Reporter Liu Qi and trainee reporter Han Yu
The fifth Maritime Silk Road Salon and Jiangbei District Port and Shipping Service Industry Development Forum with the theme of "Development Trends and Prospects of the Global Container Shipping Market" was recently held in Ningbo, Zhejiang.
At the meeting, Sun Daqing, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Provincial Seaport Group and Ningbo Zhoushan Port Group, said that the shipping market has shifted from high-speed growth to volatile operation, and container freight rates have continued to fall. Since mid-June this year, freight rates have fallen to a two-year low.
The new opportunities and challenges faced by the container shipping market, supply chain, and the port and shipping industry are also topics that have attracted much attention recently.
In the past two years, the shipping market has undergone a transformation from "hard to find a container" and "hard to find a cabin" to "ports with empty containers piled up".
In 2020, due to factors such as growth in overseas demand and poor logistics, the price of international shipping has been soaring. However, since this year, the price of international shipping has fluctuated from a high level and has gradually entered a reasonable range.
Liang Haiming, dean of the "Belt and Road" Research Institute of Hainan University, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the overall decline in shipping prices is mainly due to the impact of the global economic downturn and the further slowdown in global trade and consumer demand, resulting in the simultaneous demand for shipping. reduce.
The shipping market is under obvious pressure
According to the latest data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of November 25, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) closed at 1229.90 points, which has fallen by about 76% from the highest point since 2020 of 5109.60 points (January 7, 2022). .
The rate of decline has been particularly pronounced since the third quarter of this year, with a decline of approximately 71% from July 1 to November 25.
At the same time, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also showed a downward trend, closing at 1355 points on November 30, a drop of 76% from the highest point of 5650 points since 2020 (October 7, 2021). The decline also reached 41%.
"The current shipping market is under obvious pressure." Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter, whether it is from the BDI index of dry bulk shipping or the CCFI and SCFI indexes of the container shipping market, The shipping market prices have all dropped significantly.
From the perspective of supply and demand, on the one hand, due to the continuous high inflation and the sharply tightened monetary policy, the downward pressure on the global economy represented by developed economies such as Europe and the United States has increased. The decline in my country's export growth since August has also confirmed that External demand is slowing down; on the other hand, compared with 2020 and 2021, the work efficiency of major ports in the world has improved this year, and container shipping capacity has further increased.
Insufficient demand combined with easing supply pressure has led to a continuous decline in shipping prices in the near future.
The "Weekly Report on China's Export Container Transportation Market" released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on November 25 shows that the current export container transportation market continues to be sluggish, and transportation demand is weak.
Taking European routes and North American routes as examples, the data released by the research institution Markit shows that the manufacturing PMIs in the euro zone and the United States in November were 47.3 and 47.6 respectively, both in the contraction range, and the business activity is also low.
Affected by the sluggish transportation demand, the market freight rate also continued to decline.
Freight rates may continue the callback trend
Regarding the follow-up shipping price trend, Bo Wenxi, Chief Economist of IPG China, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that the peak season for overseas consumption at the end of the year is coming, especially the rise in Christmas consumer demand will drive China's festive supplies and consumer goods, light goods, etc. The export of industrial products provides partial support for the subsequent trend of shipping prices.
However, due to the excessive increase in shipping prices before, there is a high probability that there will still be a callback trend in the future.
According to Liang Haiming, as far as the international shipping market is concerned, the first half of the year (especially March and April) is an off-season, and the second half of the year will see increased demand from manufacturers in various countries due to the concentration of festivals in Europe and the United States.
However, due to people in Europe and the United States worrying about economic slowdown, inflation and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the circulation of consumer goods has slowed down, and the shipping industry has begun to show a trend of worsening demand than expected. The peak season is not busy, and the downward trend of freight rates is still relatively obvious for the time being.
"In the context of increasing downward pressure on the global economy, considering factors such as the decline in commodity consumption expenditures of residents in developed economies and the accumulation of manufacturers' commodity inventories, it is necessary to be cautious about the actual demand in the peak season for overseas consumption at the end of this year." Mingming said.
Lin Wei, a researcher at Shenzhen Venture Capital Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that, judging from the "Black Friday" consumption peak season, although online consumption in the United States is still at a record high, the growth rate has slowed down, and offline consumption has shrunk.
In the past, the peak seasons of Christmas and New Year’s consumption needed to be stocked at least one quarter to half a year in advance, but this year’s peak season in Europe and the United States may show insufficient order demand and insufficient demand for shipping.
Enterprises in the industrial chain need to actively respond
In the context of the continuous drop in shipping prices, relevant companies in the industry chain also need to actively respond.
"For shipping companies, the previously booming shipping market may prompt them to purchase new ships at high prices to increase shipping capacity. The current drop in shipping prices may increase their operating pressure. In this regard, shipping companies need to improve their comprehensive service capabilities as soon as possible. Grasp the new opportunities emerging under the RCEP and other trade frameworks, and at the same time, be more cautious about ship investment.” Mingming said that for freight forwarders, as the freight rate falls, it may face the situation of freight rate inversion, that is, the price of the long-term agreement is higher than the immediate futures price.
In this regard, the freight forwarding company needs to strengthen cost management, actively try to renegotiate the long-term agreement price with the shipping company, improve customer service capabilities, and win by service.
Mingming believes that the supply and demand in the container shipping market will gradually return to balance, and the continuous price drop may reduce the cost pressure of foreign trade companies to a certain extent.
In this regard, on the one hand, foreign trade enterprises must actively understand and make full use of foreign trade stabilization policies, such as expanding overseas markets through RCEP, cross-border e-commerce models and other channels, and strive for new orders; on the other hand, they should reasonably control raw materials according to their own conditions and changes in overseas demand Cost and inventory levels will improve the ability of enterprises to resist the risk of an unexpected drop in external demand.
"As far as the follow-up shipping price trend is concerned, the transportation costs of foreign trade companies have a tendency to decrease. For foreign trade companies whose prices are priced at CIF, they need to appropriately reduce forward waybills to avoid losses from falling freight rates." Bo Wenxi Say.
Liang Haiming suggested that in the case of reduced demand in the traditional European and American markets, foreign trade companies can actively explore the markets of countries along the “Belt and Road” in the future, especially the markets of ASEAN countries.
(Securities Daily)