This raw winter 2022-2023 is currently proving to be particularly mild and exceptionally warm in Europe.
Almost a chance when the energy conflict with Russia raised fears of energy shortages and power cuts a few weeks ago.
Distrust nevertheless, Europe is not off the hook.
End of March 2022. The European Union breathes a first breath of relief after a particularly mild and dry month.
Count 26 out of 31 days above season averages.
Consequence: no power cut is to be deplored on the Old Continent.
If the rise in energy prices began in the second half of 2021, the war between Russia and Ukraine has accentuated the energy crisis within the Twenty-Seven, on which most countries are dependent in the Russian gas.
Almost a year later, the scenario seems to be repeating itself as the conflict gets bogged down: the end of the year was marked by the second hottest Christmas ever recorded in France, and the absolute record for the New Year. And the month of January seems to be taking the same path: the national thermal indicator stands at 7.6 degrees above normal for the season.
The worst behind us?
Of course, this is not about celebrating global warming.
But you have to admit, in the circumstances, this overheated weather looks like good news for the EU.
“The big fear was having a cold winter.
For the moment, things are going pretty well and European gas reserves are still 84% full, which is normally the filling rate at the start of winter,” says Nicolas Goldberg, Senior Manager Energy at Colombus Consulting. .
By way of comparison, in January 2022, just before the start of the conflict, gas reserves were at 54%.
The specialist specifies: “Gas consumption is very heat-sensitive because it is mainly used to create heat.
Thus, the milder the temperatures, the more gas consumption drops drastically.
Europe has well-stocked reserves, heats less at the moment and its industrial consumption has decreased because many factories have had to temporarily close because of energy tariffs.
As a result, prices plummet.
On Monday, the benchmark price of natural gas in Europe was hovering around 73 euros for one megawatt hour (MWh), the lowest since February 21, 2022 and the start of the war.
In August, the MWh peaked at 342 euros.
In France, the wholesale price of electricity – correlated to that of gas – fell to 240 euros at the end of December, ie its lowest level since April.
It was four times more expensive at the end of August.
No impact for the consumer
“The scarcity of gas had been overestimated, so prices were higher than they should have been.
Of course, without this particularly warm winter, they would not have fallen so much, ”said Lamis Aljounaidi, energy economist and director of the consulting firm Paris Infrastructure Advisory.
This Indian summer, which does more than play extra time, could almost relegate the risk of energy shortages or power cuts for a while: "The nuclear power plants that have been shut down are gradually starting up again and France should quickly regain all of its its supply capacity", continues the specialist.
Not enough to jump to the ceiling, however, warns Patrice Geoffron, professor of economics and director of the Center for Geopolitics of Energy and Raw Materials (CGEMP): the benefits for household wallets will remain relatively limited.
“Households benefited from frozen prices between autumn 2021 and the end of 2022. Gas prices only increased by 15% on January 1, 2023 and electricity prices will see the same increase in February.
They should have grown by more than 100% without these tariff shields, informs the expert.
Even with sharply falling wholesale prices, the rate paid therefore remains significantly below what it should be without state protection”.
The situation is slightly different for companies, which are much less protected by public aid.
Other winters to hold
Above all, be careful not to declare victory too quickly: not only is winter not over but the conflict seems set to last a few more years.
“It will take a long time to do without Russian gas completely and to be energetically safe from a cut-off from Moscow.
Russia is still the main European source of gas”, continues Lamis Aljounaidi.
Gazprom delivered 62 billion cubic meters to Europe in 2022 compared to 138 billion in 2021, according to an estimate by Thierry Bros, an energy market analyst and teacher at Sciences Po.
“We are going to have to face two or three tense winters, perhaps without Russian gas at all, warns Patrice Geoffron.
Moreover, even if we manage to obtain gas supplies elsewhere, and if the threat of shortage is less acute, the cost of these supplies will be much higher than that coming from Russia”.
In short: if this mild winter seems to have given the advantage to Europe, nothing is still fixed.
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