Reporter Wang Lixin
In 2022, the real estate industry will be extremely difficult.
The industry predicts that after the national new commercial housing transaction scale has reached more than 1.7 billion square meters for five consecutive years, it may drop to about 1.4 billion square meters in 2022, and sales are expected to decline to about 14 trillion yuan.
This year, Zhengzhou launched the first shot to rescue the second-tier cities, 39 cities including Hangzhou relaxed purchase restrictions, and 111 cities including Jinan relaxed loan restrictions... New policies for the property market followed one after another; in November, policies such as "16 Financial Measures" and refinancing restarts were introduced , to help the real estate industry usher in the dawn.
As a pillar industry of the economy, the resilience of the real estate industry is still there.
"When the market itself is under relatively high pressure, we need to build confidence." At Vanke's recent extraordinary shareholders meeting, Yu Liang, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vanke, said that the strength and breadth of the policy-oriented policies have exceeded expectations, and they have injected great value into the future development of the industry. Vitality, the twilight is gradually turning into dawn.
More than 1,000 new policies in more than 300 cities
Stabilize sales and boost confidence
Under the positioning of "housing to live in, not speculation", throughout 2022, the space for "policing according to the city" will gradually open up in various places. The core is to stabilize market expectations and achieve a soft landing of the industry, rather than blindly stimulating the irrational recovery of the market.
Since Zhengzhou fired the "first shot" to rescue the second-tier cities, relevant policies have been introduced in various places.
Looking back on 2022, according to CRIC statistics, 39 cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, and Ningbo and Foshan have completely canceled purchase restrictions; more than 80 cities have lowered the minimum down payment ratio for first homes to 20%; Demand enters the market; 7 cities relax price limits, and Xi'an clearly cancels the release mechanism for second-hand housing guide prices; 170 cities stimulate the market with fiscal and tax incentives, including reducing or exempting housing transfer taxes and granting financial subsidies to stimulate demand for house purchases; 243 cities relax provident fund loans...
According to the monitoring data of the Middle Finger Research Institute, since 2022, more than 300 provinces, cities (counties) across the country have introduced more than a thousand new policies for the property market, and the frequency of optimization has reached the peak in recent years.
"Since the beginning of this year, many places have combined real estate control policies with policies on talent, population, and leasing, such as housing support for multi-child families, housing provident fund purchases for 'one person buying a house for the whole family', leasing restrictions on purchases, and support for centralized housing purchases and other policies." Middle Pointer Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of the Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that after the popularization of these innovative policies in second- and third-tier cities, they have extended to popular cities.
In addition, the optimization and adjustment of demand-side policies also include relaxing the number lottery of new houses and encouraging the resettlement of house tickets for sheds.
More importantly, the recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, protecting people's livelihood, and ensuring stability." Expand the table.
"There is room for further relaxation of control policies in key cities, such as adjusting the recognition of houses and mortgages, relaxation of purchase restrictions, and reduction of down payment ratios." Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at the Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the real estate market in 2023 is expected to The market will still focus on stability, and the effect of loose policies will gradually ferment, and the market will slowly recover from the bottom.
During this period, it is still necessary to effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality leading real estate companies and reduce the overall debt level of the industry. To do this, financial services must keep up.
"Three Arrows Launched Together" to Stabilize Financing
Accelerate risk clearing
In 2022, which is about to pass, liquidity risk events such as financial product defaults, debt extensions, and exchange offers still occur from time to time. The second mention, effectively prevent and defuse risks in the real estate field.
Against this background, the real estate financing policy has been gradually loosened. From the beginning of the year, it was clarified that M&A loans would no longer be counted in the "three red lines" to August, when China's debt increase and credit enhancement supported real estate companies to issue bonds. In September, the regulator instructed banks to add an additional 600 billion yuan For real estate financing, A-share financing of some real estate-related companies was allowed until October, and the breadth and intensity of adjustments continued to increase and deepen.
"In the first half of the year, the company's cash flow mainly came from sales returns, a small amount of cash obtained from asset realization, and other channels, and the proportion of financing was extremely low." A person from the financing department of a real estate company told a reporter from the "Securities Daily". Thanks to policy support, the overall financing environment of the industry has improved. However, due to the prudent strategies of financial institutions and the difficulties of corporate asset mortgage credit enhancement, it is still not easy to replenish cash flow by expanding financing channels.
According to the monitoring of the China Finger Research Institute, from January to November 2022, the total non-bank financing of real estate companies was 779.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.7%; it is estimated that non-bank financing for the whole year of 2022 will reach about 900 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50%.
What has changed is the financing structure of real estate enterprises.
"Credit bonds accounted for half of non-bank financing, an increase of 22.5 percentage points year-on-year; ABS financing accounted for more than 30%, an increase of 8.5 percentage points year-on-year." The proportion of debt and trust financing has dropped significantly, of which overseas debt accounted for only 2.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1 percentage points.
"Domestic debt has become the 'pillar' of non-bank financing for real estate companies this year." Guan Rongxue said.
Xiao Yunxiang, a senior analyst at the Tongce Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporter that in the early stage, real estate companies made efforts in diversified financing channels, such as ABS, green bonds, guaranteed rental housing and industrial park REITs, etc., but high-quality real estate companies, state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises and Urban investment companies are the mainstay, and it is difficult for private real estate enterprises to raise funds both domestically and abroad.
Fortunately, the policy warmth at the end of 2022 has inspired the industry.
The watershed occurred in November, when the attitude of supporting real estate companies’ financing has undergone a fundamental change, and the direction of bailout has shifted from the previous “high-quality projects” to “coexistence of projects and enterprises”. important turning point.
On November 11, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued "16 Financial Articles"; on November 28, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued "5 New Articles" to support real estate equity financing; Backdoor "listed real estate companies.
During this period, at the practical level, credit, bonds, and equity financing "three arrows are launched together."
Up to now, more than 60 banks have extended a total credit of more than 4.8 trillion yuan to real estate companies; 8 private real estate companies have registered and issued bonds of 121 billion yuan; more than 32 listed real estate companies have disclosed their equity financing intentions or plans, China Fortune Land Development, etc. Risky real estate companies are also listed.
Equity financing and backdoor listing have been restarted after many years, and various types of real estate companies and related upstream and downstream companies are expected to benefit.
A number of analysts and relevant people from real estate companies expressed similar opinions to the reporter of "Securities Daily", "On the one hand, it will help reduce the overall debt level and financing costs of the industry, and improve cash flow; To achieve the goal of "guaranteed housing delivery" and debt restructuring, real estate companies that are not out of danger can ease the pressure on debt repayment, and high-quality real estate companies will usher in opportunities for acquisitions and expansion."
Looking forward to the market outlook, it is expected that more real estate companies will carry out business restructuring and asset swaps to speed up the clearing of industry risks.
In addition, as sales stabilize, it is expected to bring a second growth opportunity for the company, and the industry concentration will further increase, forming a new competitive landscape.
The era of great development is over
Transition to a new development model
When stabilizing real estate is included in the "prevention and resolution of major economic and financial tasks", in the face of the current drastic changes in the industry and the re-establishment of the industry competition pattern after the industry is cleared in the future, the leaders of real estate companies also need to re-plan the layout and work hard to move forward .
"The difficulties in the industry have passed, and the dawn has come. There will indeed be some challenges and pressures in the future." Zhu Jiusheng, President of Vanke, said at the above-mentioned extraordinary shareholders' meeting. ; Second, we must keep the development business in the first camp; Third, we must truly realize the transformation from real estate development to real estate development, operation and service, and resolutely complete the transformation.
"For Midea Real Estate, this is not the first time we have felt a biting chill. Clearing up the industry is an inevitable process, and at the same time there are opportunities." Midea Real Estate management staff told the "Securities Daily" reporter that in the future, the company will adjust its development strategy , no longer simply pursue scale, reduce debt, slow down, and gradually increase profit levels. Focus on the development chain business, continue to promote diversified real estate-related businesses, and deepen future-oriented real estate technology capabilities, that is, intelligent and prefabricated buildings. , to maintain a sustained and stable growth momentum.
Behind the new development goals set by stable real estate companies, it indicates that the real estate industry needs to accelerate the smooth transition to a new development model.
"The era of large-scale development has come to an end. The number of 'hundred-billion real estate enterprises' has dropped from 42 at the peak to less than 20 today. In the end, exploring new development models is the only way forward. For example, you can consider increasing the layout of long-term rental housing, affordable housing, urban renewal, and green technology." Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter More importantly, China has the world's largest residential service market, with a scale of more than 30 trillion yuan. Relevant companies can focus on this field and take a diversified development path.
"There is almost no land acquisition this year, but voting meetings are still held very frequently, because people who invest in expanding lines are busy launching projects on behalf of horses." The management of a real estate company told the "Securities Daily" reporter that this is the future of the company. One of the important lines of business that needs to be vigorously expanded.
"The demand side of the agency construction market is generating new demands. For example, the projects of urban investment companies and asset management companies need agency construction companies to take over, and the market size is huge." Xiao Yunxiang said that with the advent of the stock era and the industry entering the era of professional development, real estate The focus of corporate business strategy is gradually shifting from asset-heavy operations to asset-light operations. Asset management and property services are key areas for exploring new development models.
In Liu Shui's view, the new development model involves leasing, property management, business management, agency construction and other light asset directions, as well as urban renewal to revitalize the stock market. In addition, warehousing logistics, industrial park REITs, real estate private equity investment funds, etc. are also important new fields .
It is worth mentioning that capital is helping the real estate industry to enter a new period of development, such as the establishment of a REITs market with returns and risks between the securities market and the bond market, and initial results have been achieved.
Up to now, 4 public offering REITs of guaranteed rental housing have been listed, the first biomedical industrial park REITs has been listed on December 27, and the first private enterprise warehousing and logistics public offering REITs have been approved... From the perspective of the industry, enriching the underlying assets of REITs, It is conducive to the construction of a new housing development model of "simultaneous renting and purchasing".
After 2022, the industry has ushered in a real inflection point. Looking forward to 2023, we can expect that the real estate companies in danger will continue to be liquidated in an orderly manner, and the business operation is expected to gradually return to the right track, and accelerate the transformation to a new model, so as to secure the future of the real estate industry The foundation of healthy development.