On January 1, the 13-year national subsidy for new energy vehicles came to an end.
In the future, the new energy vehicles that have been accelerating for many years will leave the support and subsidies of the state and grow from a toddler to a new star in the industry. The core competitiveness of my country's new energy vehicles has been formed.
With the advent of the "post-subsidy era", issues such as how companies and the market will respond and how to develop to win the Red Sea race have become the focus of attention.
1 What is the effect of policy pull?
Looking back on the past few years, my country's subsidies for new energy vehicles can be described as "supporting the horse" and "leading the door".
Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, told reporters that my country has implemented subsidies for new energy vehicles for many years, which has played an irreplaceable role in the cultivation and start-up of the new energy vehicle market.
Bo Wenxi said that when the production and sales of new energy vehicles are relatively small at the initial stage and the cost of a single vehicle is high, the direct subsidies from the state finance will help reduce the actual purchase cost of car buyers and increase market acceptance, thereby opening up the new energy vehicle market It is indispensable.
Qi Haishen, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters that from a global perspective, no country can subsidize the new energy vehicle industry for so many years like my country, and the sustainability of the policy, funding The subsidies are in place and have had a positive impact. On the one hand, it has promoted the reduction of the cost of new energy vehicles, and on the other hand, it has promoted technological progress and the transformation of national consumption habits.
"These active financial subsidies have promoted the iterative upgrading of the technology of new energy vehicles, and also promoted the improvement of my country's manufacturing capacity. These effects are very far-reaching."
2 Why should the “National Subsidy” be cancelled?
As for the reasons for the cancellation of subsidies for new energy vehicles, Bo Wenxi believes that new energy vehicles have already achieved a large market share, and the market is growing rapidly, and the cost and cost performance of a single vehicle have also gained due market competitiveness. , and has entered a period of market explosion, especially in the field of new energy vehicles in my country, which has achieved corner overtaking, becoming the highland of the world's auto industry and occupying the first position in production and sales. Next year, the market trend of new energy vehicles can be expected.
The decline of new energy subsidies is gradually declining with the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles and the improvement of market competitiveness. For the industry, it is conducive to the emergence of innovative car companies and large-scale car companies, which will have a profound impact on Changes in the market structure of new energy vehicles.
Yan Jinghui, a member of the expert committee of China Automobile Dealers Association, believes that the new energy vehicle market will gradually change from policy-driven to policy-driven and market-driven, and then completely withdraw from subsidies and become a purely market-driven market. In fact, this process When the national subsidy policy was promulgated, it had already been clearly stated.
He said that in recent years, the changes and decline of new energy vehicle subsidies did not happen overnight, but were adjusted with the advancement of technology and the improvement of cruising range.
3 Is the timing right to leave?
In Bai Wenxi's view, my country's new energy vehicles are now highly competitive in terms of cost performance, product advancement, and supply chain collaboration capabilities. "From this perspective, it will be a matter of time before the state subsidy withdraws, because now The automobile industry is moving towards real market-oriented competition, and the overall industry-scale manufacturing has matured and has the ability to compete freely."
He said that the current penetration rate of new energy vehicles in my country has reached 25%. The new energy vehicle industry is increasingly squeezing the traditional fuel vehicle industry. In addition, new energy vehicles cater to the transition from fossil energy to new energy. The trend is also in line with the development trend of global low-carbon emission reduction and climate warming.
In addition, new energy vehicles have already carried the mission of integrating intelligence and technology.
In this context, global car companies are accelerating the expansion of new energy vehicles.
"If it is said that the country's subsidy policy for so many years has 'sent the horse' and 'led in' new energy vehicles, then it is time to let go," Qi Haishen said. The dual-intensive characteristics of high-end and technology-intensive, combined with my country's strong capital support, technology research and development iterations, and my country's great competitive advantages, will usher in a real automotive revolution in the future.
4 What is the impact on car companies?
Regarding the impact of the subsidy decline, Yan Jinghui told the Shell Finance reporter that the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies will not have a particularly large impact on car companies.
The subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles has been implemented for 13 years. In recent years, the subsidies for new energy vehicles have shown a gradual decline. The national policy is very transparent.
The new energy vehicle subsidy policy has a great effect on the improvement of the core components of new energy vehicles, especially the mileage of the battery; at the same time, it also promotes the improvement of the mileage and quality of new energy vehicles.
Yan Jinghui believes that the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies is a gradual process. From the formulation of new energy vehicle development strategies of car companies, it can be found that they have included in their plans how to make up for the losses after the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies. Car companies have already made adequate preparations.
In addition, in 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles has already retreated to the final stage. In April 2020, four ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", which proposed a gradual decline in intensity and pace, and will The implementation period of the subsidy policy has been extended to the end of 2022. In principle, the subsidy standards from 2020 to 2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20%, and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year; therefore, it will not have a particularly substantive impact on car companies .
Talking about the impact on auto companies after the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies, Mei Songlin, a senior analyst in the auto industry, believes that auto companies are generally in a dilemma, and costs have risen sharply (the cancellation of state subsidies has brought about an increase in costs of more than 10,000 yuan), and the rise Prices can quickly relieve operating pressure, but price increases may lose the market to competing products and lose the market to traditional fuel vehicles.
In the end, two types of car companies will choose to raise prices. One is strong brands, consumers are relatively less sensitive to price changes of strong brands; the other is car companies with strong financial reserves can take the opportunity to expand their market share.
With the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and new energy vehicles are also facing new challenges. Mei Songlin said that the main reason is to compete more fairly with traditional fuel vehicles. The competitiveness of energy vehicle products itself; this will force the new energy vehicle industry to focus on overcoming the final short board, such as power battery cost/safety, convenient charging and charging speed, and the practical value of intelligent driving and intelligent networking.
He believes that the new energy vehicle industry has been running forward, and those who can keep up with this rhythm will survive. There are only a few car companies that can continue to keep up with this rhythm, and most of them will be eliminated at different stages, and 2023 is no exception.
5 What challenges does the industry chain face?
With the complete withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies, the industry believes that the industry chain will face new challenges.
Yan Jinghui said that from the supply side, the raw materials and chips of new energy vehicles are affected by the supply, and the supply capacity of the supply chain still needs to be improved; secondly, from the perspective of cost, the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies may be more or less intensified. The cost burden of car companies makes it necessary for companies to further study how to reduce costs and increase efficiency; from the perspective of the end market, the price fluctuation space may be relatively small, which may have a certain impact on stimulating market consumer price space.
In addition, Yan Jinghui said that the profits of car companies in new energy vehicles may be reduced, but due to the large amount of capital investment required in research and development and software, it may increase the pressure on companies to a certain extent.
In Bai Wenxi's view, after getting rid of subsidies, new energy vehicles will rely more on their own market competitiveness, relying on cost-effectiveness, marketing capabilities, and consumer evaluation to speak, and will embark on a healthier and sustainable development path.
However, Bo Wenxi also reminded that for the new energy vehicle industry chain, in addition to strengthening technological innovation to improve its cost performance and endowing itself with outstanding market highlights to win the market, efforts must also be made to increase the scale of production and sales to reduce the cost of a single vehicle. The cost of the car, thereby reducing the comprehensive consumption cost of new energy vehicles and improving the experience of users, in order to cope with the arrival of the "post-subsidy" era of new energy vehicles.
6 Will it affect the auto market sales?
Judging from the consumption situation of the entire automobile market, Yan Jinghui believes that it is also necessary to look at the situation on the consumption side and the supply side.
On the consumption side, attention should be paid to the recovery of the economy and consumer demand; on the supply side, capital investment will improve the quality of new energy vehicle products and improve the level of intelligence, which will become the competitiveness of consumers' desire to buy cars.
Generally speaking, Yan Jinghui does not think that the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies will have a greater impact on the new energy vehicle market, and the market will not be cold because of the withdrawal of subsidies. It is expected that the new energy vehicle market will continue its growth trend in 2022 this year.
Regarding the price increase, Yan Jinghui said that the price increase of new energy vehicles is not a trend. Different models and brands with different structural levels have different competitive situations in the market. Car companies can use this competitive relationship for marketing; New energy vehicles have not yet reached the level of using price increases to arouse consumers' attention to brands and enthusiasm for consumption.
In the domestic new energy vehicle market, the improvement of the level of intelligence is also the main factor to attract consumers. Digital car life is also an important issue in the current competition among car companies.
After more than ten years of development, the domestic market has explored the laws of all links from manufacturing to sales, and at the same time has seen the development trend of new energy vehicles forward-looking, which also lays the foundation for the sustainable development of car companies in the new energy vehicle market. concept, technology and market foundation.
Beijing News Shell Finance reporter Lin Zi Wang Linlin