From January to November 2022, prices for apartments in Russian new buildings increased by an average of 23% compared to the same period in 2021.

Meanwhile, the cost per square meter in the secondary market increased by about 21% in annual terms.

Such RT data was presented at the National Credit Ratings rating agency.

In general, the past year was uneven in terms of pricing in the real estate market, Konstantin Aprelev, vice president of the Russian Guild of Realtors, told RT.

According to him, until May, housing was rapidly rising in price against the backdrop of rising mortgage rates.

Thus, consumers feared that loans would become even less affordable, and therefore actively bought apartments at rates previously agreed with banks, which pushed prices up.

“After that, there was a reverse trend.

From the second half of May, the secondary housing began to gradually become cheaper, and from July prices for new buildings also crept down.

The key reason is the cyclical nature of the market.

During the pandemic, there were very low mortgage rates, which spurred demand and significantly accelerated prices.

Now the rates are higher, and therefore interest in real estate has begun to fade, and the cost of housing is now declining, ”said Aprelev.

From February to mid-December 2022, the volume of supply in the primary real estate market increased by more than 66%, and in the finished housing segment by almost 22%, RT was told in the Avito Real Estate service.

At the same time, according to analysts, the demand for apartments in new buildings fell by 36%, and for finished housing - by 18%.

“It became clear to many developers that now this is a buyer's market.

Therefore, developers are now forced to offer good discounts, reduce prices and cling to every opportunity to sell their objects, ”Alexey Fedorov, an analyst at TeleTrade, explained in a conversation with RT.

According to Konstantin Aprelev, the volume of supply on the market remains high, so in 2023, developers will continue to hold various promotions in an attempt to stimulate demand.

So, during the year, prices for new buildings can decrease by an average of 1% per month, the expert did not rule out.

Moreover, similar dynamics can be observed in the secondary market, he noted.

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Keeping housing loan rates at a relatively high level will also cool the real estate market in 2023, Aleksey Fedorov is sure.

According to him, in 2022, the share of mortgage transactions increased from about 65-67% to 77-83%.

As a result, as the analyst emphasized, at the moment it is important to avoid market overheating.

“In a good way, prices should be allowed to decline by 25-30% from the peaks of spring 2022.

Then the state will not have to drag the construction sector on its own, making it less efficient and profitable.

With a reduction in the cost of housing by a third, demand will naturally begin to grow already in 2024, which will return the share of mortgages to a more healthy level of 50-55%, ”Fyodorov explained.

However, experts do not yet expect such a sharp decline in housing prices in the foreseeable future.

According to the NKR, in the first half of 2023, the cost per square meter in the secondary market may decrease by 10-15%, after which it will stabilize at the achieved level.

In turn, apartments in new buildings may fall in price by about 5-15% over the next 12 months, said Valery Yemelyanov, an expert at BCS World of Investments.

“The authorities are trying to support the construction industry through subsidized mortgages, as well as indirectly through the project financing mechanism.

Because of this, we have artificial support for prices, so they do not fall as quickly.

In this sense, the secondary market is much freer.

There, real buyers and sellers freely bargain at a price, ”Emelyanov explained in an interview with RT.

A similar point of view is shared by the commercial director of Avito Nedvizhimost Nikolay Popov.

Moreover, as the specialist emphasized, too much price reduction in the primary market can be risky for developers.

“If discounts for apartments in new buildings are very large, developers may have difficulties with banks that finance construction.

At the same time, in the secondary market, more and more sellers agree to bargain and discount.

In this segment, the discount is 5-10%.

Including because of this, in large cities the average cost of secondary real estate is less than apartments in new buildings, ”explained the interlocutor of RT.