Eight billion tons - never before has mankind burned so much coal in one year.

Experts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) predict that it will now exceed this threshold for the first time.

This would have broken the previous consumption record from 2013.

The new IEA annual report on the coal market raises considerable doubts as to whether the current crisis on the electricity and gas markets will actually turn into the "historic and final turning point" in global energy supply, as the authority promised in October in the run-up to the world climate conference would have.

Niklas Zaboji

Economic correspondent in Paris

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At least one thing is certain: this year there was no turning point.

Overall, according to their estimate, coal consumption will increase by 1.2 percent within a year.

Although the USA probably consumed a little less coal this year, China and above all India and the member states of the European Union used this raw material much more extensively.

Strong demand for the particularly climate-damaging energy source coal is fueling global warming.

The development in China, which at 53 percent is by far the largest coal consumer and, together with India, is also the largest coal producer, is particularly noticeable.

In the Middle Kingdom, economic output grew more slowly this year than in the past due to the zero-Covid policy, which actually did not mean that the energy demand would increase too much.

Heat drives up electricity consumption in China

However, periods of drought and heat waves in China have increased the power consumption of air conditioning systems and hampered the production of hydroelectric power plants.

The IEA experts explain that this fueled the burning of coal.

In August alone, coal-fired power generation in China increased by around 15 percent to more than 500 terawatt hours within a year.

"This monthly generation level is higher than total annual coal-fired power generation in all countries except India and the United States," the Energy Agency points out.

In other regions such as Europe, it was above all the sharp rise in natural gas prices as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that, according to the IEA, promoted the switch to cheaper coal.

The production of the hydroelectric power plants, which was also reduced here due to the drought, and the technical problems in the French nuclear power plants reinforced this trend, which the efforts towards energy efficiency and the expansion of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar systems could at best slow down.

Infamous special role for Germany

In the ranks of those countries that have restarted coal-fired power plants in view of the impending gas shortage and concerns about the security of supply on the electricity market, Germany plays a thoroughly inglorious special role.

"Only in Germany" is this reactivation with around 10 gigawatts of output to a significant extent, the energy agency determined.

The estimates in the IEA report on how coal consumption will continue to develop leave room for interpretation.

For the EU countries, the authority assumes that the increased generation of electricity will remain at the increased level "for some time", but will return to a "downward path" from 2024 due to higher energy efficiency and more extensive use of renewables.

According to Paris-based experts, global coal demand will also “stabilize by 2025” – at a level of eight billion tons.

But they push behind what is a central condition for this: "A lot depends on the development in China." It cannot be ruled out that the current energy crisis with all its imponderables will fuel coal consumption even further.

In addition to changes in the global economy, the weather, fuel prices and political decisions of individual governments, there are many other possible "variables".