Su Qingyi: China still has the initiative to deal with the restructuring of the global industrial chain

　　Editor's note:

　　The reconstruction of the global industrial chain and supply chain is accelerating, and the China New Observation column of Chinanews.com launched a series of reports on "Great Powers and Strong Chains" to gather wisdom from all parties for supply chain reform and industrial security development.

[Great country and strong chain]

　　China News Service, December 5th (Li Jinlei, chief financial reporter) "Responding to the uncertainty of the global industrial chain restructuring with the certainty of reform and opening up, China still has the initiative to deal with the restructuring of the global industrial chain." Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Su Qingyi, deputy director and researcher of the International Trade Research Office of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, said in an exclusive interview with the China New Watch column of Chinanews.com.

Drawing by Xu Pengyu

Respond to the uncertainty of global industrial chain restructuring with the certainty of reform and opening up

　　"From the reform and opening up to the international financial crisis, the characteristics of China's participation in the global industrial chain are very obvious." Su Qingyi pointed out that the typical feature is that China makes full use of its labor cost advantage and focuses on labor-intensive links.

Its performance is that processing trade accounts for a high proportion of foreign trade.

Since the international financial crisis, the proportion of China's processing trade has gradually decreased, from the original "half of the country" (1/2) to "third of the world" (1/3) to the current 1/4, and some industries have technology-intensive The advantage of the type link.

　　Su Qingyi said that the original balance in the division of labor among countries in the industrial chain has been broken, and the United States is trying to delay or delay China's climb to the high end of the industrial chain by suppressing China's high-tech industry.

With the improvement of China's development level, the labor cost advantage is weakening, and countries with low labor costs such as Vietnam and India have more advantages in some labor-intensive links.

The breaking of the balance and the profound changes in Sino-US relations also mean that many intermediate countries have to consider political factors when participating in the global industrial chain, making it more difficult to make choices.

　　"For China, it is necessary not only to climb to the high end and achieve high-quality development, but also to maintain the original industry as much as possible to ensure employment and maintain a reasonable economic growth rate, so it is facing difficulties in transformation." Su Qingyi believes that China The challenge we are facing is an inevitable phenomenon in the current stage of development as a major country, and the fundamental way out lies in reform and opening up, and we should use the certainty of reform and opening up to deal with the uncertainty of the restructuring of the global industrial chain.

Therefore, China still has the initiative to deal with the restructuring of the global industrial chain.

It is a challenge and an opportunity for Vietnam and India to undertake a part of "Made in China"

　　Will the new crown pneumonia epidemic accelerate the relocation of China's industrial chain?

Is it necessary to worry that China's "world factory" status will be replaced by Vietnam, India or other countries?

　　Su Qingyi said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has an impact on most countries in the world, and the epidemic itself will not accelerate the relocation of China's industrial chain.

However, in the international arena, differences in epidemic prevention and control will affect the investment decisions of multinational companies, thereby affecting the industrial chain.

　　In his view, with the improvement of China's development level, the world share of "Made in China" will decline. This is an economic law and an inevitable result of China's transition to "Created in China".

However, the world's demand for manufactured products is relatively stable, and there is always a need for a country to undertake part of China's original manufacturing industry.

　　Su Qingyi believes that from the current situation, Vietnam, India and other countries have great potential, and they will undertake some "Made in China". Their undertaking is not only a challenge to China, but also an opportunity.

What China needs to do is to seize the opportunity of moving the industrial chain outward as much as possible, and increase the initiative to deal with the restructuring of the industrial chain.

Strengthen the ability to maintain economic and trade relations through deep participation in the division of labor

　　How can China minimize economic risks while maximizing its integration into the global division of labor system, and at the same time reshape its competitiveness and open up new development space?

　　Su Qingyi said that this actually involves how to coordinate the development and safety of the industrial chain.

Both risk and security originate from the interruption or fluctuation of the industrial chain, but the reasons for the two are different.

There have always been risks in the industrial chain, which originate from non-governmental factors, such as financial crisis, natural disasters, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, which will cause the interruption of the industrial chain.

The security of the industrial chain comes from government factors.

　　"Countries and enterprises can reduce industrial chain risks through diversification. Dealing with industrial chain security is more complicated. One is to be self-reliant and self-reliant in technology, and the other is to strengthen the dominance in the global industrial chain, which can make other countries dare not cut off the industry. The third is to manage political relations as well as possible, and exchange a good political space for time for independent innovation.” Su Qingyi said.

　　The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that we should deeply participate in the global industrial division of labor and cooperation, and maintain a diversified and stable international economic structure and economic and trade relations.

Su Qingyi said that China should enhance its ability to maintain economic and trade relations through in-depth participation in the division of labor, and then create a good economic and trade environment.

To avoid the "Samuelson Trap", China and the United States must compete with each other in terms of technological differences

　　Industrial upgrading has brought China the competitiveness of various industries in international trade at all levels. The resulting profound changes in international trade have had a major impact on the domestic politics of other countries, especially developed countries. These impacts have caused a chain reaction in international politics. .

How to Avoid the "Samuelson Trap"?

　　Su Qingyi pointed out that the "Samuelson Trap" originated from a very famous paper by American economist Samuelson in 2004. This paper actually said that if China's technological progress occurs in industries with comparative advantages in the United States, American welfare will suffer.

This is equivalent to moving the "cheese" of the United States.

Because the result is Sino-US economic and trade friction, it can be regarded as an economic expression of the "Thucydides Trap".

　　In Su Qingyi's view, to avoid the "Samuelson Trap", China and the United States must compete on a technological basis.

The global industrial chain is characterized by a particularly fine division of labor, and it is impossible for a country to have advantages in all links.

The United States should realize that each country has its own strengths, and that countries only have comparative and absolute advantages in specific areas.

The United States should not try to be hostile to pursuers at all points.

　　He pointed out that China and the United States should reach a consensus in the field of international economic and trade rules.

The United States believes that China uses its institutional advantages to compete, so it tries to restrict China through rule-making.

If China and the United States can reach a consensus on rule-making and compete under common rules, they can coexist peacefully.

　　"China and the United States should be aware of the externalities of the industrial chain and jointly deal with the risks of the industrial chain. The industrial chain has the characteristics of externalities, and the competition between China and the United States will affect other countries in the industrial chain. In order to avoid external risks, China and the United States We can cooperate, first, China and the United States control supply chain security issues, and second, China and the United States cooperate to deal with industrial chain risks." Su Qingyi said.

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