Ten experts talk about China's economy in 2023: how will the stock market, foreign exchange market, and property market go?

(Economic Observer) Ten experts talk about China's economy in 2023: How will the stock market, foreign exchange market, and property market go?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, December 31 (Reporter Xia Bin) In 2022, the world economy will sound the recession alarm, and the Chinese economy will also be hit by the epidemic.

Under the central decision-making deployment, how will China's economy return to stability in 2023?

What will happen to the stock market, foreign exchange market, and property market?

As the end of the year approaches, China News Agency interviewed ten experts and scholars to look forward to the trend of China's economy next year.

　　Su Jian, director of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University, said that in 2023, with the gradual adjustment of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, market expectations will gradually improve, and the endogenous growth momentum of the economy will increase. policy support.

Therefore, China's macroeconomic regulation and control in 2023 needs to focus on expansionary demand management and expansionary supply management, supplemented by a policy mix of expansionary market environment management policies.

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that after entering 2023, the epidemic prevention and control will be further optimized, and the central government will focus on "promoting the overall improvement of economic operation" and "boosting market confidence". Significantly improved.

　　Bai Jingming, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, mentioned that the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy in 2023 must adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability.

"Stability" means to choose the starting point and determine corresponding policy measures on the basis of controllable risks and costs, and "advance" means to increase efforts to improve efficiency.

The deep-seated meaning of increasing efforts and improving efficiency is to pay more attention to the organic combination and mutual promotion of precise efforts and deepening reforms.

　　Regarding efforts to expand domestic demand, the government has made it clear that the recovery and expansion of consumption should be given priority.

Zhang Jixing, deputy director of the Market Research Department of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, believes that China's consumer market in 2023 can be said to be optimistic and unfavorable, but the development potential is worth looking forward to.

With the continuous optimization of domestic epidemic prevention policies, the continuous refinement and implementation of consumption promotion policies, and the expansion of middle-income groups, it can be expected that China's consumption will continue to recover in 2023. The potential and space for consumption recovery is huge, and the consumption upgrade trend will not change. .

　　The global economy is slowing down, how should China's foreign trade relieve the pressure?

Zhang Jianping, director of the Regional Economic Cooperation Research Center of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that in 2023, China's foreign trade stabilization policy combination boxing still needs to continue to exert its strength, implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, make good use of the free trade pilot zone platform, and implement the RCEP rules. Quality construction of the "Belt and Road" will continue to make due contributions to stabilizing growth, employment and prices.

　　In the face of intensified international geopolitical conflicts, how can the Chinese secure their jobs?

Jiang Wenlai, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Agricultural Regional Planning of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, pointed out that in 2023, the Chinese people's rice bowl will be more secure and the foundation will be more stable. China's grain output is not less than 1.37 trillion catties, and the total grain output will remain above 1.3 trillion catties for nine consecutive years.

　　Can A-shares become red next year?

Hu Guopeng, deputy director of the Guohai Securities Research Institute and chief analyst of the strategy group, believes that the stock market in 2023 will be optimistic. The continuous contraction process of the A-share market valuation is coming to an end, and the stock market valuation will be improved next year.

The stock market in 2023 is expected to be a structural bull market.

　　Will the "bilateral fluctuation" of the RMB trend continue?

Tan Yaling, president of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, predicts that the central line of the RMB will be around 7 in 2023, which is a reflection of the basic neutral level in 2023.

The trend of the RMB will still be "bilateral fluctuations", with a high probability of partial depreciation, and the range of depreciation will be relatively large.

However, China's policy management and policy regulation are becoming more and more mature, and the policy tone of "self-centered" is relatively clear. Therefore, the impact of foreign capital will be very limited.

　　Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, believes that from the macroeconomic fundamentals of China and the United States, the trend of monetary policy, the trend of the US dollar index and the cycle of the RMB exchange rate itself, the pressure of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in 2023 is greater than the pressure of depreciation.

　　What is the prospect of the property market, which has ushered in a number of policy support in the near future?

Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Business Department of the China Index Research Institute, predicts that in 2023, under the keynote of "housing and housing, not speculation", there will be room for further optimization of policies at both ends of the supply and demand, and the policy is expected to be further strengthened to support the reasonable financing needs of enterprises, especially the head office. The financial support of some high-quality real estate companies will continue to be strengthened, while "guaranteed housing delivery" is still the focus, and special loans and supporting funds will be accelerated, which is expected to make more substantial progress and jointly promote the improvement of home buyers' expectations.

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