<Anchor> It
is a friendly economy time.
Today (3rd), I will be with reporter Kwon Ae-ri.
Last year, the trade balance turned to deficit for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
I think an article like this came out a while ago, but then the government said this.
Exports will also decrease by 4.5% next year.
I made this prediction.
That's why our export environment is not good this year, but among them, the semiconductor economy is very bad?
<Reporter>
Yes.
Oh why this year is so tight these days, I think there will actually be more days to feel than last year.
Korea's No. 1 export is semiconductors, and it is no exaggeration to say that 'Korea is a semiconductor'.
We are now the world's 6th largest trading country, and semiconductors account for over 19% of such a large export volume.
Even if you combine the second and third largest exports of petroleum products and automobile exports, their share is smaller than that of semiconductors.
And in fact, the semiconductor-related portion of imports is very large.
Since it accounts for an absolute portion of our trade, if the semiconductor economy is not good, it will eventually become burdensome and difficult throughout the year.
However, the outlook for the semiconductor industry this year is not so good.
As in Gyeonggi-do, structurally, difficult tests lie in front of our semiconductor industry.
This is the situation our semiconductors are facing now that 2023 begins.
<anchor>
So today I have to look at two main points.
How does the game affect it, and what other structural problems are there?
First, let's talk about the game.
The game is expected to be very bad.
It will affect you, I guess.
<Reporter>
Yes.
Semiconductors are heavily influenced by the economy.
The semiconductor with which we have strength is an item called 'memory semiconductor', and this is particularly competitive.
It is an essential part of a computer or smartphone.
But these machines are usually replaced when the pocketbook is good.
I eat ramen even when I don't have money, but when I'm struggling with something like a smartphone, I spend more if I can.
So, if people around the world tighten their belts this year, the semiconductor industry, which determines our exports, cannot be bright.
Semiconductor inventories have already piled up, and prices have fallen.
It's a situation where even if you sell the same, there will be less left.
Last year, our semiconductor exports recorded the highest performance ever for the year, but the atmosphere suddenly deteriorated in the second half of the year.
As winter came, exports decreased by almost 30% compared to 2020.
It is expected that this atmosphere will continue for some time.
There is one event that the semiconductor industry is looking forward to this year.
In the online world, servers that send and receive data are essential.
I can watch YouTube right now because servers are still running furiously in huge data centers around the world.
Intel, which is famous for PCs in us, accounts for 90% of the CPU production of core devices that go into servers around the world.
A lot of our semiconductors go into this.
However, Intel originally decided to issue a new CPU last year, but it was postponed to this month.
Even if it comes out this month, full-scale production should be in the second half of the year.
Even if data centers are trying to switch to new products, they will have to wait until the second half of the year.
However, if the recession continues, even if new products come out, there will be many places that cannot be changed than expected.
<Anchor>
After listening to the explanation, I suddenly hope that Intel will release a new CPU sooner rather than later.
I think so.
I heard a good explanation about the game.
Now, structurally, there is talk that the semiconductor market will have some difficulties, but I'm not sure.
What kind of story is this?
<Reporter>
Yes.
In the long run, this is actually a bigger problem, and this will be an issue that I will keep talking about in the future.
Semiconductors are becoming more and more important as time goes on.
Now, the world's two most powerful countries, the United States and China, will ultimately have to become self-sufficient each other someday.
But for now, I'm at the stage where I'm saying I can't be with him.
We want to build a supply chain that does not interfere with each other.
In particular, these days, the idea that the United States should exclude China is getting stronger, and it is presenting unconventional conditions to bring our semiconductor factories, which have strengths in manufacturing, to American soil.
However, our semiconductors, related equipment, and materials are all sold the most in China.
There are also many factories in China.
So, it is a structure that can take a huge hit if there is a problem with China while being caught in a supply chain that excludes China.
In addition, as our semiconductor factories go abroad, whether in the United States or China, the many jobs that semiconductors create do not decrease or create new ones.
So, how should the core high-tech industry that earns our food be established in the long run? 2023 could be the year when that concern begins to emerge as a problem that needs to be decided sooner than expected.
[Do Won-bin/Trade Association International Trade Research Institute: It is a situation between the United States and China.
In terms of semiconductor exports, China accounts for the largest share, and since the United States has strengths in design, semiconductor source technology, and design, it is difficult to decide which country to side between the two countries.]