(Year-end Economic Observation) Under the global "interest rate hike", how can China's monetary policy "maintain itself"?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, December 25th (Reporter Xia Bin) In order to solve the problem of inflation, the world's major economies that will continue to tighten monetary policies in 2022 have set off the most extensive and strongest "acceleration" in recent years. Breathing tide".

　　Under the leadership of the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates seven times during the year and a cumulative increase of 425 basis points, the European Central Bank and economies such as the United Kingdom, Iceland, Norway, Canada, South Korea, the Philippines, Bahrain, New Zealand, Hungary, Poland, Mexico, Peru, Argentina, and South Africa The central banks of all countries have participated in the "army" of interest rate hikes.

　　According to incomplete statistics by reporters from China News Agency, the central banks of about 90 economies have raised interest rates this year, and the total number of interest rate hikes has exceeded 300. Among them, it is not uncommon for a single large-scale interest rate hike to be at least 75 basis points.

　　According to Zhang Xiaohui, former assistant to the governor of the People's Bank of China, the "wave of interest rate hikes" may exacerbate the risk of global economic recession and increase the risk of financial stability.

And China is the world's second largest economy. Looking back at the internal and external tests that China has experienced in the past few decades, an important experience is that we must first do our own things well.

　　As Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, said before, monetary policy serves the economy. Different countries have different economic fundamentals and financial environments, so monetary policies should of course be different. This principle is like different people wearing different shoes. different economies to pursue different monetary policies.

"As a major economic country, China should implement monetary policy independently based on its own national conditions."

　　Zhang Xiaohui said that since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008, especially since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, China is one of the few major economies that still implements a normal monetary policy and has maintained policy determination.

The monetary authorities have neither "flooded floods" in financial support to fight the epidemic, nor adopted unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing, zero interest rates or even negative interest rates, but instead used reforms to improve the ability of the financial sector to serve the real economy.

　　Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Director of Zhixin Investment Research Institute, said that under the circumstances of exchange rate fluctuations and relatively high international pressure, China's monetary policy should be firmly "self-centered". In the most important position of monetary policy, it is necessary to effectively support the operation of the real economy through the operation of various monetary policy tools.

　　Since the beginning of this year, China's prudent monetary policy has been flexible, moderate, precise and effective, and has continuously increased its support for the real economy.

The People's Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions twice to release long-term funds; supported project construction through policy-based developmental financial instruments; continued to play the role of structural monetary policy tools, and issued scientific and technological innovation, inclusive pensions, transportation and logistics, and equipment establishment Refinancing and other special refinancing.

　　The "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2022" stated that it is necessary to increase the implementation of prudent monetary policy, do a good job in cross-cycle adjustment, take into account short-term and long-term, economic growth and price stability, internal and external balance, and insist on not engaging in " "Flood irrigation", do not issue excessive currency, and provide stronger and higher-quality support for the real economy.

　　Lian Ping believes that China proceeds from its own reality and continues to implement counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical adjustments in a targeted manner under the circumstances of greater downward pressure on the economy, instead of following the United States to raise interest rates and tighten relevant policies like other countries.

For a certain period of time, China has maintained this policy tone unswervingly.

　　Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, also said that unlike emerging economies or developed countries where imported inflation soars, China’s current effective demand is relatively insufficient, inflation, especially core inflation, is low, and monetary policy adheres to the principle of “self-centered” Under the target, it is expected to continue to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity to help the economy grow steadily.

　　Regarding the direction of monetary policy next year, the recent Central Economic Work Conference proposed that a prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful.

Liu Guoqiang pointed out that for the monetary policy in 2023, the total amount must be sufficient and the structure must be accurate.

The total amount must be sufficient, including better meeting the needs of the real economy, and maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the financial market, and maintaining reasonable flexibility in the price of funds without major fluctuations.

　　If the structure is to be correct, it is necessary to continue to increase support for key areas and weak links such as inclusive small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, green development, and infrastructure, and to continue to implement a series of structural monetary policies.

　　Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, told a reporter from China News Agency that in 2023, the Federal Reserve may end raising interest rates in the first half of the year, and the terminal interest rate may be close to 5.25% to 5.5%.

Against such a background, it is expected that China’s monetary policy will take the improvement of internal balance as the primary goal, taking into account the external balance. In the application of the model of monetary policy discretion, it will be relatively more stable for domestic demand recovery, employment stability, endogenous structure optimization, and domestic price stability. High impact factor, mainly based on me, dynamically optimized.

(use up)