Year-end Economic Observation: Weakening external demand, how will China's foreign trade be relieved in 2023?

(Year-end Economic Observation) With weakening external demand, how will China's foreign trade be relieved in 2023?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, December 23 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) In 2022, China's foreign trade will withstand heavy pressure and achieve stable growth.

Analysts here believe that although there will be more challenges next year, China's foreign trade, which has been tested for a long time, is still expected to improve steadily and drive the overall economic recovery.

　　At present, the overall operation of China's foreign trade is stable.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China's total import and export value in the first 11 months was 38.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%.

Among them, exports were 21.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year; imports were 16.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%; the trade surplus expanded by 42.8%.

This year, the scale of China's foreign trade has hit a record high, and there is little suspense.

　　This performance is also quite impressive compared with other major economies around the world.

Japan has experienced a trade deficit for 16 consecutive months, of which the trade deficit in November hit a new high in the same period in the past ten years; South Korea's trade deficit has set a new record this year.

　　But China's foreign trade is not without worries.

Due to sluggish external demand, the year-on-year growth rate of China's single-month imports and exports has declined for four consecutive months, and the traditional peak season for foreign trade in the fourth quarter does not seem to "boost".

In 2023, the downturn in external demand will bring greater challenges to China's foreign trade.

　　According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.7% in 2023, and there is a 25% probability that the growth rate will be lower than 2%.

According to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, at least one-third of countries will fall into recession next year.

The OECD forecast is even more pessimistic, suggesting that the global economy may grow by only 2.2% next year.

　　According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) report, global merchandise trade volume may only grow by 1% in 2023, far lower than the previous forecast of 3.4%, which will exacerbate the risk of global economic recession.

The WTO pointed out that previous trade expectations for 2023 appeared to be "overly optimistic" because energy prices are now soaring, inflation is wider and the crisis in Ukraine shows no signs of abating.

　　Lian Ping, Chief Economist and Director of the Research Institute of Zhixin Investment, believes that the bleak growth prospects of major economies such as Europe and the United States mean that the total overseas demand will decline next year, and the inflation in Europe and the United States will remain high. Unfavorable factors such as the accelerated adjustment of the industrial chain and supply chain within the scope, China's exports will face greater pressure next year.

　　Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that under the background of overall shrinking external demand, the competition for "splitting the cake" in the international market is bound to become more intense next year.

China must seize the time and step up efforts to stabilize foreign trade in order to seize the opportunity and avoid a significant decline in the growth rate of foreign trade.

　　Action has already begun.

After Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other major foreign trade provinces organized groups of foreign trade enterprises to go to Europe, Japan and other places to "grab orders", many localities and industry associations in China have taken action to provide convenience for enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions and carry out business negotiations.

Some fast-moving companies have tasted the sweetness.

For example, during the International Sporting Goods Exhibition in Munich, Germany, more than 50 participating companies signed orders worth about 18 million euros, and intended orders amounted to about 35 million euros.

　　Wei Jianguo, the former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that private enterprises have been tested by the market for a long time, and most of them have rich experience, quick response and strong innovation ability.

Private enterprises seized the opportunity to go overseas to "grab orders", which will provide strong support for China's foreign trade stabilization.

　　At the macro level, as the "weather vane" of China's economic policy next year, the Central Economic Work Conference held a few days ago has made it clear that greater efforts should be made to promote foreign trade to stabilize the scale and optimize the structure.

Analysts believe that this indicates that a series of stable foreign trade policies aimed at fully stimulating the vitality of enterprises, reducing the burden on enterprises and promoting market diversification will be introduced one after another.

　　Wei Jianguo said that with the continuous release of various policy effects and the full mobilization of the enthusiasm and daring spirit of foreign trade enterprises, China's foreign trade is expected to continue to grow steadily next year and contribute to China's economy.

(use up)