(Economic Observer) US Export Control Opens "Pandora's Box"

　　China News Agency, Beijing, December 9 (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) The "combination punch" that the United States has played against China in the semiconductor field has attracted continuous attention at home and abroad.

A number of scholars have recently written articles pointing out that a series of blocking and suppressing actions by the United States will have serious consequences for both US companies and the global semiconductor industry.

　　Wei Shaojun, chairman of the IC Design Branch of the China Semiconductor Industry Association and executive vice chairman of the China Integrated Circuit Innovation Alliance, said that the real purpose of the US export control measures is to rebuild a global semiconductor supply chain without China's participation, and at the same time contain and suppress other competition. opponent.

　　Wei Shaojun believes that the content of the semiconductor supply chain is extremely extensive, and there are many types of industries, and almost no country can own all the links.

As the market is the most important link, once there is a problem, the efforts of all the previous links will be in vain.

"Some people in the U.S. government expect to build a supply chain system without China to contain China's largest semiconductor market, which is obviously a lack of understanding of the semiconductor industry."

　　Cai Yimao, dean of the School of Integrated Circuits at Peking University, also said that integrated circuits are an industry that truly realizes the globalization of supply chains. The United States' "campaign confrontation" and technological containment will inevitably cause huge losses to American companies and affect the stable operation and development of enterprises. healthy development of the industry.

　　According to the assessment of the American Integrated Circuit Association, the establishment of a self-sufficient domestic supply chain in the United States will require at least US$1 trillion in upfront investment, and chip prices will increase by 35% to 65% overall.

In addition, the integrated circuit supply chains of China and the United States are highly complementary. American companies have gained huge benefits in the process of developing the integrated circuit industry in China. Many leading integrated circuit companies in the United States account for more than 30% of their revenue in China, and some even reach 50%.

　　Tu Xinquan, dean of the China WTO Research Institute at the University of International Business and Economics, and Li Jiantong, an assistant researcher, pointed out that the direct negative impact of the new regulations on the United States has already appeared. The revenue of enterprises has decreased, and new investment has been suppressed. The potential impact may be more serious.

　　After the introduction of the new regulations, many US semiconductor giants have significantly lowered their revenue targets.

Applied Materials (Applied Materials) disclosed that the impact of the new rules on its revenue in 2023 may reach 1.5 billion to 2.5 billion US dollars.

Lam Research believes that its 2023 revenue may be reduced by $2 billion to $2.5 billion due to the new regulations.

　　Some US semiconductor companies have announced significant reductions in equipment investment. For example, Intel's equipment investment in 2022 will be reduced by 15% compared to the previous plan, and Micron Technology will reduce its investment in pre-process equipment by 50% in 2023.

　　"The new U.S. export control regulations intend to stifle China's semiconductor industry. It seems to have some effect in the short term, but it also shoots itself in the foot, damaging the long-term interests and development prospects of the country's semiconductor industry." Tu Xinquan and Li Jiantong said.

　　Analysts believe that US export control will not only impact domestic companies, but will also cause great damage to the interests of the global semiconductor industry.

　　Tu Xinquan and Li Jiantong believe that the new US export control regulations have caused huge losses to the global semiconductor industry chain.

The new regulations have disrupted the original division of labor system of the global semiconductor industry chain, seriously deviating from the actual production of enterprises.

In addition, the new regulations have also inhibited technological progress in the global semiconductor industry chain, increased risks and uncertainties in the global semiconductor industry chain, and damaged policy mutual trust among all parties.

This kind of unreasonable export control is like opening the "Pandora's Box", and will even lead to huge shocks in the regional and even global semiconductor industry and related industries.

　　Wei Shaojun also said that the reason why the global semiconductor industry can achieve today's brilliance depends on global cooperation.

Today, the globalization process of the semiconductor industry has reached an irreversible level. If this situation is to be forcibly changed, the global semiconductor market will only be torn and fragmented, and the semiconductor industry will fall into deep uncertainty.

　　He bluntly stated that as long as an industry has high profits, there will be new entrants.

"Don't expect to be able to occupy high profits on the one hand and hope that there will be no competitors on the other hand. This is unrealistic." Malicious suppression will not bring security to the supply chain.

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