China-Singapore Jingwei, December 19th (Dong Wenbo) The new week has begun. Some people have turned overcast after the sun has passed, some have coughed until they can't sleep all night, and some people continue to guard against death while cheering for Messi.

　　Returning to the secondary market, on the 19th, the main A-share indexes opened lower collectively, and the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index continued to drop, both falling by more than 1% intraday.

The performance of real estate stocks was more impressive, and many stocks rose by the daily limit.

Under the heavy tone set by the Central Economic Work Conference, how will the real estate market perform with comprehensive policies?

What is the expected performance of A shares and real estate stocks in the market outlook?

Baojiao Building

　　On the morning of the 19th, the Wind real estate index quickly rose by nearly 2% at the beginning of the session.

In terms of individual stocks, Zhujiang shares have a flat board, and Lushang Development has a daily limit; Gree Real Estate once again recorded a seven-session board, and the stock price stood at 12.69 yuan to reach a new high; Phoenix shares, China Communications Real Estate, Guangyu Group and other stocks were once closed plate.

　　Source: Wind

　　From December 15th to 16th, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing.

　　The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to ensure the stable development of the real estate market,

do a solid job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood, and stability

, meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry, and promote industry restructuring and mergers.

It is necessary to implement policies according to the city, support rigid and improved housing needs, solve the housing problems of new citizens and young people, and explore the construction of the long-term rental housing market.

We must adhere to the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation, and promote the smooth transition of the real estate industry to a new development model.

　　It can be seen that this meeting has added emphasis on guaranteeing the delivery of buildings and stabilizing financing, and will preface the statement.

　　Shenwan Hongyuan Research Macro Chief Analyst Qin Tai’s team pointed out that this meeting made more detailed deployment of real estate financing side guarantees and handovers. Under the background that the current pre-sale housing area under construction is still huge, it is necessary to

stabilize real estate development financing and promote real estate development. Real estate investment and completion improvement are important starting points for short-term stable growth

.

　　Lian Ping, Chief Economist of Zhixin Investment and Director of the Research Institute, pointed out that it is the first time after many years that it is clearly stated that housing demand must be supported. demand for policy support.

In view of the current downturn in the real estate market and the tight financial situation of real estate companies, it is expected that the management of the housing system will provide further support from both supply and demand next year.

　　Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, judged that in 2023, the policy will focus on guiding the real estate industry to achieve a soft landing as soon as possible, driving the sales of commercial housing, real estate investment, and the land market to stabilize and recover.

In the next step, there

is still a lot of room for policy support

. In addition to effectively implementing the financial support policies for real estate companies represented by the "Three Arrows", the later policy "toolbox" will relax housing purchase conditions, reduce down payment ratios, and lower residential mortgage interest rates. There is still more space.

Risk prevention

　　It is worth noting that the Central Economic Work Conference put the content of real estate in the part of preventing and defusing risks, and clearly required

effective prevention and resolution of risks in high-quality leading real estate companies, improving the status of assets and liabilities, and at the same time resolutely cracking down on illegal and criminal activities

in accordance with the law .

In the past, it was generally placed in the people's livelihood security and other parts.

　　Yang Chang, chief analyst of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, believes that ensuring the stable development of the real estate market has become one of the contents of preventing and defusing major economic and financial risks.

Gao Ruidong, chief macro-economist of Everbright Securities, also believes that this shows that the current tone of the real estate issue is no longer at the economic level, but involves "major risks". Therefore, the urgency of further policy efforts to resolve risks is also promote.

　　Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that this meeting put the real estate content under the framework of economic and financial risks, which

fully shows that the real estate risk prevention has risen to a new height, and it also shows that the risk prevention work has become a real estate task. important work

.

　　Yan Yuejin further stated that from the perspective of existing work, the concept of "three guarantees" is mainly mentioned. In other words, only by doing a good job in three guarantees can real estate have a sustainable and stable foundation.

At the same time, the meeting also analyzed the risks of leading real estate companies, the status of assets and liabilities, and crimes, indicating that these three areas are prone to new risks, and they need to be paid special attention in 2023.

　　Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, emphasized that with the "three arrows coming together", various financial support policies have been introduced one after another, but it

may still take a transition period from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market, from blood transfusion to blood

production .

　　Wen Bin said that from the perspective of the supply side, with the re-opening of various financing channels, high-quality real estate companies will regain their vitality, and the entire industry may usher in a wave of restructuring and mergers, and industry risks are expected to be further mitigated.

From the perspective of demand, incremental policies involving "four restrictions", down payment ratio, and second set of certification are expected to be further introduced. There is still room for downward adjustment of the 5-year LPR.

Institution: A-share volatility, focus on real estate and other chains

　　Looking forward to 2023, Wang Qing believes that it is expected that around the middle of 2023, the real estate market is expected to show a trend of recovery, which will end the industry's downward cycle of about two years.

　　Wen Bin said that with the continuous release of policy effectiveness, it is tended to believe that the real estate market is expected to bottom out and rebound in the first half of 2023 at the earliest. At that time, real estate will turn from a drag factor of economic growth to a stable factor again.

　　For A-shares, CITIC Securities believes that, on the whole, after the policy of the Central Economic Work Conference is set, the game of policy expectations ebbs and the epidemic becomes the core observation variable.

It is expected that until February next year, the market will still be dominated by short-term transactions characterized by stock games, and the

volatility will still be relatively large

.

In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors

focus on balanced allocation around the three main domestic demand lines of medicine and medical care, real estate industry chain, and travel chain

, and pay attention to the theme of digital economy with positive policy settings.

　　CICC stated that the Central Economic Work Conference will pay more attention to the recovery of economic growth and confidence next year, and has responded to market concerns on many major issues such as the epidemic, real estate, state-owned enterprises and the private economy, and opening up. Both release more positive signals, which will not only help boost the confidence of entrepreneurs, but also help restore investor confidence.

Investors are advised to focus on areas of policy support and make arrangements along three main lines: First, areas where expectations are not high and marginal changes in policies are greatly affected, such as real estate chains, consumer food and beverages, and home appliances.

The second is a manufacturing growth track with high prosperity and policy support, such as high-end manufacturing and military industry.

The third is pharmaceuticals and the Internet, etc., whose stock prices are relatively fully adjusted.

　　GF Securities said that the upward momentum of A shares in the future will mainly come from the restoration of valuations from pessimistic expectations.

Looking forward to the market outlook, value is still dominant. It is recommended to pay attention to the two clues of bottoming out and rebuilding.

In terms of support, you can pay attention to the real estate chain (home appliances, furniture), the travel chain that benefits from the optimization of epidemic prevention policies, and the pharmaceutical chain

(medical equipment, medical services, traditional Chinese medicine) that benefit in the medium term; in terms of reconstruction, it is recommended to pay attention to the revaluation of central state-owned enterprises (energy, Technology central enterprises), stable anti-monopoly policies (Internet, platform economy).

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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