What will happen to the economy in 2023?
And where is the Japanese economy headed?
We asked the top management of companies at the New Year celebrations of three economic organizations, including Keidanren.
Keidanren, the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Keizai Doyukai held a New Year's celebration at a hotel in Tokyo on the 5th, limiting the number of people to about 600 people, about one-third of the number before the spread of the new corona infection. attended.
Nissho Chairman Kobayashi ``Improvement of the environment so that wages can be raised''
Among them, Mr. Kobayashi, President of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, gave a speech on behalf of the organizers, saying, "This year, in addition to soaring energy and raw material prices, the environment surrounding corporate management is becoming more severe again, such as labor shortages. In addition, over the past 20 years or more, prices and wages have remained almost flat in Japan, and productivity growth has continued to stagnate.
In addition, he said, "In order to promote wage increases and realize a virtuous cycle with growth, it is essential to create an environment in which small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for 70% of employment, can sustainably raise wages. It is also necessary to support the improvement of productivity and promote the passing on of costs by optimizing transaction prices." emphasized.
Prime Minister Kishida repeatedly asks employers to raise wages
Prime Minister Kishida attended a New Year's party held in Tokyo by three economic organizations and said, "Right now, the Japanese economy is at a major crossroads. Prices in the economy as a whole will continue to rise like in Europe and the United States, and wage increases will have to catch up. While some experts warn that Japan will fall into stagflation, where prices rise and economic recession progress at the same time, we are faced with a once-in-a-decade opportunity to transform the structure of the Japanese economy, such as rebound demand from the corona crisis. There are also experts who say that
After that, "What is common to both views is that the future of the Japanese economy will be completely different depending on this year's wage increase movement. It is the companies here that will pull up the wage increase in Japan as a whole. ', and repeatedly asked the management to raise wages.
In addition, Prime Minister Kishida said that one of the major pillars of countermeasures against the declining birthrate would be the promotion of work style reforms and the enhancement of systems that support them. We must also consider this, and we would like to ask the industrial world to lend us their support.”
"This year's economy" asked by the top of the company
This time, we asked the top management of the participating companies to
predict what the economy will be like this year
.
And I was asked to list the keywords "What will you focus on this year?"
"AGC" President Hirai [economic forecast +2]
"It is necessary to promote 'reform'"
Yoshinori Hirai, president of major glass manufacturer AGC, showed a forecast [+2].
Q. What is the outlook for the Japanese economy and economy this year?
A. We expect the degree of recovery to become stronger in the second half.
The point is when the three factors, namely, the Russia-Ukraine problem and related raw material prices, inflation and high interest rates centered on the United States, and the turmoil accompanying the shift from China's zero-corona policy, will start to recover.
At the very least, we expect trends in the US and China to recover in the second half.
If these two superpowers can recover their economies, we believe that the Japanese economy will benefit as well.
Q. What do you want to focus on this year?
A. As economies around the world are suffering, it is necessary for the Japanese economy to see this as an opportunity for recovery and to promote "transformation."
Investing in growth, especially in people, is extremely important. Last year, we raised the wages of union members by an average of 6%. will also continue.
Q. What are your thoughts on this year's wage increase?
A. Wage increases are for growth investment, so how much growth is expected is also relevant.
Invest in your employees for the future.
And if the employees work hard and push up the company's performance, it will lead to the next wage increase.
Creating such a virtuous cycle of performance and wages is the most important duty of a manager.
"Mitsui & Co." President Hori [economic forecast +2]
"A 'realistic solution' while looking at both the present and the future"
Kenichi Hori, president of major trading company Mitsui & Co., also showed a forecast [+2].
Q. What is the outlook for the Japanese economy and economy this year?
A. I am a little cautious about rising prices, but there is still room to capture recovery demand from the new coronavirus, and Japan will emerge later than Europe and the United States, so I have high hopes for this year.
Q. What do you want to focus on this year?
A.It is necessary to promote business development and research investment for the future low-carbon society, so it is very important to be conscious of the time axis and provide a "realistic solution" while looking at both the present and the future. It's important to
Q. What are your thoughts on this year's wage increase?
A.Our basic idea is to grow as a company and raise the level of remuneration by returning the results to our employees.
We would like to combine this with increasing rewards for those who have deepened their expertise.
Q.As a company involved in the resource business, what is your view on the global supply and demand situation for LNG (liquefied natural gas) and other energy sources due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
A. I believe that there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the energy supply and demand relationship, so we need to take measures to keep aside this one year.
Anyway, the important thing is how to decentralize procurement and build a backup supply chain.
"Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group" President Kamezawa [economic forecast +2]
"Three of 'digital green culture'"
Hiroki Kamezawa, president of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, a major financial company, also showed a forecast [+2].
Q. What is the outlook for the Japanese economy and economy this year?
A. Basically, we will recover gradually.
Personal consumption is strong, especially in services, corporate performance is moderate, and capital investment is strong.
In addition, there are recovery of inbound and economic measures of the government, so I took this view.
Q. What do you want to focus on this year?
A. Three of "digital green culture".
I think digital has accelerated tremendously even with the corona disaster.
Values and customer needs are becoming more and more diverse, so we want to be able to provide a variety of services through digital technology.
On the green side, the issue of climate change is pretty much the subject of discussion.
Q. What are your thoughts on this year's wage increase?
A. Regarding wage increases, we will respond appropriately while listening to the demands of the labor union because of the high prices.
However, raising wages is not the only issue, and we would like to invest in human resources in a broader sense, including increasing the number of side jobs within the company and providing opportunities for employees to grow.
Q. How do you see the exchange rate this year after the rapid depreciation of the yen last year?
A. I think the exchange rate will still fluctuate, but since it fluctuated so much last year, I think it will move within a certain range.
Basically, stable movements are better than big fluctuations.
Q. What is the outlook for the stock price this year?
A. I myself am not so pessimistic.
Japan is expected to grow moderately, and the US economy may not collapse so badly either.
Speaking of risks, one risk is that US inflation will be prolonged and difficult to control.
"Suntory Holdings" President Niinami [economic forecast +1.5]
“More focus on ‘innovative product creation’”
Takeshi Niinami, president of beverage giant Suntory Holdings, showed a forecast [+1.5].
Q. What is the outlook for the Japanese economy and economy this year?
A. I think inflation will continue.
In the first half of the year, the situation will be extremely difficult due to price hikes in the supply chain and other areas, but I think things will gradually improve in the second half.
Q.Specifically?
A. There is already a trend toward private brands and cheap products.
Wages will rise gradually, especially in April, and people will want to buy good and interesting things little by little.
Q. What do you want to focus on this year?
A. We must focus more on creating innovative products.
Behavioral changes are occurring due to digitalization and other factors, so I would like to carefully read the psychology of customers and create interesting products that surprise customers.
Q. What are your thoughts on this year's wage increase?
A.I definitely want to raise it to a level above 6%.
Base-up is also thinking about a different level than ever.
Inflation is lowering the standard of living of employees.
I think that it is necessary for management to support it.
In order to bring about innovation, it must be a dynamic company.
Raising wages for that purpose is a very important “investment in people” as a manager.