There have recently been the first tentative signs of at least a certain weakening of inflation.

The inflation rate in Germany in November and December was not quite as high as it was in October.

And the prices at company level, the changes in which are often reflected in consumer prices with a time lag, have even fallen on a monthly basis.

The Federal Statistical Office reported that producer prices fell by an average of 3.9 percent in November compared to October.

And wholesale prices, for which there are separate statistics, fell by 0.9 percent in November – and by another 1.6 percent in December.

Paper became extremely expensive in 2022

Christian Siedenbiedel

Editor in Business.

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One example is paper prices.

In the past year, they had risen at an unbelievable rate, keeping many sectors of the economy in suspense.

There were various reasons for the sharp rise in prices within a comparatively short period of time.

In addition to long-term developments in the industry and delivery bottlenecks after the corona lockdowns, as in many sectors of the economy, expensive energy played a role in particular - in particular the price of natural gas, which is sometimes used on a large scale in paper production.

In addition, the Ukraine and Russia had been important wood and pulp suppliers before the Ukraine war;

this too is said to have had a negative impact on the availability of paper and pushed up the price.

In the meantime, however, there is a first small kink in the curves for price development.

Producer prices for paper and cardboard rose steadily up to October last year.

But then there was apparently a certain reversal – and in November prices fell by around 1.7 percent on average compared to the previous month.

This means that they are still significantly higher than a year ago, and the further development is of course not certain.

But first of all, they didn't climb any further.

It was similar with corrugated board and packaging material made of paper, cardboard and cardboard.

By October, there had been a steady rise in prices to extraordinary highs, worrying many companies that rely on packaging.

In November, however, prices fell compared to the previous month, albeit only by 0.3 percent.

According to statistics, the price of newsprint, which had also risen exceptionally last year, fell again in November after a high for the year in October, by at least 3.6 percent.

This means that newsprint remains expensive, and no one knows for sure whether prices will pick up speed again.

Nonetheless, it is a remarkable change.

Energy surcharge is reduced

Many observers are still a bit cautious - after all, who knows how winter, gas consumption, energy prices and the paper market will continue.

"The market situation for paper remains complicated and inconsistent," commented the information service EUWID Paper and Pulp.

In the case of graphic papers, the upward price trend seems to have broken, it was said.

At least paper mills have often started to reduce previously charged energy surcharges - or to do without such surcharges altogether.

In wholesale, for which there are separate statistics, the price of paper has at least stagnated recently.

Up until October, the prices for paper and cardboard rose continuously here as well.

In November they then increased a little – and stayed the same in December.

However, another price development that some consumers may have followed carefully in the supermarket has not yet reversed: toilet paper, which had become scarce and expensive during the Corona period, continues to rise in price.

According to consumer price statistics, it has become around 40 percent more expensive on average over the year.

In November 2022 alone, the price increase compared to the previous month was a good 3.1 percent, and then another 3.4 percent in December.

So far, there has been no sign of any relief for consumers with this product - even if the prices are not quite as extreme as in the chaos of the early pandemic period, when empty shelves were sometimes found by dealers who quickly doubled their price or paid 20 euros for it wanted a pack.