According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Germany has good prospects of avoiding a recession.

The country is an example of the resilience with which countries have mastered the energy crisis, said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas at the presentation of the updated economic outlook for the global economy.

Winand von Petersdorff-Campen

Economic correspondent in Washington.

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The biggest concerns were about German industrial production and Germany's economic activity when the freeze on Russian energy supplies was in the air.

However, the economy has proven to be surprisingly robust.

The IMF therefore revised the economic data slightly upwards for this year and next.

As a result, Germany is avoiding a contraction in its economy, which was still predicted in October, with mini growth of 0.1 percent this year and 1.4 percent in the following year.

"We're not saying that's strong growth," said the chief economist.

But it is quite possible that Germany will avoid a recession.

IMF economists cite the federal government's fiscal measures as one reason the economy was better able to cope with the energy shock.

In addition, less energy-intensive sectors would have compensated for the losses in sectors with high energy consumption.

prospects are brightening

In general, the updated economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is less gloomy than it was last October.

As a result, the global economy will grow more slowly this year at 2.9 percent than in the previous year (3.4 percent), before picking up again next year (3.1 percent).

The Ukraine war and the global fight against inflation are also continuing to weigh on the economy and are pushing growth rates down to a historic low.

But this year could be a turn for the better, with inflation falling and growth picking up, IMF economists expect.

The economic forecast stands in stark contrast to the recently published outlook from the World Bank, which calculated economic growth of 1.7 percent for this year.

The World Bank is more pessimistic about developments in the developed world and China.

Gourinchas gave the following reasons for the fact that, according to the IMF, the prospects have brightened slightly.

In many countries, consumption and investment have proved more resilient in the third quarter of 2022 than forecast.

Above all, Europe mastered the energy crisis better than calculated.

In addition, inflation has peaked in many countries.

This led to better financing conditions and a weakening of the dollar.

This makes it easier for emerging countries in particular to service dollar loans.

The IMF also expects positive economic stimulus from China's new Covid policy.

The country is lifting most of the restrictions.

"We generally see a significantly lower risk of recession than we did a year ago, both globally and in many countries," Gourinchas said.

Low growth in a long-term comparison

However, risks remained.

The war in Ukraine could escalate and drive up energy and food prices again.

China's economic recovery could be bumpier than hoped if new waves of infection paralyzed parts of the economy or the real estate crisis turned out to be more serious than currently calculated.

At 2.9 percent, the economic growth predicted for 2023 is well below the historical benchmark: from 2000 to 2019, the increase in growth was 3.8 percent on average.

The current growth also depends disproportionately on two countries: India and China contribute more than 50 percent of global economic growth.