Reporter Meng Ke trainee reporter Han Yu
Recently, local two sessions have been held one after another.
The 2022 report cards have been announced in many places, and the economic development goals for 2023 have been determined.
Among them, many cities such as Jinan and Hefei have set their GDP growth targets for 2023 above 5.5%.
"Judging from the 2023 economic development goals determined by various places, they are generally full of confidence in economic recovery." Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at the Star Map Financial Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from the "Securities Daily". For many first-tier and new first-tier cities , the economic strength is generally strong, the industrial foundation is more solid, and the growth momentum is relatively stronger, so the growth rate target is very likely to be achieved.
At the same time, all localities can also use financial means to promote the realization of economic growth goals.
Many places announced this year's GDP growth target
According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, as of January 8, at least six cities including Jinan, Qingdao, and Changsha have announced their GDP growth targets for 2023, and the values are concentrated between 5.5% and 7%.
Among them, Jinan City proposed in the 2023 government work report that "the main expected goal of economic and social development is: regional GDP growth of more than 5.5%"; Qingdao City proposed that the expected GDP growth rate in 2023 is about 5.5%; Hefei The city expects that the regional GDP will grow by about 3.6% in 2022, and the total economic volume will exceed 1.2 trillion. The estimated growth target in 2023 will be more than 6.5%. Changsha City expects that the regional GDP will grow by about 7% in 2023.
"Currently, the expected growth targets released by Jinan, Qingdao and other places remain between 5.5% and 7.0%, indicating that in the context of continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, these cities have relatively optimistic expectations for economic recovery. Everyone expects that all walks of life and investment and consumption can return to normal in the future, and promote a relatively large rebound in economic growth.” Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily.
The Central Economic Work Conference held in mid-December 2022 pointed out that "the current foundation for my country's economic recovery is not yet solid, the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations is still relatively large, and the external environment is turbulent and turbulent. The impact is deepening. However, we must see that my country's economy has strong resilience, great potential, and sufficient vitality.
Fu Yifu believes that with the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, all walks of life are returning to normal operation.
Reviving the economy in 2023 has also become the top priority of all regions. Considering the low base effect in 2022, it is expected that my country's economy may usher in a strong rebound in 2023.
Liu Xiangdong further stated that all localities put "steady growth" in a more prominent position and concentrate on economic construction, which will also strongly support economic stabilization and recovery.
It is expected that local governments will continue to do a good job in supply-side structural reform and expansion of domestic demand, make good use of monetary, fiscal, industrial, technological, and social policies, strengthen the coordination of various policies, and promote the overall improvement of economic operation.
Make good use of financial tools to boost the economy
In the government work reports of many places, relevant work on the use of financial tools has been deployed, and many places have mentioned the need to make good use of policy and developmental financial tools.
For example, Jinan City proposed in the 2023 government work report that it is necessary to "make good use of special bonds and policy development financial instruments, plan and implement a number of PPP projects, steadily promote the pilot project of infrastructure REITs, and promote more projects to enter the national and provincial support. Encourage and attract more private capital to participate in the construction of major projects and make up weak links. Strictly manage the agency construction system of government-invested projects and improve the efficiency of the use of financial funds.”
Hefei City stated in the 2023 government work report that it is necessary to "deepen the investment 'horse race' incentive mechanism, optimize the whole process of project approval, expand multiple financing channels, actively strive for policy-based financial instruments, investment in the central budget, and issue government special bonds of 40 billion yuan. Yuan. Precisely carry out "double recruitment and double introduction", and strive to introduce about 10 of the world's top 500 companies and attract 25 major projects of more than 5 billion."
Zhengzhou City also stated in the "2023 Zhengzhou Municipal Government Work Report Excerpt" that it will "do a good job in 1,000 key provincial and municipal projects, complete an annual investment of more than 500 billion yuan, increase the proportion of industrial project investment to more than 48%, and strive to sign contracts" There are more than 120 projects in three batches. Focusing on special bonds and policy-oriented and developmental financial instruments, there are 300 key projects in the reserve province, and projects exceeding 1 billion yuan account for more than 50%.”
According to Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, under the requirements of accelerating the construction of a modern infrastructure system, a large number of major projects and key projects will start construction one after another in 2023, and the demand for new funds for infrastructure projects is still high.
Taking various factors into consideration, it is estimated that the scale of special bond issuance in 2023 will be about 3.8 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 150 billion yuan from the 2022 budget.
However, Wen Bin further stated that due to the limited space for special debt increase, "quasi-fiscal" tools may increase support, and the scale of policy and development credit is expected to further increase on the basis of 2022, and the scale may exceed 2 trillion yuan.
Liu Xiangdong believes that when all localities make good use of financial tools to boost the economy and expand domestic demand, they must coordinate the relationship between credit expansion and risk prevention.
Starting from repairing the balance sheets of enterprises, banks and households, create a favorable policy environment, focus on making good use of credit resources, promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs, and at the same time stabilize the debt leverage ratio so that it does not rise sharply.
"The key to using financial means to promote the realization of economic growth goals is to truly play the supporting role of finance in the development of the real economy, especially to better relieve difficulties for small, medium and micro enterprises." Fu Yifu said that all regions need to focus on key areas and priorities The industry, through financial innovation, improving the credit system, accelerating the construction of direct financing channels, and improving the multi-level capital market, etc., can solve the problem of difficult and expensive financing for small, medium and micro enterprises, thereby stimulating the vitality of the market economy and helping the achievement of economic growth goals.