(Economic Observer) Expert Analysis of China's Negative Population Growth: Doesn't Mean Demographic Dividend Disappears

　　China News Agency, Beijing, January 17th (Liu Wenwen) The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on the 17th that the national population at the end of 2022 (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities and active servicemen, excluding those living in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities) Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners) reached 1,411.75 million, a decrease of 850,000 from the end of the previous year.

　　According to public information, this is the first negative population growth in China in the past 61 years.

　　Yuan Xin, a professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University and vice president of the Chinese Population Association, told China News Agency that 2022 will be a year of negative population growth in China, but it does not mean that the demographic dividend will disappear.

　　He stressed that we must see the stages of population development.

The early stage of negative population growth is a mild population decrease, so the inertia of a large population will still be followed; but in the long-term stage of negative population growth, if the fertility rate has not rebounded, it may lead to a linear reduction.

　　"We are still in the inertia of a huge population. A huge population means a huge potential market. Along with sustained economic development, higher income levels, and strong consumption power, the resulting super-large market size is immeasurable," Yuan Xin said. .

　　Qu Hongbin, vice chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, pointed out, "The demographic dividend that we used to rely solely on the number of working-age population is slowly disappearing, but the demographic dividend should have a broader definition, not only based on quantity but also on quality." China's demographic dividend has not completely disappeared, because human capital is a more important factor affecting labor productivity, and China's human capital is expected to continue to increase in the future, and investment in education can further increase the advantages of human capital.

　　"Improving the quality of the working population through education can create a new demographic dividend. As long as it is done well, it can completely offset the decline in the working population." Qu Hongbin said.

　　The data of the day also showed that China's urbanization rate will be 65.22% by the end of 2022, an increase of 0.50 percentage points from the end of the previous year.

"The increase in the urbanization rate shows that the mobility of China's population continues to increase, which not only activates the domestic population cycle, but also promotes the optimal distribution of population space, providing a steady stream of labor resources for the entire economic and social development." Yuan Xin said.

　　Yuan Xin said bluntly: "At present, China's population opportunities are undergoing transformation. It is characterized by a comprehensive population opportunity, which is characterized by a large population size, huge human resources, enhanced human capital, active population mobility, and open longevity opportunities. Large-scale, resource-based , quality, configuration, longevity and other mixed population opportunities, which is the population basis for promoting and expanding Chinese-style modernization."

　　In fact, international experience shows that negative population growth does not mean negative economic growth.

Liu Houlian, an associate researcher at the China Population and Development Research Center, said: "We have observed negative population growth and economic growth in 13 countries since the 1990s. These countries still maintained economic growth when experiencing different degrees of negative population growth. It can be seen that, Negative population growth is not the decisive factor for economic recession, and negative population growth and economic growth can coexist.”

　　Some experts also gave relevant suggestions on how to properly deal with negative population growth.

Song Jian, a professor at the Population and Development Research Center of Renmin University of China, believes that in order to encourage childbearing, in the process of building a childbearing support system, we must pay attention to family development, reduce family burdens, improve family development capabilities, and create necessary conditions for reversing the plight of low fertility.

　　Tong Yufen, a professor at the School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, believes that in the era of negative population growth, the effective supply of labor can be increased by accelerating the labor force participation rate. The utilization rate of resources, such as increasing labor supply by strengthening manpower training and increasing labor participation rate.

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