Author: Sun Mengfan
Time is changing, and when the old and new years are changing, real estate tycoons have spoken out one after another to look forward to the future.
In recent days, Country Garden, China Evergrande, China Resources Land, China Jinmao, China Overseas Group, Greenland Group, Seazen Holdings and many other real estate companies at the helm have summed up their work in 2022 and the industry in 2023 through their New Year speeches. and enterprise development prospects.
"For the real estate industry, the test will come in 2022. The scale of the industry has shrunk, development investment has experienced negative growth for the first time in 20 years, and real estate companies are in constant danger... This is an 'unprecedented, industry-wide reshuffle' Era."
"Comprehensively summarize and reflect on the experience and lessons learned in the past 30 years, especially in response to this industry crisis... actively explore new real estate development models, and focus on the development of people's livelihood real estate that focuses on improved housing."
"Currently relevant benefits are being introduced one after another, but it will take time for the market to fully recover. 2023 will still be a year of hardships, opportunities and difficulties. Only by working together... can we accumulate the potential for sustainable development , embrace a more promising future.”
A group of real estate tycoons did not shy away from the challenges of the past year, but there is still hope for the future.
At the Central Economic Work Conference held in December, the statement that "real estate is still a pillar industry of the national economy" was mentioned. With the introduction of favorable policies for real estate, the real estate industry will still be an important endogenous driving force for national economic growth. Not speculating and protecting people's livelihood are still the main tone of industry development.
A Year of Unprecedented Reshuffle
In 2022, the real estate industry will experience an unprecedented shrinking cycle.
According to data from the Middle Finger Research Institute, in 2022, the annual cumulative price of new and second-hand housing in my country will fall. The price of new housing will fall for the first time after 7 years. Second-hand housing will fall for 8 consecutive months, and new housing will fall for 6 consecutive months. fall.
Commercial housing sales were also particularly dismal.
Last year, the sales area of the key 100 cities fell by nearly 40% year-on-year, and the absolute scale fell to the lowest level since 2015 in the same period.
In December, the transaction area of the key 100 cities rebounded slightly, with a month-on-month increase of 6.0%, but the year-on-year decline expanded to over 30%, and the decline has expanded. The policy overlay has not yet reversed the sluggish demand side.
At the same time, despite the introduction of multiple favorable financing policies, the chill in real estate financing has not subsided.
According to the monitoring of the China Finger Research Institute, from January to November 2022, the total non-bank financing of real estate companies was 779.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.7%.
Among the top 100 real estate companies, about 40 defaulted on their debts.
Looking back on this year, the leaders of many real estate companies are full of emotion.
Li Hua, chairman of the board of directors of Excellence Group, said in his New Year speech released on January 1 that the past 2022 was an extremely difficult year for China's real estate industry. Many peers encountered unprecedented challenges and searched hard in the dark.
At the same time, 2022 is also a critical year for the industry to accelerate the search for a way out and rebuild confidence.
Zhu Jing, chairman of Shangkun Group, said in his New Year speech that for the real estate industry, the test will come in 2022.
The scale of the industry has shrunk, the first negative growth in development investment in 20 years, and real estate companies have been in danger... This is an era of "unprecedented, inside and outside the industry, and a global reshuffle". A new era of opening a new game.
Li Xin, chairman of the board of directors of China Resources Land, mentioned in his New Year's speech that in 2022, the real estate industry will shift from "speed and scale first" to "stability and quality first", with a turning point in the trend, market shrinkage, and reshaping of the pattern.
He Jianbo, chairman of Minmetals Real Estate, said that due to the continuous impact of the epidemic, the continuous economic decline, the deep adjustment of the industry, and the lack of market confidence, real estate companies are facing unprecedented difficulties and challenges.
Actively guaranteeing the delivery of buildings and developing financing channels have become the focus of most real estate companies' work last year.
Mo Bin, President of Country Garden Group, said in his New Year speech that in 2022, Country Garden has delivered a total of nearly 700,000 suites, of which the delivery in the first three quarters accounted for about 20% of the national delivery volume in the same period, which is equivalent to 1 out of every 5 suites delivered nationwide. .
At the same time, the group's financing channels remain unimpeded, and it has received more than 300 billion yuan of intentional comprehensive credit support.
Xu Jiayin, chairman of the board of directors of Evergrande Group, stated in a recent company internal letter that in 2022, 732 guaranteed delivery projects of Evergrande Real Estate will be fully resumed, and a total of 301,000 units will be handed over throughout the year.
"2023 is a critical year for Evergrande to fulfill its corporate responsibility and do everything possible to guarantee the delivery of the building. As long as all Evergrande people work together...the task of guaranteeing the delivery of the building will be completed, various debts will be repaid, and risks will be resolved."
Li Xin said that in 2022, China Resources Land successfully issued a 10-year Shijiazhuang Vientiane City asset-backed special plan, and China Resources Fund China Resources Nest Rental Housing Closed Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund was officially listed, becoming the first guaranteed lease operated by a market-oriented institution Housing public offering REIT; build a green financial framework, and obtain ESG loans of nearly 20 billion Hong Kong dollars throughout the year.
It will take time for the market to fully recover
The difficult situation facing real estate companies today comes from financing on the one hand and sales on the other.
In order to expand the external financing channels of real estate enterprises, the supervision has introduced policies in all aspects.
According to the China Finger Research Institute, it can be seen from the recent policy mix that the objects of funding have formed a progressive relationship from the three levels of "project-real estate enterprises-industry". Vigorously solve two fundamental problems in the industry: unreasonable asset-liability ratio and risk asset restructuring.
Credit funds are the most important financing component of real estate companies, and it is also the type of financing with the largest scale and the most subjects involved in this round.
Since the release and implementation of the "16 Articles of Financial Support", according to incomplete statistics, more than 120 real estate companies have recently obtained bank credit, and more than 60 banking institutions have implemented the spirit of the policy and actively extended credit to real estate companies, with a total amount of more than 4.8 trillion yuan.
In terms of bond issuance and financing, with the repeated optimization of the credit enhancement policy, private enterprises have rapidly implemented bond issuance and financing. At present, more and more real estate companies have submitted issuance plans, and the credit enhancement method has also been extended from the exclusive support of China Debt Increase to the "central government". local cooperation" to help more private enterprises join the ranks of bond issuance and financing.
After the equity financing signal was issued, more than 30 real estate companies have announced plans for allotment or private placement.
On the sales demand side, restrictive policies on house purchases in multiple places are gradually being lifted.
After Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an and other cities optimized their housing purchase policies in November, and Xiamen, Nanjing, Wuhan, Hefei and other second-tier cities joined the ranks of relaxing demand-side policies in early December, Foshan and Dongguan also fully relaxed purchase restrictions.
On January 3, Henan officials bluntly stated that they would cancel or adjust the restrictive policies that restrict the release of housing demand.
For this series of policies to warm the wind, the leaders of real estate companies have no lack of hope, but they also have challenges.
"Currently relevant benefits are being introduced one after another, but it will take time for the market to fully recover. 2023 will still be a year of hardships, opportunities and difficulties. Only by working together, carrying forward the enterprising spirit, forging an efficient and dynamic organizational team, optimizing Only by improving our operating capabilities and improving our awareness of financial security can we accumulate potential for sustainable development and embrace a more promising future," said Li Hua.
Li Hua pointed out that in 2023, Excellence Group will focus on four major aspects, further deepen its home market in the Greater Bay Area, and consolidate its market position in residential development, urban renewal, commercial operations, commercial office operations, hotel operations, and commercial and enterprise property management; at the same time More focused and strategic deployment in the Yangtze River Delta, focusing on urban renewal business, and firmly fulfilling social responsibilities to enhance the vitality of the team.
Zhu Jing said that in the new year, housing should not be speculated and people's livelihood should be guaranteed. The main tone of the industry's development is still the real estate industry, which is still the biggest endogenous driving force for China's economic growth.
At the same time, the development of the industry will continue to face various difficulties and hurdles in the short term: the overall economy is relatively fragile, and it will take some time for confidence to recover; the liquidity problem of real estate companies needs to be alleviated by more precise policy measures; The mentality of buying up or not will continue to wait and see; the credit system reconstruction of the supply chain of the real estate industry will take longer.
Under the above-mentioned industry environment, Shangkun will accelerate business restructuring and transformation and upgrading, increase the exploration of the new track of "co-construction and management", and form a two-wheel-driven development model of "real estate development + co-construction and management", which has been gradually implemented. The relatively mature government agency construction, capital agency construction and commercial agency construction projects have promoted the transformation of enterprises from "big development" to "big service".
Shan Weibiao, chairman of Road King Group, said that the industry is still facing a difficult situation in the short term. In 2022, the sales of commercial housing in the country will bid farewell to the continuous growth of the past seven years. Get ready to deal with the new problems that come with "negative growth in scale".
Within one or two years when the US dollar debt has almost "braked" private real estate companies, flexible measures will be adopted to appropriately adjust the development speed and respond in a timely manner depending on future market changes.
Mo Bin pointed out that Country Garden will comprehensively summarize and reflect on the experience and lessons learned in the past 30 years, especially in response to this industry crisis, adhere to customer-centered and market-oriented, strengthen organization and talent construction, and explore new real estate development models. Efforts will be made to develop real estate for people's livelihood that focuses on improved housing.
At the same time, comprehensively improve the quality of products and services, fully participate in the entrusted construction of indemnificatory housing, etc., and contribute to the acceleration of the establishment of a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and simultaneous rental and purchase.
Li Xin said that China Resources Land will promote the development of emerging businesses such as agent construction and operation, long-term leasing, and industrial real estate, and explore the business model of urban operation management; win the battle of "destocking" and actively, prudently, and efficiently promote mergers and acquisitions; Create a platform for intensive sharing of functions, strengthen the organizational capacity building of the entire value chain of urban companies, respond to market uncertainties with the certainty of organizational capacity, and resolutely complete the annual performance target.