Forecasts are a thankless thing.
After all, they are mostly wrong.
In this respect, it is to the credit of the 28 financial institutions that they have been answering the questions of the FAZ time and time again for more than 20 years and submitting their assessments.
More interesting than the mere number that is expected for the Dax, Dow Jones or Euro Stoxx 50 are the thoughts behind it.
Every investor can draw his own conclusions from them.
Editor in Business.
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Editor in Business.
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Perhaps a look into the past will also help.
It is not the first time that there have been discussions about the occurrence and extent of a recession in the most important economic areas at the turn of the year.
At the end of 2008, for example, this was also a big issue when the financial crisis shook the global economy.
In 2009 the recession hit its bottom.
The gross domestic product in Germany fell by an exceptionally significant 5.7 percent.
And the stock year goes down in history as one of the particularly good ones for the Dax with a plus of 24 percent.
Even in 2003, when the recession bottomed out after the dot-com bubble burst, German GDP fell 0.7 percent, but stock markets rose 37 percent.
Stock markets are no friends of recessions.
But they know that after every low comes a high.
In addition, it is clear to stockbrokers that waiting until the economic situation has changed for the better costs valuable returns.
Because the stock markets react quickly.
If you hesitate, you may miss the start.
However, optimal entry and exit is hardly possible.
That's why experts recommend investing in the long term.
Going back and forth empties pockets, is the appropriate stock market slogan, after all, buying and selling transactions cost money.
However, it is deeply human and also the task of asset managers to optimize returns on the capital market.
Nobody likes to get into the stock market just before a crash.
And selling ahead of a swinging bull market is just as painful.
Berenberg Bank has perhaps provided the most appropriate headline for the coming investment year 2023: "Better, not easier" will be the year 2023. Chief investment strategist Bernd Meyer says: "Favourable valuations, higher interest rates and risk premiums, widespread pessimism, low risk positioning and high cash holdings promise a lot better year for investors.” However, Meyer qualifies: “A significant increase in valuation is unlikely, the risks remain high and renewed setbacks are likely.”
In the middle of the year, the Berenberg Bank sees the Dax rising from currently around 14,000 points to 15,000 points and by the end of the year to 15,700 points.
This would be an increase of more than 10 percent and quite remarkable.
"Once the inflation hump is over, the markets are likely to focus on growth," says Meyer.
"This should first weaken before it gets better later in the year." He sees opportunities in commodities, corporate and emerging market bonds as well as equities from Europe and individual emerging countries.
"The focus of investors should shift from the stock side to a broad lineup to use the return and diversification opportunities of all asset classes," says Meyer.
Helaba is even more optimistic for the Dax with an annual target of 16,000 points.
The bank already had this goal for 2022, making it the most pessimistic in our survey – and closest to reality.
Equity strategist Markus Reinwand is now anticipating a recession in the USA and the euro zone, which the central banks are not combating with interest rate cuts because inflation is only falling gradually.
"Equities have already priced in the abundance of burdens," says Reinwand.
The most important conditions for bottoming out have been met: favorable valuation, very negative economic expectations, pessimistic investor sentiment and an interim technical oversold situation.
"Since shares are on average half a year ahead of the economy, we expect a dynamic price recovery to 16,000 points by the end of 2023," says Reinwand.