There are only a few spots left for this year.

Over the past year, the Japanese market has been at the mercy of extraordinary events such as Russia's military invasion and record inflation in the West.

Next year, 2023, is the year of the rabbit, and in the market proverb, it is also said to “jump”.

We will look ahead to next year's market to see if it will be a year of leaps forward.

(Economic Department reporter Keiichiro Furuichi)

Looking back on the year of the tiger

It's the year of the tiger.

I wondered if I would be able to live up to the proverb of “running a thousand miles,”



but it was a year full of stumbling blocks.



On January 4th, the Nikkei Stock Average rose by more than 500 yen compared to the end of the year on the first day of the new year, recovering to the 29,000 yen level.

It started with the first rise in four years.



However, after that, stock prices repeatedly fluctuated due to factors such as Russia's military invasion and the United States' significant interest rate hike, and the Nikkei Stock Average is still hovering around 28,000 yen.

It could be said that Tora went through a year where, far from being a stumbling block, he "went into a cage and got smaller."

5 wins and 3 losses in the past year of the rabbit

Think again, what will happen next year in the year of the rabbit?



According to a survey by Nomura Securities, in terms of annual stock price fluctuations over the past 100 years, the year of the rabbit has 5 "rises" and 3 "falls", with 5 wins and 3 losses.

It means that the "winning rate" is the 7th among the zodiac.

Let's take a look at the Nikkei Stock Average to see how the last two times were.



2011: 10,228.92 yen (end of previous year) → 8,455.35 yen


It was a year of suffering from the effects of the Great East Japan Earthquake in March and the appreciation of the yen.

The yen hit an all-time high of 75 yen to the dollar, and the Nikkei Stock Average fell 17% over the course of the year.



1999 ¥13,842.17 (at the end of the previous year) → ¥18,934.34 As


the economy continues to stagnate due to factors such as the financial crisis, the Bank of Japan introduced a zero interest rate policy to guide short-term interest rates to extremely low levels.

The Nikkei Stock Average rose 36% year-on-year, riding the trend of global high stock prices, also known as the IT bubble.

It was the 13th highest rate of increase in the last 100 years.

2023 is the water rabbit

Stock prices have shown contrasting movements in the last two times, but what will happen next year?

Nomura Securities has put together a report focusing on the concept of "10 zodiac" rather than "12 zodiac", which is the etymology of the sexagenary cycle.



The ten pickles are composed of the following elements: A, B, Hei, Ding, Ho, I, Gen, Spicy, Mi, and Qi. )”.



"癸" means "a state of preparation for the end of things and the beginning of a new cycle".

Investors are hoping that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and US interest rate hikes will end and a new stage will begin.



By the way, the last "Kuan" was in 1963.

It was the year that President Kennedy was assassinated in the United States, but Japan was in the period of high economic growth and the tax exemption system for personal savings started.



This year, the Nikkei average stock price fell below the previous year, but what about next year?

do rabbits jump

When I interview market participants about the outlook for the market next year, I can see that there is growing concern that the brakes will be applied to the US and other overseas economies.



Furthermore, the composition that the international situation is shaken by the confrontation between the United States and China and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has not changed.

In Japan, soaring prices and trends in the foreign exchange market are likely to continue to influence the market.



We interviewed Shoichiro Yamauchi, senior strategist at Nomura Securities, who compiled the aforementioned Juboshi report.

“Even though the global economy is affected by record-breaking inflation and other factors, the performance and future prospects of Japanese companies are solid. The current market position is based on the premise that large-scale monetary easing will continue, so if there are any signs of revisions or changes in monetary policy, it will likely have a considerable impact on the stock market. "

Focus on investment in people

The last thing I would like to focus on is "investment in people."



It is positioned as a priority area in the "new capitalism" advocated by the Kishida administration, but efforts to increase the potential of individuals are important for the Japanese economy to make further progress.



From now on, human resources and funds will be directed to "a company where individuals can demonstrate their abilities and take on challenges" and "a company that values ​​people".

Led by these companies, wage increases will spread, and the Japanese economy will leap forward like a rabbit to a new stage.

I would like to expect that next year will be such a year.

attention schedule

Next week, the BOJ will hold its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, March 20, after which Governor Kuroda is scheduled to hold a press conference.

Including this one, there will be three more press conferences after the decision-making meeting that Governor Kuroda will hold until April.

Not only the outcome of the meeting, but also what kind of statements will be made about the prospects for future monetary policy will be closely watched.



On the 23rd (Friday), the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will announce the consumer price index.

Many people are predicting the high 3% range, but whether or not it hits the 4% range is also a focus.