In the past three years, when we talked about the epidemic, there was one topic that could not be avoided:
economy.
No one wants to be infected with a virus. The problem is, the virus emerges and has to be prevented.
The prevention and control of the epidemic has caused some social and economic activities to be suspended, which is bound to have an impact on the economy.
In the dilemma, we can only keep looking for the best policy force.
In the past three years, China's economy has not been easy, and it has not been easy for every Chinese. It is natural to have different confusions and worries.
Starting from these three dimensions, we can see the economic situation next year.
Many people say that the general environment will affect the development of individuals.
Similarly, China's economy is also subject to the general environment.
What will the global economy look like in 2022?
｜｜Inflation is at its highest level in decades;
｜｜Growth in worst decline since recovery from recession in 1970;
｜｜The decline in global consumer confidence far exceeds that seen before previous global recessions.
Even so, the worst is yet to come - the International Monetary Fund has warned that a recession will be felt by many in 2023.
The implication is that 2022 is only on the verge of economic recession, and 2023 may be the beginning of economic recession.
The more severe situation in the world may be yet to come.
China's export industry has already felt the chill.
The latest data show that my country's exports in November fell by 8.7% year-on-year.
We all know that in the past few years, China's exports have been "outstanding", which has played a very rare role in supporting the overall economic market.
But judging from the latest data, exports have also begun to appear relatively large worries.
The impact of the downturn in the general environment will be directly reflected in the growth rate of China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year.
But in fact, looking back at the past, China has developed all the way, and the surrounding environment has not always been smooth.
The official report of the International Monetary Fund regards the degree of per capita GDP decline as an indicator to measure the world economic recession. Here is the trend chart of world per capita GDP since 2008:
It can be found that after 2008, the world economy experienced three distinct periods of recession.
The most recent time was after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
We are also experiencing it ourselves.
It can also be seen from the figure that the recession triggered by the epidemic has not exceeded the extent of the previous two recessions.
In 2008, the average inflation rate of countries around the world rose to a new high in 10 years.
The world GDP growth rate has also changed from 4.5% in 2007 to -1.3% in 2009.
More importantly, this economic crisis triggered by the United States and spreading to the world has made the Chinese understand the importance of preventing financial risks.
The recession of 2014 was just as severe - from 2014 to 2016, the world's GDP growth rate fell:
｜｜The world GDP growth rate in 2014 was 3.1%;
｜｜The world GDP growth rate in 2015 was 3.1%;
｜｜In 2016, the world GDP growth rate was 2.8%.
At the same time, China's economy is still stabilizing its own rhythm. You can look at a set of data:
From 2013 to 2021, my country's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at an average annual rate of 6.6%, which is higher than the average growth rate of 2.6% in the world and 3.7% in developing economies during the same period.
During this period, China's per capita GDP rose from more than 6,000 US dollars to more than 12,000 US dollars, and its world ranking rose by dozens of places.
The general environment fluctuates from time to time, but we have all overcome it, and at a relatively small cost that is controllable.
Let's do the math, it will be more intuitive:
In 2013, the total global GDP was 77.61 trillion U.S. dollars, and in 2021, the total global GDP will be 96.1 trillion U.S. dollars.
In the past 10 years, the total global GDP has increased by 18.49 trillion US dollars.
Of the US$18.49 trillion, China increased by US$8.16 trillion, accounting for 44%.
In fact, along the way, the turbulent waves around us have never been absent.
China has the courage to set sail and is good at turning crises into opportunities in a harsh environment.
But risks and challenges come one after another, and one wave is higher than the other.
In 2018, the United States launched a trade war against China.
At the beginning of the trade war, just like today, many people were worried about the prospects of China's economy, and very few people even said that "surrendering to the United States is the least expensive now".
Since then, the U.S. government has advocated "decoupling" and "breaking the chain" to contain China at all levels.
Now, four years have passed.
Everyone knows the result:
The trade volume between China and the United States has increased instead of falling. The total bilateral trade in goods between China and the United States has risen from US$633.52 billion in 2018 to US$755.645 billion in 2021.
The development gap between China and the United States is constantly narrowing, and the total GDP difference has narrowed from 6.69 trillion US dollars in 2018 to 5.26 trillion US dollars in 2021.
Not long ago, the World Trade Organization (WTO) issued a report ruling that the United States imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products in 2018 in violation of relevant WTO regulations.
This means that in the Sino-US trade war, we not only win by force, but also by reason.
Therefore, whether it is the staged and cyclical problems in the process of global economic development, or the trend of anti-globalization initiated by some countries, we have all experienced it. Looking back now, we have caused many people to sing bad news. bankruptcy.
Right now, people feel more real about the difficulties and have more questions about the recovery, which is also normal-the environment will definitely affect us.
But the environment does not determine whether we will stay or not. The initiative to act is in our hands.
Remember this picture:
This is a line chart of the Chinese economy in 2020.
We have just experienced such a rebound.
After the optimization of China's epidemic prevention and control measures, the US investment bank JPMorgan Chase raised China's economic growth rate for next year. The reason for the increase is that the door to China's economic recovery has been opened.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs, PricewaterhouseCoopers and other institutions have expressed their optimism about the Chinese economy in 2023.
The signal sent by the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference is also stronger.
In the past two days, Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in charge of daily work, gave a clearer judgment: after comprehensive research and judgment, the growth rate of the world economy may decline significantly next year, while my country's economy may rebound in general, thus forming an independent upward trajectory.
Of course, past experience templates cannot be applied intact to the present.
Especially when we talk about such a grand topic as China's economic forecast, we must also give answers to some specific questions that are actually happening. When looking at the Chinese economy, we must also pay attention to the present.
For example, not long ago, the issue of express delivery capacity became the focus of everyone's attention. Many people questioned whether the Chinese economy can really recover if the express delivery cannot be delivered?
But what everyone didn't expect was that in just a few days, the problem of insufficient capacity was alleviated.
The reason is very simple. The lack of express delivery capacity is just a lack of manpower. It is "no rice to cook". The capacity scheduling is only a technical problem, and the "pot" of infrastructure and other hardware has been continuously improved in advance.
With the replenishment of capacity, this problem will no longer bother everyone.
Behind the courier brother is connected to the Internet, Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, 5G, smart logistics, etc.
These words, in addition to being reflected in the daily life of "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai free shipping", are also profoundly changing the pattern of China's economy.
｜｜You may not think that every time you order a takeaway, it will affect at least 106 industries
The quick solution to the problem is the result of these technologies taking root in different regions of China in the past 5, 10, or even more than ten years.
The vast territory of China provides these technologies with rich and sufficient application scenarios, enabling them to continuously operate, upgrade, and optimize at a speed that is difficult to match in other parts of the world.
This reflects the depth of China's development.
With the adjustment and change of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the pace of liberalization in different provinces and cities in China is echelon and gradual.
In other words, the resilience of the supply chain allows us to efficiently mobilize accumulated resources to solve some focal problems. As long as the rhythm and gap are opened, this way of concentrating our efforts to solve problems will also allow us to recover faster.
This is the resilience of China's supply chain. This resilience is also providing strong support for the recovery of China's industry.
Recently, many people have paid attention to the matter of chartering flights from multiple provinces to sea.
A company from Jiangsu went to South Africa.
In South Africa, the company inspected local mines, warehouses and ports, and finally made a decision to actively deploy the South African market and signed an order.
When enterprises go overseas to expand their markets, they must solve the problem of the movement of elements across physical spaces, and the connectivity of infrastructure and supply chains are crucial.
It is worth mentioning that this company has investigated the South African market many years ago.
Obviously, the time to go deep into South Africa was not so ripe at that time, especially the connectivity of the infrastructure is not what it used to be - the port of Durban in South Africa that this company visited was a reconstruction project participated by the BRICS New Development Bank.
In the past few years, many countries like South Africa have not only improved their own infrastructure, but also won more development opportunities in the process of jointly building the "Belt and Road".
In the process of communicating with Chinese enterprises, we have deepened mutual understanding and expanded the development space of both parties.
Enterprises are expanding their respective radii.
The extension of the radius is a new opportunity.
Through the mining of public data, we found that after the release of the "New Ten Articles", at least 23 provinces and cities have introduced policies to support enterprises' overseas market expansion.
It should be noted that the basic conditions supporting economic development have not changed. A strong supply network has always existed. When the vitality of the industry needs to be re-stimulated, the Chinese economy will also burst into a strong momentum.
A few days ago, the Central Economic Work Conference was held to set the tone for economic development in 2023.
After the closing of the meeting, many interpretations and analyzes were released, discussing the issue of "how to do" China's economy next year.
One focus of attention is to expand domestic demand.
Because of the five key tasks, the first is to focus on expanding domestic demand, and at the same time it is mentioned that the recovery and expansion of consumption should be given priority.
Many people feel puzzled after seeing it. Now that the peak of the epidemic has not yet arrived, many people are reluctant to go out for consumption.
Is it feasible to restore and expand consumption as a priority?
Is it reliable to expand domestic demand by stimulating consumption?
I don't know if you have noticed another sentence:
Vigorously boost market confidence and organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reforms.
The term supply-side structural reform is no stranger to those who follow the Chinese economy.
The core of supply-side structural reform lies in total factor productivity, that is, the overall efficiency of factor input into output.
We must take supply-side structural reforms as the main line and promote changes in the quality, efficiency, and power of economic development in order to continuously enhance my country's economic innovation and competitiveness.
It can be seen that the expansion of domestic demand combined with the deepening of supply-side structural reform is not simply to stimulate consumption, but to use new supply and new innovation as a starting point to leverage domestic demand and increase consumption.
To give a simple example, before the appearance of Apple mobile phones, most mobile phones had keyboards, but Apple mobile phones used their new supply to create a broad market for touch-screen mobile phones.
Apple's mobile phone uses continuous technological innovation to meet and even guide new consumer demand. This is the supply-side structural reform.
At the Central Economic Work Conference, support for housing improvement, new energy vehicles, and elderly care services were listed as consumption priorities for next year.
In these three fields, especially the latter two fields, because of the improvement of production capacity and product quality on the supply side, and the expansion of consumption space, many people must have felt the same way.
Taking new energy vehicles as an example, new energy vehicles are not only booming in the domestic consumption field, but in the first 10 months of this year, exports reached 499,000, a year-on-year increase of 96.7%.
Where did this number come from?
It is the automobile industry that has seized the window period for high-quality development and has become a "new force" in China's intelligent manufacturing.
In 2021, China will export more than 400,000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of nearly three times, and Europe has become a major market.
More importantly, competition with local auto brands will accelerate the upgrading and optimization of domestic new energy vehicles.
For example, more targeted customized production services have enabled the development of "flexible" production to go deeper into the field of new energy vehicles, which in turn has created new consumption scenarios for the country, allowing Chinese consumers to enjoy more high-quality and low-cost products .
In the past two days, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, also clearly pointed out in his analysis of the situation next year that next year, we will continue to support the integrated development of online and offline commodity consumption, develop new retail formats such as smart supermarkets, smart stores, and smart restaurants, and cultivate Internet. + Social digital, digital + new life service model, develop new digital consumption formats such as smart home, smart health care, smart tourism, smart travel, smart radio and television, and smart sports.
Promote the development of new forms of consumption such as the sharing economy, and support the development of new individual economic models such as social e-commerce and webcasting.
These are undoubtedly good examples of the Chinese economy's early deployment of the digital economy, new supply and new demand.
Supply-side structural reform is, in the final analysis, a reform.
This reform will help China's economic recovery change from the past expansion to connotation development, and promote the transformation of quality, efficiency and power of China's economy.
Expanding domestic demand combined with deepening supply-side structural reforms will not only solve the problem of short-term recovery of China's economy, but also lay a solid foundation for the high-quality development of China's economy.
Reform tests wisdom, courage and action.
｜｜Through the mining of public data, we found that after the release of the "New Ten Rules" on December 7, many places took immediate action to optimize epidemic prevention and control measures
Right now, with the adjustment of a new round of prevention and control policies in various places, there may be another wave of epidemic pressure in the short term.
However, as proposed in the Central Economic Work Conference: Strengthen overall planning and connection, organize and implement in an orderly manner, smoothly pass through the epidemic period, and ensure a smooth transition and social order stability.
The people's yearning for a better life remains unchanged, and China will continue to deepen reforms and move towards high-quality development.
There are 900 million working-age people in our country. These 900 million people go out to make money every day, and they are all running around for their livelihood.
They are fathers or mothers, sons or daughters, everyone, longing for a better life.
Everyone's wish is insignificant, but together, it is an inexhaustible driving force to push the country forward.
As long as more than 1.4 billion Chinese people are working hard, the Chinese economy will have momentum, and no one will lose confidence in the Chinese economy.
(Yuyuan Tantian WeChat public account)