organized delegations to attract investment abroad and promote the local investment environment.
Wang Tao, head of Asian economic research and chief China economist at UBS, said that although China's economy improved significantly in January, some indicators were still lower than in 2019.
It is expected that from the second quarter of this year, the Chinese economy will rebound sharply. During the epidemic, the excess savings of the people may be released. The recovery of the service industry, especially the activities of small and medium-sized enterprises, will also help support employment and household income, both of which will help support the further recovery of consumption. .
Analysts believe that as the world's second largest economy and the largest trading partner of hundreds of countries and regions, China's accelerated economic recovery will not only benefit its own country, but will also lead the recovery of the sluggish world economy.
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