Securities Times reporter Mei Shuang
At the beginning of the new year, Tesla took the lead in blowing the clarion call for price cuts, followed by Wenjie and Xiaopeng Motors, and the new energy vehicle market was bustling.
This time, Tesla entered the price into the hinterland of many competing models, and a new round of market competition kicked off.
From the perspective of terminal sales, the drastic price cuts have allowed Tesla to win more orders in the short term.
A reporter from Securities Times·e Company recently visited the site and found that the passenger flow of Tesla's stores in Shanghai has increased significantly, and the passenger flow of the delivery center is also constant.
"Every person in our store sells four or five cars every day. In order to meet the needs of customers to buy cars, our Spring Festival schedule is full." A store salesperson told reporters.
In addition, a staff member of the delivery center said, "A while ago, the number of cars delivered every day was around 200."
A number of interviewed industry insiders told reporters that the logic of Tesla's price reduction is to "exchange price for volume", and the short-term effect can be described as immediate.
In the long run, Tesla's selling price depends to a certain extent on the acquisition of final orders and the ability to reduce costs brought about by technological innovation, and the possibility of further price reductions cannot be ruled out.
In addition, the impact of Tesla's price cuts on its own brands and the industrial chain continues to ferment.
Tesla store traffic continues
"Now that the New Year's holiday is coming, the passenger flow will be slightly less. The hottest thing is when the price has just been cut." A salesperson at a Tesla store in Pudong New District, Shanghai, told reporters that there are 10 people in the store, and each person sells an average of 100,000 units per day. For four or five cars, customers place orders on the spot.
The reporter noticed that even though it is a working day, there is still a steady stream of customers visiting Tesla stores, and most of them will inquire about price reductions. Model Y has attracted more consumers to stop.
"Some customers don't even need a deposit, and they directly transfer from other brands to buy our cars." The salesperson said that "transfer orders" and referrals from old car owners are currently important customer groups for car purchases. Existing car owners and new customer point discounts.
On January 6, Tesla officially announced that the price of the Model 3 and Model Y domestic models on sale will be adjusted. The price cuts for the remaining versions of this model range from 20,000 to 48,000 yuan. This price adjustment has set a record for the lowest price in Tesla's China sales.
More than that, Tesla has successively lowered the prices of electric vehicles in Japan, South Korea, the United States, Canada and many European countries.
Regarding the reason for the price reduction, the sales staff of the two Tesla stores visited by the reporter said the same thing: "We mainly set prices at cost, and then we hope that more people will be able to drive Tesla." After the price reduction, the cycle of Tesla orders It also increased, and the pick-up cycle of Model Y was extended from 1-4 weeks to 2-5 weeks.
There are also market rumors that "Tesla sold 30,000 vehicles in 3 days after the price cut." Tesla store staff said, "The sales are indeed good, but the specific situation of each store is different, and the specific figures are not convenient to disclose. "
Later, the reporter saw at a Tesla delivery center in Pudong that dozens of cars waiting to be delivered were parked in the lobby, and customers came to pick up the cars from time to time.
"We haven't rested during this period, and almost 200 vehicles are delivered every day." The staff said.
"I bought it in the first week after the price cut. Now it's quite fast to pick up the car, and there will be gifts for picking up the car. My friend bought it last year. At that time, there were not so many car pick-up activities to enjoy." Take Mr. Wu of the good car told reporters.
Zhang Xiang, dean of the New Energy Vehicle Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College, told reporters that Tesla still adjusts prices according to the relationship between supply and demand.
"If the supply exceeds demand, or if the market share is seized by other brands, Tesla will increase sales and market share by cutting prices." At the same time, Tesla's profits are relatively high, and there is a lot of room for price cuts.
Zhang Jinhui, an analyst at ICC Xinyu Information, also analyzed to reporters that the core reason for Tesla’s price reduction is the decline in orders in hand, the decline in product competitiveness, and the slow change of models.
"The previous small price cuts did not increase too many orders. This time, after the cancellation of the state subsidy, Tesla chose to cut prices sharply, and the price hit a record low. The same is true globally. The main model has been a product for many years." Zhang Jinhui say.
"Tesla did not choose to cut prices multiple times in a small way this time, but to cut prices significantly, so as not to give customers time to wait and see, and to maximize more orders at one time." An analyst who did not want to be named said The reporter said that after Tesla chose to withdraw from the state subsidy, many car companies retrogradely lowered prices when they raised prices, which is more likely to have an impact on consumers' psychology and facilitate timely acquisition of orders.
Bright or dark?
Tesla has fired the first shot in the price war. Whether or not other car companies follow suit, the answers will emerge one by one.
The fastest follow-up to Tesla’s price reduction is Wenjie. On January 13, Cyrus AITO Wenjie announced price adjustments for several models. To 259,800 yuan, Wenjie M7 dropped 30,000 yuan to 289,800 yuan.
The reporter saw at the Wenjie store that compared with Tesla, the Wenjie store was a little deserted.
"After Tesla's price reduction, our corresponding policies came out soon. There are still a lot of people who pay attention. Many customers consult me on WeChat. At present, there are not many brands following the price reduction. Other brands are still raising prices. Customers are subsidized, and manufacturers are more conscientious." A dealer in Shanghai Wenjie told reporters.
Similarly, Xiaopeng also joined the price reduction camp on January 17. Among them, the price of Xiaopeng G3i was adjusted to 148,900-176,900 yuan, with a reduction range of 20,000-25,000 yuan; the price of Xiaopeng P5 was adjusted to 156,900-156,900 yuan 202,900 yuan, 23,000 yuan lower than before; the price of Xiaopeng P7 is adjusted to 209,900-249,900 yuan, with a price reduction of 30,000-36,000 yuan; the price of the G9 model that will be launched in September 2022 remains unchanged.
"On the first day after the price reduction, each person in our store sold three or four cars, part of which was a backlog of orders. Some customers were still hesitant after paying the deposit, and decided to pick up the car as soon as they saw the price reduction notice." Xiaopeng Motors Store sales told reporters.
"After we have basically lowered it, it will be the cost price. What is more terrifying than losing money from selling a car is that the car cannot be sold." An employee of Xiaopeng Automobile told reporters that every car has research and development costs, and only a large number of cars can be shared equally. From this perspective, price wars are inevitable.
In addition, the overall price of lithium resources has been lowered this year, so there is room to reduce the price of complete vehicles.
In fact, in addition to playing the obvious card of price cuts, there are also car companies that are "darkly dropping".
Recently, Aian announced that it is expected to raise the official guide price of its related models in early March this year, and the increase range will be 3,000-6,000 yuan.
Customers who paid the production scheduling deposit on the Aian APP before the official price adjustment notice is released will not be affected by the price adjustment.
In addition, Feifan Motors has launched a series of car purchase gift packages. Car owners who purchase cars before February 28 can enjoy a limited-time car purchase gift worth 21,000 yuan.
"Tesla has picked up the price butcher knife, and competing car companies will follow suit. Everyone is ordering, and price wars are inevitable." Zhang Jinhui believes that the result of price wars is that car companies that have not achieved economies of scale continue to lose money .
"Tesla's continuous price cuts will undoubtedly intensify the reshuffle in the mid-to-high-end market and the chain reaction of price cuts." Liu Kun, founder of the Battle Ants New Category Factory, told reporters that, for example, the recent price cuts of a certain brand are due to Tesla's external factors. There are also internal reasons for the decline in sales of its own brands.
"However, I think some brands should maintain strategic focus and stick to the high-end line, because the market still needs a purely high-end electric car brand. With Tesla's popularization strategy, the position of Tesla's high-end electric cars will also be handed over. Giving it up to others may also be an opportunity for other brands." Liu Kun pointed out.
Price cuts will be transmitted to the industry chain
Some people in the industry divided the car companies affected by Tesla's price cuts into three categories.
One is that before Tesla’s price cut, it remained in the same price range as Tesla. These brands often rely on their own cost-effective advantages to compete with Tesla. After this price cut, the advantages of these brands will be partly Loss, the price reduction pressure is also the greatest.
The second category, the original price is lower than Tesla, but due to Tesla’s price cuts, it has sunk into the price range of such car companies, but this type of enterprise brand is not as strong as Tesla, and this type of enterprise will also be affected by Tesla. Pull the impact of price cuts.
The third category, originally priced similar to Tesla, but has a certain brand power and product power.
Such companies mainly carry out differentiated competition strategies with Tesla based on differences in interior decoration or product positioning.
After Tesla's price reduction, it will also affect the mentality of these brand customers to order cars.
For example, wait and see whether it will follow up with Tesla's price cuts, thereby prolonging the car purchase decision cycle.
In addition, the impact of Tesla's price reduction may be further transmitted to enterprises in the industry chain.
"Tesla's price reduction mainly affects its own gross profit margin. In the supply chain, the price of power batteries will be reduced to a certain extent this year." Zhang Jinhui judged that Tesla's supply chain may return to the gross profit of the manufacturing industry.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Passenger Association, also pointed out that the core of electric vehicles replacing fuel vehicles is price competition, behind which is industrial innovation and cost control.
As the cost of batteries for electric vehicles gradually decreases, resources such as lithium mines will not continue to be a constraint.
The advantages of scale such as large-scale manufacturing and integrated die-casting will be further highlighted.
"At present, Tesla's price reduction mainly relies on itself to bear the cost pressure. Because of the large profit margin, it has the capital to reduce the price. Part of it has to be borne by the industry chain. If Tesla's purchase volume increases, the economies of scale will be more beneficial. Obviously, Tesla will have more confidence to negotiate with suppliers." Zhang Xiang told reporters.
Some people in the industry also analyzed to reporters that the current price cuts of car companies mainly rely on three points: the sacrifice of profits for complete vehicles, the reduction of lithium resource processing fees, and the reduction of midstream material processing fees.
In the future, as the impact of price cuts is further released and vehicle profits decline, the industry chain needs to share cost pressures, and each link bears different pressures, and further observation of changes in processing fees is needed.
Mo Ke, founder of the True Lithium Research Institute, told reporters that the pricing of domestic power batteries is mostly linked to resource prices, and the decline in resource prices means that the purchase price of power batteries has fallen in the same proportion, and it also means that the cost of electric vehicle products has dropped.
"In principle, the price of electric vehicle products should also decline like Tesla, but the price of most domestic electric vehicle products is now rising, mainly because the price of lithium resources generally rose in the previous period. A lot of power batteries have been purchased for the production of electric vehicle products, if the price of electric vehicles falls, it means that the automaker will lose money, so we see that the prices of many domestic electric vehicle products are going up.” Mo Ke said, Now that Tesla has cut prices, domestic automakers are in a dilemma. Following the price cuts, they will lose money, and the price increases will not be able to sell.
New products and new technologies are expected
activate market demand
Tesla, which took the lead in showing the price reduction card, what is the next card, and is it possible to continue to cut prices?
In this regard, the interviewed experts have different opinions, "This price reduction can be said to be in place in one step." Some experts also pointed out that Tesla's price reduction did not make essential changes to the product. In the long run, sales still have a ceiling. Less than expected, do not rule out the possibility of further price cuts.
Liu Kun analyzed to reporters that there are two strategic intentions behind Tesla’s continuous price cuts. Musk once said that he wanted to sell Tesla to 10 million units. What he really wants to do is to popularize electric vehicles and become a leader in the electric vehicle era. Toyota and Volkswagen.
"In addition, why Musk wants to pull down a high-end brand positioning, I think this is to seize the second traffic entrance. Because the car is no longer a simple means of transportation, the car will become the second mobile phone besides the smartphone Terminals and mobile space. The future commercial value of a car is not the sale of the car itself, but the various added values derived from the car terminal, such as data value, such as the mobile Internet ecosystem.” Liu Kun said.
On the other hand, the market is also pinning hopes on new products to activate new demands.
During the visit to the store, the reporter noticed that consumers are also concerned about when Tesla will launch a remodeled model or a new model.
In this regard, Tesla store sales all replied, "There is no official news yet, those are online transmissions."
Regarding the slow update of Tesla's new products, Zhang Jinhui believes that this is because Tesla still has a lot of orders in hand, supply exceeds demand, and the production capacity of German factories is climbing slowly.
Under the current price system, Tesla will launch a facelift this year, including product strategy, price strategy, production capacity, etc., will need further consideration.
"Tesla's old models have been on the market for a very long time. If there is a new remodeled model, it will inject fresh blood into Tesla. Consumers are more willing to experience new technologies, which will also help sales. It will be bigger." Zhang Xiang said.
In addition to price strategy adjustments, in 2023 more new energy car companies will focus on the iteration of new products and new technologies, and the industry is still optimistic about the development of new energy vehicles.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 9 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 35%.
Founder Securities Research Report pointed out that new energy vehicles are still booming, and new technologies continue to be industrialized.
With the rapid development of the industry, in 2023, the new energy vehicle industry chain will benefit from the expansion of the industry and company scale and grow.
In addition, new technologies will be implemented quickly, such as 46-series batteries, pet copper foil, sodium batteries and fast charging. These new technologies will further promote the healthy development of the industry.