Iran: 2022, a year of crises
An Iranian fan holds up a jersey in memory of Iranian Mahsa Amini, during the World Cup in Qatar on November 25.
REUTERS - DYLAN MARTINEZ
Text by: Nicolas Falez Follow
4 mins
In Iran, 2022 will remain the year of an unprecedented protest movement, which broke out when a 22-year-old young woman, Mahsa Amini, died in custody after being arrested by the morality police.
Since September, demonstrations hostile to the regime have followed one another.
In the face of anger, power represses.
A crisis that further accentuates the showdown between the Islamic Republic and the West.
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"
I am full of hope, I know there can be no turning back
,
"
says this Iranian who has testified regularly on RFI since the start of the protest movement provoked by
the violent death of Mahsa Amini
.
In recent months, this resident of a large Iranian city has demonstrated by chanting "Woman, Life Freedom", the slogan of the movement.
Then she stopped taking to the streets after being very scared during a chase with the police.
She says she is surprised and proud to see many women now circulating without the compulsory veil.
She herself sometimes moves with her hair in the wind, as a sign of defiance.
“
I don't know how long it will take, or how many people will unfortunately be killed.
I don't know if I'll be part of
it, she tells us,
I don't know what the future holds.
But there will be a revolution here.
And we will see its consequences all over the world, especially in the Middle East.
Because what they have done here in three months is like what they have been doing for 44 years and I think that is enough.
»
Mahsa Amini was a young Iranian.
She was also a member of the Kurdish minority in Iran. "
There is a convergence sought by all the components of Iranian society who participate in this movement, whatever their geographical location, their ethnicity or identity, their social class
", analyzes Ali Vaez, in charge of Iran for the International Crisis Group (ICG), an independent American institute specializing in conflict prevention.
“
It's as if everyone understood that a
modus vivendi
with the Islamic Republic was no longer possible.
So they are no longer asking for reforms within the system, but they are asking for profound political change
,” continues the specialist.
Repression
According to NGOs trying to establish the balance sheet of the protest and repression, more than 450 people have been killed since last September.
Arrests number in the thousands and demonstrators have been sentenced to death, several have already been executed.
At the end of the year, the gatherings continue, sporadic, but determined.
Until when ?
“
The regime is not in a position to prevent people from demonstrating.
Just as protesters are unable to bring down an entrenched regime,
says Ali Vaez,
it has become a war of attrition and the question is who will run out first.
It is difficult for a movement without organization, leaders or program to maintain pressure in the face of very harsh repression.
But for the International Crisis Group researcher “
it's just a matter of time before the Islamic Republic collapses, victim of its own failures.
In a year.
Five years ?
Ten years ?
It is very difficult to estimate.
»
Nuclear dossier, drones and imprisoned Westerners
What Iran is going through at the end of 2022 is an accumulation of crises: while Iranian power is being challenged in the streets, it is pursuing a nuclear program which today makes it very
close to the status of State possessing atomic weapons
.
Last summer, negotiations for a new nuclear agreement failed.
"
The West now has little desire to negotiate with a regime that kills its own people in the streets and indirectly kills Ukrainians by supplying Russia with armaments which it uses for its war of aggression against Ukraine,”
notes Ali Vaez.
He adds : "
nor can the West ignore the ticking time bomb represented by the nuclear program of Iran, which in two decades has never been so close to possessing a nuclear weapon
”.
In 2022, tensions between Iran and the West have also increased because the Islamic Republic is imprisoning
foreign nationals
: around twenty Westerners, including
seven French people,
are today behind bars in this country.
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