(Economic Observer) Standing on the 120 trillion yuan mark, how will China's economy "recover" in 2023?
China News Agency, Beijing, January 17th (Reporter Xia Bin) The epidemic has repeatedly impacted and multiple overseas crises have superimposed. The Chinese economy has withstood the pressure and moved forward. In 2022, the GDP will stand at 120 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below) Ozeki, how should we treat such a "transcript"?
How will China's economy go in 2023?
On the 17th, China News Agency held the "National Affairs Forum: Analysis of China's Economic Situation in 2023" in Beijing. When reviewing last year's economic performance, many participating experts talked about joys and worries. When looking forward to next year's economic trend, "recovery " has become a high-frequency keyword.
Zong Liang, chief researcher of the Bank of China, believes that in 2022, China's economy will have risks and hidden worries, and there will be good in the bad and worries in the good.
For example, the growth rate of fixed asset investment reached 5.1%, the rapid growth of high-tech and digital economy, and the negative growth of consumption.
On the whole, many factors driving China's economy have appeared "the east side is not bright and the west side is bright", which reflects the resilience of China's economic development and is also the basis for the next step of development.
Bai Ming, a foreign trade expert from the Economic and Trade Policy Advisory Committee of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that from the perspective of trajectory operation, the trend of China's foreign trade in 2022 will be "M"-shaped: the growth rate at the beginning of the year was relatively high, declined in March and April, rebounded in May, June and July, and then gradually decreased. Explore.
"It's not been particularly common in the past."
He pointed out that this shows that China's foreign trade is facing complex pressures and challenges. Sometimes the pressure is greater, sometimes the pressure is less, sometimes the support policy is more effective, and sometimes the support policy does not achieve the expected purpose.
After the "special" 2022, what is the prospect of China's economy in 2023?
Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets and director of the China Chief Economist Forum, said bluntly that the short-term impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy will take time to be further repaired, as long as the economic fundamentals continue to be stabilized.
He believes that at present, China needs to restore economic growth to the potential growth rate as soon as possible to boost business and consumer confidence.
If China can continue to stabilize its economic fundamentals in the future, the whole society will prosper, and everyone will move forward and work together with one voice. I believe that China's economic prospects after "recuperation" will be even more promising.
Zhao Xijun, co-director of the China Capital Market Research Institute at Renmin University of China, predicts that various indicators, including consumer retail sales, will generally stabilize, and volatility will be much lower than in 2022.
The entry point for expanding domestic demand in 2023 is to improve social and psychological expectations and boost development confidence.
In the consumer sector, Zhao Ping, deputy director of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Research Institute, said that with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and the resumption of work and production, the period when the epidemic had a great impact on commerce and the service industry has passed.
Therefore, the recovery of the future prosperity is an inevitable trend.
The inflection point of China's consumption has appeared, and has entered an upward channel.
She believes that the general trend of consumption this year should gradually stabilize, and the prospects are particularly broad.
In the recovery process of the consumer market, for commercial enterprises, it is necessary to strengthen the integration of online and offline, strengthen the integration of domestic and foreign trade, and strengthen the integration of cross industries. Attention should also be paid to the new consumption opportunities brought about by an aging society.
In the field of foreign trade, Bai Ming said that after the adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the rebound of foreign trade will take a process, and it is expected that the rebound of foreign trade may be in the second and third quarters of this year.
In the future, efforts should be made to consolidate the foundation of the foreign trade industry, and close attention should be paid to the economic recovery in Europe and the United States.
In the field of real estate, Ni Pengfei, director of the City and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that real estate has undergone deep and comprehensive adjustments last year, but it is by no means a "hard landing."
Real estate is approaching a reasonable range.
In 2023 and for a period of time to come, if there is no impact of unexpected events, the overall trend of real estate will be weak volatility and recovery, and it is impossible and should not increase significantly.
Zhao Xijun reminded that in 2023, local governments should focus on debt sustainability and risk control, and the central government will not cover local debt.
Monetary policy must be precise and powerful, and liquidity must be as reasonable and abundant as last year.
Zong Liang said that China has properly solved the problem of coordinating economic growth and epidemic prevention and control, which has laid a good foundation for economic growth in 2023. The growth rate in the second and third quarters will enter a period of rapid development." (End)