Sino-Singapore Jingwei, February 3rd (Fu Jianqing) At 24:00 on the 3rd, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open.
The agency expects that domestic refined oil prices will rise again.
In this round of pricing cycle, long and short factors are intertwined, and international oil prices fell again after fluctuating and rising.
As of the early morning of the 2nd Beijing time, WTI March crude oil futures were at $76.41/barrel, and Brent April crude oil futures were at $82.84/barrel.
On the news, on February 1, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee meeting reaffirmed the agreement reached in October last year.
Previously, members of the coalition agreed to reduce total output by 2 million barrels per day by the end of 2023.
However, the EIA inventory data added to downward pressure on oil prices, as U.S. crude oil inventories rose to a new high since June 2021 in the week to January 27 due to weak refining demand and sluggish exports.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone two rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "one up and one down". Gasoline prices have increased by 45 yuan/ton and diesel prices have increased by 45 yuan/ton.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculation, as of the ninth working day in China, the average price of reference crude oil is 82.90 yuan/barrel, with a change rate of 5.21%, and the corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be raised by 220 yuan/ton.
There is only one working day left before the price adjustment window, and this round of refined oil retail price increase is a foregone conclusion.
According to Zhuo Chuang Information's calculations, as of the ninth working day in China, the change rate of reference crude oil is 5.32%, and gasoline and diesel are expected to increase by 220 yuan/ton.
There is still one working day before the opening of the price adjustment window, and the probability of an increase in the retail price limit of refined oil this time is relatively high.
Calculated according to the current rate, it is estimated that the increase of 92# gasoline and 0# diesel will be 0.17 yuan and 0.19 yuan respectively, and it is estimated that it will cost about 8.5 yuan more to fill up a 50L box of 92# gasoline.
According to the principle of one adjustment every ten working days, the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on February 17.
For the market outlook, Longzhong Information reminds that although the recent positive factors are relatively strong, there are still inhibiting factors that cannot be ignored in the international crude oil market: first, the fact that the global economic recession still exists; second, the supply of crude oil market is still relatively sufficient in the short term; Third, the process of raising interest rates by central banks around the world has not ended.
Therefore, in the short term, the current crude oil market is still a situation of empty and good games, and neither a stable upward trend nor a downward trend has yet formed.
Jin Lianchuang also believes that the demand for crude oil from the Asian region is strong, and with the approach of sanctions on Russian oil products by Western countries, oil supply may be tight, which will support oil prices to a certain extent.
Affected by this, international crude oil prices may show a trend of first falling and then rising.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)