Scholars: The integration of industrial chain and supply chain is mutually beneficial and win-win between China and ASEAN

　　China News Service, Shanghai, November 27th (Reporter Xu Jing) "There is still greater space and prospects for cooperation between China and ASEAN." Xu Qiyuan, researcher and deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, on the evening of the 25th As the keynote speaker, he said when he attended the theme lecture "Prospects for China-ASEAN Cooperation in the Restructuring of Global Industrial Chains" online.

　　After analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of Vietnam, India and other emerging market countries, Xu Qiyuan believes that Vietnam has obvious advantages but limited long-term challenges, while India has more practical difficulties but great long-term development potential.

Taking Vietnam as an example, Vietnam's business environment has been greatly improved, and its geographical location and international environment are also very obvious. Its position in the global value chain is higher than that of India. However, Vietnam itself has a small population and economic scale. , and the lack of heavy chemical industry capacity has restricted its long-term development potential.

　　Xu Qiyuan also introduced the decomposition of the added value of exports in Southeast Asia, pointing out that China actually obtained more added value indirectly from the exports of Southeast Asian countries.

"These positive changes reflect the integration of China's and ASEAN's industrial and supply chains. This economic and trade relationship is mutually beneficial and win-win."

Professor He Fan.

Photo courtesy of Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University

　　Xu Qiyuan's main research areas are China's macroeconomic policy and Sino-US economic and trade issues.

In the lecture that night, he analyzed from China's position in the global supply chain, pointing out that China has a strong influence in the global supply chain network, but through the two dimensions of export centrality and import concentration of intermediate products. , found that China also has a certain vulnerability in the global supply chain.

　　Xu Qiyuan analyzed that China is facing the impact of the reshaping of the global industrial chain, with the Sino-US conflict as the main line, and digitalization, the impact of the epidemic, and low-carbonization as the three auxiliary lines. In particular, the globalization of the information age has made my country face more challenges.

Globalization can be divided into three stages: cross-border consumption, cross-border production, and current cross-border information flow.

In the context of the current global industrial chain reshaping, China is faced with the choice of industrial relocation, inward relocation and regional restructuring.

He pointed out that every choice has its positive and negative aspects.

For example, the relocation of the industrial chain, excessive relocation will indeed lead to the hollowing out of the industry, but a reasonable relocation is also a natural process of industrial upgrading, which is conducive to the formation of a production network with China as the core.

In the past ten years, judging from the pressure of China's industrial chain to relocate, it has gone through four stages, but now China's position in the global supply chain has risen, especially since 2018.

From the perspective of enterprises, mainly from the perspective of existing foreign-funded business in China, by 2021, the pressure to relocate the industrial chain will not be as great as imagined at the time.

　　"In general, there are several optimistic factors in China's consolidation of the industrial chain." Xu Qiyuan said, first, the super-large domestic market scale is very attractive to foreign-funded enterprises. In 2021, the domestic sales and exports of foreign-funded enterprises in China will respectively reach 2 Trillion and 1.1. Trillion.

Generally speaking, foreign-funded enterprises in China have basically established the strategy of "in China, for China" (in China for China).

Second, the return on investment of foreign-funded enterprises in China is quite high, even significantly higher than other major economies; third, for some intermediate countries, such as Vietnam, China has an obvious complementary relationship with it. Even if we look at the competitive relationship, China also has Absolute dominance.

　　He Fan, dean of the China Development Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University and professor of Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, said that the formation of regional production networks is a long-term trend, and China should further strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries, especially ASEAN countries. Promote China's deep integration into the global economy.

　　The event was hosted by the Antai College of Economics and Management of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, co-organized by the China Development Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and the Modern Financial Research Center of Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

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