Our reporter Bao Xing'an
The economic operation in the fourth quarter is very important to the economy of the whole year.
Recently, meetings have been held in many places to release signals to stabilize growth.
Next, we will continue to make efforts to promote consumption, expand investment, stabilize industry, etc., and make full efforts to ensure that the annual economic operation is within a reasonable range.
Promoting consumption and stabilizing investment becomes the starting point
Continue to promote stable economic growth in many places.
On November 17, Hubei Province held a province-wide work promotion meeting for stabilizing growth, stating that "it is necessary to focus on the goals and tasks of the whole year and continue to increase" and "to focus on stabilizing the economic market and continue to increase"; the Sichuan Provincial People's Government held on November 22 The 115th executive meeting studied and deployed the province's economic operation and other work, and said, "Sprint with all your strength and do your best to achieve the best results."
Song Xiangqing, deputy dean of Beijing Normal University's Institute of Government Management and director of the Industrial Economics Research Center, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that going all out to stabilize growth is the most direct means to alleviate the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakening expectations.
Stabilizing the fundamentals of the economy is an inevitable requirement in the face of various difficulties and challenges, and it is also the premise and basis for achieving economic stability and progress throughout the year.
Recently, the consumer market has attracted much attention.
Judging from the situation in October, due to the frequent spread of domestic epidemics, some areas have been affected by contact and gathering consumption, especially the overall slowdown of some service consumption.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that with the gradual implementation of various consumption-promoting policies, as the economy gradually recovers, residents' employment improves, and their income increases, it is still worth looking forward to the recovery of consumption.
Many places regard the promotion of consumption as an important focus of steady growth.
The promotion meeting on stabilizing growth held in Hubei Province proposed to support rigid and improved housing demand, boost automobiles, home appliances and other bulk consumption, promote the recovery of the tourism industry, accelerate the integration of online and offline consumption, and give full play to the role of domestic demand in stimulating economic growth.
On November 24, Sichuan Province held a province-wide video conference on consumption promotion work, saying that it will seize the peak season of festivals to carry out consumption promotion activities, build and upgrade exhibition platforms, and continue to create consumption scenarios.
Vigorously promote the consumption of automobiles, especially new energy vehicles, stabilize the consumption of real estate in the whole chain, organize activities such as "Delicious Sichuan" and the International Food Festival, and polish the signs of Sichuan style catering.
Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that due to factors such as the epidemic, the consumption scene has been limited since late October, and the continued recovery of consumption is under pressure.
In this case, it is necessary to further strengthen the policy to hedge the negative impact.
If relevant policies can effectively improve residents' income and future expectations, and stimulate consumption willingness, it will help consumption pick up in the fourth quarter.
Stabilizing investment is still an important starting point for stabilizing local growth.
The consumption promotion work video conference held in Sichuan Province proposed to ensure that all projects supported by national policy financial instruments will start before the end of November, and organize on-site promotion activities for major projects in the fourth quarter.
Recently, many places seized the golden construction period, accelerated the progress of project construction, and sprinted the annual target.
For example, on November 25, Yunnan Province held an on-site promotion meeting for the intensive start of key water conservancy project construction in the winter and spring of 2022. 100 key water conservancy projects in the province started intensively, with a total investment of 51.5 billion yuan.
In addition, there are places that release investment plans for key projects.
For example, on November 23, the Anhui Provincial People's Government issued an investment plan for the second batch of key projects in 2022. There are a total of 1,566 projects with a total investment of 1,013.217 billion yuan, and the planned investment in 2022 is 134.235 billion yuan.
Song Xiangqing said that expanding investment can not only cultivate market entities, increase the number of market entities, increase the scale of market entities, but also stimulate the vitality of market entities, improve the quality of market entities, and enhance the momentum of market entities.
It is hoped that in the future, more focus will be placed on the product highlights and market hotspots after the project is put into production, and more analysis will be made on the advantages and disadvantages of the project, the ratio of input to output, and the contribution of the project to the economy.
Feng Lin, a senior analyst at the Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, told a reporter from the "Securities Daily" that with the steady growth of infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter and rising demand, infrastructure investment will accelerate again in November.
It is estimated that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment for the whole year will reach about 12%, which is expected to accelerate the GDP growth rate by 1.2 percentage points.
This means that infrastructure investment has played a mainstay role in stabilizing the economic market this year.
Blowing the "horn" of steady industrial growth
Promoting the sustained and stable recovery of the industrial economy is also an important starting point for steady growth.
On November 21, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments jointly issued the "Notice on Consolidating the Recovery and Boosting the Industrial Economy", which proposed five key work measures to stabilize growth, and once again sounded the "horn" of stabilizing industrial growth.
Many places have proposed a series of policies around the steady growth of the industrial economy.
For example, on November 24, the Anhui Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology organized a video conference on the operation of the province's industrial economy to analyze the current situation of the province's industrial economy and arrange key tasks for the next stage of stable industrial growth.
The meeting proposed to promote the stability and smoothness of the supply chain of the industrial chain, ensure that the "white list" enterprises (projects) do not stop production, stop working, and maintain core production capacity.
Dong Zhongyun believes that industrial stability is the foundation of economic stability, and it is also the basic requirement for domestic protection of people's livelihood.
A prerequisite for boosting the industrial economy is to reduce the impact of the epidemic on economic activities as soon as possible and further smooth the internal circulation.
In addition, with the signs of economic weakening in major overseas countries gradually emerging, the role of external demand in stimulating my country's economy is weakening, which has been reflected in the growth rate of exports.
Stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment is also an important aspect of stabilizing industry, and more efforts should be made to further ensure the stability of the external circulation.
In general, Song Xiangqing said that to stabilize growth, we must put innovation-driven, enhance enterprise potential and development stamina as the top priority.
It is necessary to promote stable growth policies at different levels. For large and medium-sized enterprises, it is necessary to strengthen the accuracy and timeliness of macro-control policies, encourage large and medium-sized enterprises to formulate income distribution mechanisms that meet the actual situation and development needs of enterprises, and encourage large and medium-sized enterprises to adjust investment directions and structures. , to mobilize the enthusiasm of owners of various factors of production.
For small and micro enterprises, it is necessary to implement refined point-to-point support policies to solve various problems that restrict their development.
In this way, it is promoted to "climb ashore, stand up, and run", thereby creating more jobs and better serving the needs of people's livelihood.
"Stabilizing growth requires a good grasp of income distribution. The focus of good income distribution is to increase the income of low- and middle-income groups. At the same time, local governments must focus on controlling prices and resolutely curb the sharp rise in prices of daily consumer goods. This is to stabilize residents' income expectations. Stabilizing residents' life expectations is the basis for stabilizing residents' happiness expectations. Stabilizing prices is conducive to stabilizing growth, and stabilizing expectations is conducive to stabilizing confidence." Song Xiangqing said.
(Securities Daily)