Author: Li Jun

　　After rebounding for more than two months, the Hang Seng Index has risen by more than 6,000 points. As the comprehensive "customs clearance" with the mainland is gradually approaching, it once returned to the 20,000-point mark at noon on January 4 and rose to 20,631 points again.

　　Although the rebound has been relatively large, the single-day turnover of Hong Kong stocks has been hovering around 100 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is far from the 222.1 billion Hong Kong dollars on November 30, 2022. How much stamina does Hong Kong stocks have to rise?

　　Investors are optimistic about the long-term trend of Hong Kong stocks.

Most people in the industry believe that the 20-month bear market in Hong Kong stocks has ended at the end of October 2022, but after the 6,000-point rebound, there are also differences in the market.

Some market participants believe that Hong Kong stocks may be subject to the Fed's interest rate hike in the short term, as well as substantive data on the economic recovery in the Mainland.

　　Hu Yu, chief economist of Xinding Fund, analyzed to the first financial reporter that Hong Kong stocks still have room to rise. The core reason is that the overall valuation is low, the impact of the epidemic is weakening, the pessimistic expectations of foreign capital are gradually repairing, and the strengthening of the renminbi is driven by multiple factors.

　　Wang Xueheng, an analyst at Guosen Securities, believes that Hong Kong stocks are expected to remain strong in the first quarter. Although they have experienced two months of sharp rise, even if there is a correction, the range is limited. The reasons are: the infrastructure cycle has turned to expand; the return on net assets of Internet companies has improved significantly month-on-month ; Policies including epidemic prevention and control, Internet, real estate, education and other policies are more beneficial to the market.

Wang Xueheng believes that overseas markets are still under pressure in the first half of 2023, and U.S. stocks will continue to hit new lows in 2023, sooner or later, depending on when the bottom signal of U.S. debt and wages occurs, and some defensive companies will fall last It will be the most direct feature of the bottom of US stocks.

As a reference for the bottom of the U.S. stock market in 2023, the low point of the S&P index is at 3400 points, because the last drop in U.S. stocks may lower the risk appetite of the global stock market in the short term. The impact of this trend on the trend of Hong Kong stocks may be "N" type .

　　Ping An Securities (Hong Kong) believes that after the epidemic situation in various places gradually peaks and slows down, the domestic consumption and investment boom is expected to continue to recover. The economic recovery in the first quarter of 2023 will be a high probability event. At the same time, it is expected to release more in early March to boost the economy. policies and measures.

　　Some private investors who are not optimistic about the short-term performance of Hong Kong stocks told Yicai.com reporters that although Hong Kong stocks basically confirmed the end of the nearly 20-month bear market at the end of October, the market has entered the "substantial period" from the "expected period" after a sharp rebound. Actual economic data or corporate performance support can lead the market further higher.

Entering the first quarter of 2023, it may pull back to 18,000 points or below. On the one hand, after a sharp rebound of 6,000 points, it will become "overbought". It is also due to the current high market expectations for the market outlook, but the turnover has not fully matched the rise. Similar situations It happened in March 2009, and the first wave of adjustments in the early stage of the bull market has a lot of lethality.

Investors can pay attention to the direction of the Fed’s interest rate hike and the impact on the mainland’s economy after recovery. Judging from the events in the first quarter, including overseas central banks’ guidance on future interest rate hikes, and whether the mainland’s economic recovery will exceed expectations, there are uncertainties.