Our reporter Meng Ke
Trainee reporter Han Yu
According to the "Securities Daily" reporter, as of January 15, 28 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) including Guangdong and Hainan have successively held local two sessions, and the average GDP growth target of 28 provinces in 2023 is 6.0%.
Combining the GDP growth targets set by various regions in 2023 to see the development momentum of various parts of the country, the reporter of "Securities Daily" interviewed seven chief economists.
They generally believe that in 2023, my country's economy will experience more obvious, comprehensive and positive improvement, and the national GDP growth rate will be above 5%.
With the support of a series of policies, my country's economy will be more driven by domestic demand, and promoting consumption and stabilizing investment will become the main force.
The GDP growth targets of Hainan, Chongqing and other places in 2023 have been raised compared with 2022. Among them, the GDP target set by Hainan is 9.5%, ranking first; Tibet ranks second with 8%, and Jiangxi and Xinjiang are tied for third with 7%.
"Some provinces have raised their GDP growth targets, which shows that the current economic operation has maintained a recovery and stabilization trend. All departments and regions are seizing the window period, the opportunity period, and the tough period to sprint, and the word is stable and the progress is steady. "Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Head of Research Department of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily.
Among the 28 provinces mentioned above, the GDP growth targets of 18 such as Tianjin and Hebei have been lowered.
In this regard, Zhao Wei, chief economist of Sinolink Securities, analyzed that although most provinces have lowered their GDP targets for 2023, it does not mean that they are pessimistic about economic development this year.
When looking forward to the national GDP growth rate in 2023, Zhao Wei believes that past experience shows that the GDP growth targets of Shanghai and Beijing are relatively close to the national targets. The high probability of the quick target is also at the level of 5.5%.
Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute of Chuancai Securities, said that the national GDP growth rate in 2023 may be around 6%, of which the second quarter will be affected by the low base effect, and the growth rate will increase significantly.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, analyzed that the risk of overseas economic recession will gradually increase in 2023, inflation may accelerate to fall, and the Fed may switch from raising interest rates to lowering interest rates.
It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of China's real GDP will reach 5% or even higher in 2023.
Mingming, the chief economist of CITIC Securities, also said that all localities put "steady growth" in a more prominent position and concentrate on economic construction, which will strongly support the stabilization and recovery of the national economy.
It is expected that my country's economy will improve as a whole in 2023, and it is expected to achieve a GDP growth rate of more than 5%.
"It is expected that my country's GDP growth rate will return to 5% in 2023." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, my country's consumption and production activities will return to normal, and economic growth will pick up quarter by quarter. , confidence will continue to increase.
Talking about the focus of stabilizing the economy, promoting development, and strengthening confidence in the next stage, Pang Ming believes that the key to economic recovery in 2023 still lies in fully expanding effective social demand, especially actively expanding domestic demand.
It is expected that the next stage of economic work will be supported by the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment, and stabilize the confidence of market entities and the expectations of the resident sector.
Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, analyzed that the global economy is likely to continue to weaken in 2023, which will make my country's exports face a more severe situation. This means that this year's economic stabilization must rely more on domestic demand, and macro-control is supporting domestic demand. Full efforts should be made in repairing, and various policies should be put to good use.
"Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will continue to take on the important task of stabilizing investment and promoting growth." Chen Li believes that digitalization and intelligence, carbon neutrality and green development are the key directions for the transformation and upgrading of my country's manufacturing industry. The transformation and upgrading of the equipment will bring a lot of equipment update and transformation needs.
In the future, it is still possible to increase support for high-end manufacturing and technological innovation, and manufacturing investment will undertake the task of supporting the economy to a certain extent.
Driven by the current policy of stabilizing growth, new and old infrastructure fields have joined forces to help my country's economy develop steadily and healthily.
(Securities Daily)