During the Spring Festival holiday this year, the tourism industry recovered rapidly, and some popular scenic spots and hot cities were crowded with people. The number of domestic tourists recovered to 88.6% of the same period in 2019.

  Among the many consumer industries hit by the epidemic, the tourism industry is the first to recover, so who will be the next industry?

Many consumer industries expect to recover

  Recently, the Chengdu Municipal Bureau of Expo announced that it will strive to hold 1,000 major exhibitions in 2023, with a total exhibition area of ​​9 million square meters and a total revenue of 85 billion yuan from the exhibition industry.

With the continuous optimization of the epidemic prevention and control policy, Chengdu will give full play to the economic function of the exhibition platform, comprehensively enhance the competitiveness of the exhibition industry and the driving force of the economy, and provide more physical workload for the stable and orderly development of the economy.

  Chen Qiankang, a professor at the School of History, Culture and Tourism of Sichuan Normal University, dean of the Institute of Labor and Practical Education, and president of the Sichuan Provincial Tour Guide Association, told Yicai that Chengdu is one of the largest exhibition cities in the western region.

With the rapid development of the social economy after the epidemic, the exhibition activities in Sichuan Province have also ushered in a new peak, and Chengdu has become a center city of exhibitions that has attracted domestic attention.

  He believes that large-scale exhibitions such as the Sugar and Wine Fair and the West Expo can not only achieve the purpose of attracting investment and promoting the development of the real economy, but also bring a large number of tourists to Sichuan's transportation, hotel, catering, sightseeing and other service industries, and promote tourism. The flow of capital to the central and western regions promotes the development of tourism in the west.

  Not only in Chengdu, but recently, the Shanghai Municipal Government issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Improving Confidence, Expanding Demand, Stabilizing Growth and Promoting Development" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), proposing 10 actions with a total of 32 measures to vigorously boost market expectations and confidence.

These include supporting the recovery and revitalization of the convention and exhibition industry, and supporting the accelerated resumption of various exhibitions.

  In the action of restoring and boosting consumption, the "Plan" proposes that the foreign economic and technological exhibition held in Shanghai in 2023 will be subsidized according to the actual venue rental expenses incurred by the organizer.

Support the promotion of the exhibition industry, and provide subsidies for the introduction of exhibition projects certified by authoritative organizations with global influence.

  At the 2023 Pudong New Area Convention and Exhibition Industry High-Quality Development Promotion Conference held on January 30, ten measures were released in Pudong New Area to support the high-quality development of the convention and exhibition industry. Promote the integration and sharing of resources, and form a joint force to actively promote the orderly recovery of Pudong's convention and exhibition industry.

  Under the impact of the epidemic, the exhibition industry and the tourism industry have almost encountered "stagnation". With the optimization and adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the exhibition industry and other service industries that drive strong consumption have also received attention. They have become places to boost consumption and stimulate the economy. An important breakthrough point for growth.

  At the same time, the show business industry has also begun to recover.

According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, according to incomplete statistics, there were more than 9,400 commercial performances nationwide during the Spring Festival holiday, a year-on-year increase of 40.92% over 2022 and a 22.5% increase over 2019, with box office revenue of 378 million yuan and about 3.238 million audiences. .

  According to statistics released by the National Film Administration, the box office of Spring Festival movies in 2023 will be 6.758 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.89%; the number of moviegoers will be 129 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.16%.

In the box office charts of the Spring Festival over the years, it is second only to the record of 7.843 billion in the Spring Festival in 2021, and has become the second-best-selling Spring Festival in mainland film history.

  The research report of Guosen Securities believes that the current life of residents has returned to normal, and the recovery of consumption data during the Spring Festival has also sent a positive signal. At the same time, policies to stimulate consumption are expected to be introduced intensively, and the overall continued recovery trend of the industry is clear.

  The Industrial Securities Research Report believes that in 2023, the subdivided industries that are expected to achieve a reversal of their difficulties are concentrated in the real estate chain (real estate development, real estate services), travel chain (airports, tourism and scenic spots), large consumption (hotel catering, clothing and home textiles, Internet, etc.) E-commerce) and Xinchuang (software development, IT services, computer equipment), media (film and television theaters, games, advertising and marketing) and semiconductors.

The recovery of consumption still needs to be catalyzed by various parties from the government and enterprises

  This year's Spring Festival consumption has shown a clear recovery trend in various industries.

According to the value-added tax invoice data of the State Administration of Taxation, during the Spring Festival holiday this year, the sales revenue of consumption-related industries across the country increased by 12.2% year-on-year, an increase of 12.4% over 2019, of which commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 10% and 13.5% year-on-year, respectively, compared with the 2019 Spring Festival. The average annual growth rate of holidays was 13.1% and 8.1% respectively.

  However, the full recovery of consumption will take time.

  Chen Qiankang said that, generally speaking, the boom in the domestic tourism market during the Spring Festival indicates that the domestic tourism industry has basically recovered, laying a good foundation for the next leapfrog development.

However, since outbound group tours will not be gradually released until February, the recovery of the international tourism market will take time.

The overall recovery of the entire tourism market is still hoped after the "May Day".

  He also introduced that the weather in most parts of Sichuan Province is currently warming up, and people's intention to travel is high. The backlog of outbound tourism demand for many years has shown a momentum of retaliatory growth. The sales of outbound travel products in July and July were very hot. Together with the international family visit market, they greatly increased the popularity of the outbound travel market.

  Yang Chang, head of the policy group of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute and chief analyst, told China Business News that the service consumption during the Spring Festival holiday has obviously recovered, which supports the recovery of consumption, but to ensure the sustainability of consumption after the "short-term jump", three clues are worth continuing to observe : One is consumption in kind, how to repair real estate, cars, etc.; the other is residents’ income and expenditure, that is, how to improve their consumption ability; and the third is consumption willingness, that is, how to reduce their willingness to save.

  Yang Chang said that in the financial data in December last year, residents' deposits increased by 2,890.3 billion yuan (the previous value increased by 2,250 billion yuan), an increase of 1,001.1 billion yuan year-on-year (the previous value increased by 1,519.2 billion yuan), which shows that residents' consumption ability has a foundation. After the optimization and adjustment of prevention and control measures, consumption conditions have been improved.

Whether the focus of follow-up observation, or the subjective willingness to convert into consumption, can be improved.

  According to the data from the Central Index Institute, during the Spring Festival in 2023 (January 21-January 27), the scale of new housing transactions in representative cities will maintain its leading position, a decrease of about 21% compared with last year’s Spring Festival holiday, and return to 75% of the Spring Festival in 2019. Only some cities Year-on-year growth was seen on a low base in the same period last year.

  The executive meeting of the State Council held on January 28 pointed out that it is necessary to address the outstanding contradiction of insufficient demand, take advantage of the momentum to promote the accelerated recovery of consumption as the main driving force of the economy, unswervingly expand opening up to the outside world, and promote the stability and quality of foreign trade and foreign investment.

  Among them, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to increase consumption.

Promote the full implementation of policies to help life service companies and individual industrial and commercial households, and promote large-scale consumption such as automobiles.

Organize and carry out a variety of consumption promotion activities to promote the recovery of contact consumption.

Reasonably increase consumer credit.

Make good use of the policy toolbox according to the city's policies, support rigid and improved housing needs, and do a good job in guaranteeing the delivery of buildings.

  In fact, judging from the local economic work conferences held at the end of last year, high expectations were placed on the recovery and expansion of consumption. All localities have clearly proposed to increase income, improve consumption conditions, and innovate consumption scenarios to release consumption in terms of policies and scenarios. potential.

  After the overall recovery of cultural and tourism consumption, the recovery of bulk consumption such as automobiles has become the focus of consumption growth.

  For example, the above-mentioned "Proposal" in Shanghai proposes to promote bulk consumption of automobiles and home appliances.

Continue to implement new energy vehicle replacement subsidies. Before June 30, 2023, individual consumers who scrap or transfer passenger cars registered in Shanghai and meet relevant standards and purchase pure electric vehicles will be given a subsidy of 10,000 yuan per vehicle. Financial subsidy.

Implement consumption subsidies for green smart home appliances, and provide consumers with a one-time subsidy of 10% of the payment amount, up to 1,000 yuan, for personal consumption such as green smart home appliances.