China News Service, January 18th. The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 18th. Zeng Yande, chief agronomist and director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced at the meeting that live pigs are important agricultural products and important livelihood products.
In the eating habits of the Chinese, pork is a must for the table, and it can also be said to be an important factor reflecting the level of well-off.
Judging from the situation last year, I can tell you with relief that 699 million pigs were slaughtered last year, an average of one pig per two people. Our supply of live pigs is guaranteed.
Zeng Yande said that it was an important time to prepare new year's goods. Judging from the perennial situation, the price of live pigs should be high at this time, but this year's situation is a bit special. It is different from previous years. The supply of live pigs presents three new features: One is the increase in sales.
According to the general monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the number of pigs slaughtered in December increased by 18.3% month-on-month and 7.3% year-on-year.
Second, consumption is weak.
Affected by the new crown epidemic, catering and group consumption have not yet fully recovered, and pork consumption has appeared "not busy in peak season".
The third is the price drop.
In the second week of January this year, the national average price of live pigs was 16.3 yuan/kg, falling for 11 consecutive weeks, lower than the breeding cost of 16.7 yuan, and some farms suffered losses.
Zeng Yande emphasized that price fluctuations are inevitable for the market trend of live pigs in the future, and our goal is to reduce the frequency and magnitude of fluctuations.
From the perspective of the trend, the key is to look at three factors: First, the number of breeding sows.
At the end of December, the number of fertile sows in the country was close to 44 million, which was 107% of the normal number of 41 million. That is to say, it was a little more than the normal number and slightly higher than the upper limit of the green and reasonable production capacity regulation area.
The second is the stock of medium and large pigs.
In November and December, the stock of 5-month-old medium and large pigs in large-scale pig farms across the country increased by 10.9% and 5.6% year-on-year respectively, and these pigs will be slaughtered around the Spring Festival.
The third is the number of newborn piglets.
In the early stage, the number of newborn piglets increased a lot. These pigs will be slaughtered in about 6 months, and the market will increase in the later stage.
Based on a comprehensive judgment, before and after the Spring Festival, there will be no fewer live pigs slaughtered than in the same period last year. In addition, after the festival, pork consumption enters the off-season, and the trend of low pig prices is obvious, and pig farming may enter a phased loss.
(China New Finance and Economics)