The World Economic Forum (WEF) does not have a crystal ball for predicting the future.

In its Global Risk Report a year ago, presented five weeks before Russia attacked Ukraine, the word war did not appear.

The risk of "conflicts between states" appeared tiny, only ranked 27th on the list of globally important risks, as recalled on the podium presenting the new WEF report.

Philip Pickert

Business correspondent based in London.

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Since then, war and sanctions have shaken the global economy.

The World Economic Forum fears that threats to feeding the world's population and the global energy supply threaten to undo "decades of progress".

In its new Global Risk Report 2023, presented in London on Wednesday, the WEF paints a bleak panorama of risks and dangers.

The report, published just before the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos next week, is based on responses from 1,200 experts, scientists, politicians and risk managers.

Gloomy outlook

In her opinion, the cost of living crisis will dominate over the next two years, followed by natural disasters and extreme weather events and geoeconomic confrontations.

At the end of the top ten risks, you see large migration movements.

In the medium term, however, climate change and environmental threats are clearly at the top.

The whole series of risks listed by the WEF reads ominously and unusually grim.

"We are seeing the return of 'older' risks -- inflation, the cost of living crisis, trade wars, capital outflows from developing countries, widespread social unrest, geopolitical confrontations and the specter of nuclear war -- that few in the current generation of business leaders and policymakers have yet seen." , according to the WEF summary.

This is compounded by newer risks such as unsustainable debt levels, low growth, deglobalization and accelerating climate change.

The chance that the world will limit global warming to 1.5 degrees in the pre-industrial era is dwindling.

"Climate change is an existential threat to the planet and the window to net zero is closing," said John Scott of insurance group Zurich, a contributor to the WEF report.

More must be done, both to prevent and to adapt to climate change.

Danger of a "poly crisis"

In the next ten years, the respondents see six environmental hazards among the top ten risks, including prominently the danger of a dramatic loss of biodiversity, as the extinction of animal and plant species.

There is also a shortage of natural resources.

There is a risk that all factors will combine into a "poly crisis" around the year 2030.

The coming economic era will be marked by the threat of stagnation, divergence and hardship, it is said gloomily.

Unlike in the 2022 report, which was still shaped by Corona, this time the experts surveyed no longer see infectious diseases as major acute or medium-term threats.

Viruses and the like are only in twentieth place. The 1,200 respondents also do not rate the risk of military wars very highly.

They do not see interstate conflicts as a top ten risk.

Instead, the term “geoeconomic conflicts” appears more prominently.

This means economic wars and sanctions.

Cyber ​​warfare and hacker attacks are also part of this.

"Companies that don't invest in cybersecurity end up in a situation where they're uninsurable," said Carolina Klint of insurance broker Marsh, who also contributed to the report.