Our reporter Wang Lixin
Near the end of the year, favorable real estate policies such as "Second Arrow", "Financial 16 Articles", and letter of guarantee replacement for pre-sale regulatory funds have come out frequently. rush in the harvest.
On November 23, the Hunnan Branch of Shenyang Natural Resources Bureau organized the listing and trading of five plots; on November 22, Changzhou Public Resources Trading Center publicly sold 4 (lots) of plots through online listing, with a total starting price of 2.787 billion yuan ; On November 21, 15 plots of the fifth batch of centralized land supply in Nanjing in 2022 were listed, with a total starting price of 5.63 billion yuan; on November 18, Wuhan Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning released the fifth batch of " In the "Two Concentrations" land transfer announcement, a total of 19 cases of various types of land were launched, with a total starting price of about 11.624 billion yuan...
"Every city has an annual land supply plan. In order to increase the completion rate as much as possible, the land supply will be more active at the end of the year." Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Crane Research Center, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that since November, although real estate Favorable policies in the industry are frequently issued, but it is expected that it will take time to be transmitted to the investment side, so the impact on the land market will not be significant for the time being, and it will continue to operate at a low level in a short period of time, and the transaction at the base price will still be the mainstream of the land market.
In this regard, Chen Xiao, a senior analyst at the Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center, told a reporter from the Securities Daily, “During the previous rounds of land supply this year, the Duocheng soil auction market was relatively indifferent. Increasing the number of land supply batches can disperse the land. Concentration of supply reduces the pressure on real estate companies to acquire land and increases the land transaction rate.”
Revenue from land sales has decreased
The land market in 2022 is generally in a relatively low state, the scale of land sales income has decreased compared with last year, and the average premium rate is also low. Therefore, it has also become a window period for powerful real estate companies to "stock up".
According to the monitoring data of the Middle Finger Research Institute, as of November 23, the land sales revenue of 40 key cities across the country was 1.87 trillion yuan this year, compared with 2.73 trillion yuan from January to November last year.
"From the perspective of land acquisition by real estate companies in key cities, central enterprises, state-owned enterprises, local platforms, and high-quality private real estate enterprises are the main force for land acquisition." Chen Xiao said that China Resources Land, China Overseas Property, Poly Development, Longfor Group and other large national Real estate companies are still in the leading position in land acquisition.
Judging from the data of several third-party statistical agencies, taking the top 100 real estate companies with newly added value as the index sample, in the first 10 months of this year, China Resources Land, Poly Development, China Overseas Real Estate, Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke and Greentown China added The value of goods exceeded 100 billion yuan.
Overall, the value of newly added goods has long been concentrated in the top 20 sales of real estate companies, and the value of new goods added by the remaining 80 real estate companies accounted for only 25%.
"Our investment development department has downsized and laid off employees. We have not set investment and land acquisition targets and related expenditure plans throughout the year. The focus of the whole company is on sales of inventory and guaranteed delivery." A person from a private real estate company told the "Securities Daily" reporter According to the disclosure, judging from the size of the company's past land reserves, it can still meet the supply in the next two to three years. In an uncertain market, the management tends to operate conservatively.
There are also new phenomena in the industry that deserve attention.
"Now our company's key investment project is the agency construction business. This is an asset-light business. Although the profit is not high, it is better than 'guaranteed income during drought and flood'." Another person from a real estate company told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
Increase the scale of land supply in many places
In fact, in order to seize the last wave of policy windows at the end of the year, many places are trying their best to start the accelerated land supply model in order to increase the popularity of the land market.
At 10 o'clock on November 25th, the 40,000-square-meter house of Jihua Factory in Lishui, Chancheng District, Foshan City will be auctioned online, with a starting price of 1.299 billion yuan; news on November 22, Changzhou Natural Resources and Planning Bureau A few days ago, a commercial and residential plot was listed in Zhonglou District, with a starting price of 1.911 billion yuan; on November 21, 4 commercial residential plots were listed in Qidong City, Nantong, with a total starting price of 2.53 billion yuan...
In addition to these cities that do not need centralized land supply, among the 22 key cities, many cities have launched the fifth batch of centralized land supply within the year, with a view to completing the 2022 land sales revenue target.
According to the monitoring data of the Middle Finger Research Institute, as of now, four cities including Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, and Wuhan have released the fifth batch of centralized land supply information.
On November 22, Beijing Changping District Chengtou Future Science City Group released a land supply notice on its official account, which means that Beijing is about to usher in the fifth batch of centralized land supply this year.
"Because the land transfer fee payment period in most cities is extended to more than one month, and some cities even allow it to be within 6 months after the land auction, so real estate companies with insufficient investment budgets this year also have a certain amount of land supply at the end of the year. The ability to participate in auctions.” said Zhang Kai, head of the Land Business Department of the Middle Finger Research Institute.
Regarding the future trend of the land market, the industry is widely concerned that since November, private enterprise bond financing support tools ("the second arrow") have continued to exert force, and policies that are beneficial to the financing of private housing enterprises have been introduced one after another. Does activity help?
"This is of great significance to boosting the confidence of the real estate market and alleviating the financial pressure of real estate companies." Chen Xiao said that for the land market, after the financing environment of real estate companies is improved, if the funds are relatively abundant, it will indirectly increase the enthusiasm for land acquisition.
However, it will still take some time for real estate companies to fully improve their funding. It is expected that the local land market may not see major breakthroughs and improvements in the short term.
"Supporting the financing of real estate companies is mainly to alleviate the current debt pressure and prevent the risk from expanding." Liu Shui, research director of the Enterprise Business Department of the Middle Finger Research Institute, said that the most important thing is to solve the problem of "survival" rather than development. Land acquisition is "development" "The problem is that only when sales pick up, private real estate companies' financing recovers smoothly, and their liquidity tension is significantly eased, private real estate companies will increase their willingness to acquire land.
In this regard, Zhang Kai said that it is expected that the land supplied by the end of the year will be mainly sold at the reserve price, and central enterprises and state-owned enterprises will be more active in acquiring land.
(Securities Daily)