(Economic Observer) Facing the problem of global inflation, how to "prescribe" to achieve financial stability?

  China News Agency, Beijing, December 3 (Reporter Xia Bin) Dark clouds of inflation are covering the world.

World Bank President Malpass said in a recent interview that global inflation is still very worrying.

"Our economy is growing slowly, inflation remains high, and many countries are at risk of recession." Faced with the problem of global inflation, how to "prescribe" to achieve financial stability?

  The "IFF2022 Global Finance and Development Report" released at the 2022 Global Annual Conference of the International Finance Forum (IFF) stated that inflationary pressures are expected to continue in 2023, and the tightening of global financial conditions may cause more developing economies to Trapped in debt.

  Where does inflation come from?

Domenico Siniscalco, vice chairman of IFF, global vice chairman of Morgan Stanley, and former Italian finance minister, said that the global supply chain is being damaged by geopolitical factors, which has brought more inflation problems.

In his view, the inflation environment or causes of inflation are different, and the solutions are naturally different.

  For example, U.S. inflation is demand-side-driven inflation, which is the result of previous expansionary policies, which has caused a tight supply side, so the U.S. can respond to inflation by raising interest rates; while European inflation is supply-side-driven inflation, such as energy supply Disturbed, so it cannot be solved simply by raising interest rates.

Therefore, central banks of all countries should do a good job in risk prevention and control, and weigh the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability.

  Sang Xiaoni, former managing director of BlackRock Group, pointed out that another important source of inflationary pressure is the transformation of traditional energy companies such as mining and oil. Due to insufficient investment in the past few years, there is now obvious inflationary pressure.

Fiscal policy is critical to financial stability, and the spillover effects of Fed rate hikes are creating challenges around the world.

  Despite this, the guests participating in the 2022 Global Annual Meeting of the International Finance Forum (IFF) generally believe that global systemic financial risks will not appear in the short term.

  Sang Xiaoni said that the last global financial crisis was caused by the excessive development of the financial system, while the current factors affecting international financial stability are mainly geopolitical tensions and the increasing protection of monetary and fiscal policies in some countries. doctrine tendencies.

For example, once the Fed starts to raise interest rates, the whole world will bear the consequences of raising interest rates.

  Zhang Xiaoling, general manager of Huaan Fund Management Co., Ltd., said that the reason for the 2008 global economic crisis was that the leverage ratio of the traditional financial system was too high, and the shadow banking system had too many loopholes in liquidity. However, the current global financial system, especially the banking system, is in good condition. In the United States and Japan, the financial system is generally stable.

  "However, inflation has become a real risk. Emerging market countries are overly dependent on energy imports, some countries are affected by the epidemic, and the combination of problems in the global supply chain and deglobalization may lead to high inflation rates." Zhang Xiaoling said.

  How to prescribe the right medicine for high inflation to achieve financial stability?

Zhou Hanmin, vice chairman of IFF and vice chairman of the Shanghai CPPCC, believes that countries around the world can refer to "China's experience."

  From 2013 to 2021, China's contribution to global economic growth will reach 38.6%, surpassing that of the United States.

From January to September this year, China's inflation rate was 2%.

Zhou Hanmin said that this is firstly due to the bumper agricultural harvest, and secondly due to the stability of energy prices, including oil and natural gas, coal prices and green energy.

  He pointed out that by maintaining economic growth rate, stabilizing employment supply, and launching an effective monetary policy, China has become the "ballast stone" to stabilize the world economy and the "main force" to solve supply chain problems and inflation problems.

  Many guests also believed in their speeches that countries should not only formulate policies based on their own interests, but should give more consideration to coordination and cooperation with other countries.