Fuel benchmark: how prices for gasoline and diesel in Russia may change in 2023

In 2022, the increase in gasoline prices in Russia was more than 17 times lower than official inflation.

This is evidenced by the materials of Rosstat and the Ministry of Economic Development.

According to the authorities, over the past 12 months, a liter of AI-92 gasoline at gas stations in the country has risen in price by an average of 0.2% - from 47.11 to 47.21 rubles, and the retail price of AI-95 fuel has increased by 0.7% - from 51.01 to 51.35 rubles per liter.

At the same time, the inflation rate in Russia amounted to almost 12.2% in annual terms.

It should be noted that the rate of appreciation of diesel prices was also lower compared to the general increase in prices for goods and services in the country.

Over the year, the cost of this type of fuel increased by an average of 8.2% - from 53.94 to 58.37 rubles per liter.

Keeping prices for petroleum products below inflation remains one of the priorities of the Russian government, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the end of December.

According to him, in 2022 this task was exceeded, and in 2023 the authorities will continue to keep the situation under control.

“Together with the Federal Antimonopoly Service, we will closely monitor that price increases do not exceed inflation.

To do this, we have a damper - a unique tool that smooths out fluctuations in world prices, ”TASS quotes Novak as saying.

The so-called damping mechanism was launched back in 2019.

As part of the initiative, the state reimburses oil companies for lost revenues when supplying fuel to the domestic market.

If fuel prices in Russia are lower than export prices, producers receive compensation from the federal budget.

With a higher cost of raw materials within the country, business, on the contrary, deducts part of its profits to the treasury.

“Thus, the tool allows the state to regulate the cost of fuel in the domestic market through payments to mining companies.

It was thanks to the damping surcharge that gasoline prices practically did not grow in 2022, ”Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, explained in a conversation with RT.

In addition, according to the expert, last year, against the background of large-scale Western sanctions in the spring and early summer, Russian companies had some difficulties with the export of oil and oil products.

As a result, an oversupply of fuel formed in the domestic market, which put additional pressure on prices.

Thus, gasoline has become one of the few goods that have hardly risen in price in 2022, the head of the Russian Fuel Union Yevgeny Arkusha also admitted.

However, as the specialist noted, the reverse situation was observed with a diesel engine.

“It has always been difficult with winter diesel fuel, and the past year was no exception.

Previously, surrogates and a mixture of summer varieties with kerosene helped, which was in principle allowed by the authorities.

However, in 2022, mixing began to be subject to additional taxes, and the process became costly.

Moreover, for economic reasons, surrogates have disappeared - it is unprofitable to supply them to the domestic market, since the damper does not apply to them.

All these events led to an increase in diesel prices, ”the source explained to RT.

At the same time, Russia has stockpiled enough fuel for 2023 to contain retail prices.

This was previously stated by the head of the Ministry of Energy of the country Nikolai Shulginov.

“The Ministry of Energy (holds. -

) the situation is always under control.

Stocks are formed at refineries, PNPO for both diesel and gasoline.

For diesel - about 3 million tons, for gasoline - somewhere around 1.6 million. Therefore, I don’t think you need to worry, ”Shulginov said on the air of the Russia 24 channel.

• Car traffic on the Garden Ring in Moscow.

• © Maxim Blinov

Nevertheless, this year, for a number of reasons, the growth rate of fuel prices in Russia may be higher than in 2022.

Mark Goykhman, chief analyst at TeleTrade, shared this opinion in a conversation with RT.

As the specialist recalled, on December 5, the European Union imposed an embargo on sea supplies of Russian oil and banned its companies from transporting raw materials from Russia to third countries at a price above $60 per barrel.

From February 5, the same measures should apply to petroleum products.

“As a result of these restrictions, not only exports, but also the very production of these products in Russia may be reduced, which the government has already warned about.

That is, the supply of fuel on the domestic market may also decrease,” said Goykhman.

Moreover, since January 1, the tax on the extraction of minerals in the oil industry has been increased in Russia.

Now companies are forced to deduct more significant amounts to the budget and may slightly raise the price tags at their gas stations, the expert did not rule out.

However, according to Igor Yushkov, the growth in the cost of fuel will continue to remain within the framework of inflation.

According to the forecast of the Central Bank, in 2023 consumer prices for goods and services in Russia will increase by an average of 5-7%.

In this case, in the next 12 months, gasoline AI-92 may rise in price to 49.57-50.51 rubles per liter, fuel AI-95 - up to 53.92-54.94 rubles per liter, and diesel fuel - up to 61.29 -62.46 rubles per liter.