Economic Observation: Financial Street Forum releases four major signals of China's economy

　　China News Agency, Beijing, November 23 (Reporter Xia Bin) On the afternoon of the 23rd, the "2022 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting" officially closed in Beijing.

During the three-day meeting, nearly 400 heavyweight guests from all over the world attended, including officials from Chinese ministries and commissions. They exchanged and discussed current economic and financial hot topics, and sent out four major signals of China's economic development.

　　From a macroeconomic perspective, long-term fundamentals are the most solid.

As persistent high inflation and tightening monetary policies of major central banks increase the downside risks of the global economy, the outlook for the world economy is facing severe challenges. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the global economy will grow by about 3.2% this year and will further decline to about 2.7% next year. , for all countries, the current top priority is to stabilize the macroeconomic situation, and China is no exception.

　　Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said bluntly that since the beginning of this year, the inflation rate in the United States and Europe has hit the highest in 40 years, and the monetary policy has suddenly shifted from extreme looseness to radical interest rate hikes. Difficulty and uncertainty of recovery.

China has unique institutional advantages. It has the most complete industrial system and the broadest unified market in the world. Its economy has strong resilience, great potential, and large room for maneuver. Its long-term fundamentals are the most solid.

　　Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, also said: "The fundamentals of long-term economic development have not changed, and the trend of China's economic development towards high-quality development is continuing."

　　From the perspective of the capital market, it is necessary to better reflect Chinese characteristics.

"For practitioners in the capital market, the most important thing is to build and develop a modern capital market with Chinese characteristics." Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that we must adhere to the system concept, adhere to the two-point theory, dialectics, and insist on doing everything from reality. Starting out, on the basis of following the general laws of the capital market, we should better reflect Chinese characteristics and take our own path.

　　How should I go?

How to build it?

For example, Yi Huiman said that it is necessary to have a deep understanding of the distinctive Chinese elements and development stage characteristics embodied in China's market system and mechanism, industry structure, and the sustainable development capabilities of the main body, and to study the applicable scenarios of mature market valuation theories, and to grasp different types of listings. The company's valuation logic explores the establishment of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, and promotes a better function of market resource allocation.

　　He also mentioned that domestic investors in the A-share market account for more than 95% of the shares. Chinese institutions must study and grasp these basic characteristics when investing. They must have independent professional judgment and research capabilities. Quick success, too impetuous.

It is necessary to pay more attention to absorbing wisdom from the excellent traditional Chinese culture, to carry forward cultural concepts such as prudence, truth-seeking, prudence, humility and prudence, and to improve the corresponding corporate governance, incentive and restraint, risk control and regulatory systems , multi-pronged approach, a long time for success.

　　From the perspective of the foreign exchange market, cross-border capital flows are stable and orderly.

Since the beginning of this year, "high inflation" and "tight currency" have caused violent shocks in the international financial market.

Prices of financial assets such as global stocks and bonds fell across the board.

Facing the above-mentioned external environment, how does China's foreign exchange market perform?

　　Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that China's foreign exchange market has shown new characteristics and its resilience has continued to increase.

Compared with the previous two periods of U.S. dollar appreciation, the RMB exchange rate has become less sensitive to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index since 2021.

From a global perspective, compared with major developed and emerging market currencies, the depreciation of the RMB is at an average level.

Although there were fluctuations in cross-border capital flows, they were generally stable and orderly.

　　Pan Gongsheng also said that the hedging nature of RMB assets has become increasingly prominent.

Since the beginning of this year, the bond yields of major countries in the world have generally risen and prices have fallen, and RMB bonds have become one of the few financial assets with stable prices.

Unlike other emerging market bonds, RMB bonds are quasi-safe assets, and their risk-return characteristics are closer to those of bonds in developed countries.

　　From the perspective of the real estate market, "one city, one policy" should make good use of the policy toolbox.

The real estate industry is associated with many upstream and downstream industries, and its virtuous circle is of great significance to the healthy development of the economy.

Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that the current real estate market has undergone some adjustments. We have cooperated with relevant departments and local governments to make good use of the policy toolbox of "one city, one policy" and reduce the interest rate and down payment ratio of personal housing loans to support rigidity and improvement. sex housing needs.

　　In response to the risk exposure of some real estate companies in the early stage that led to overdue delivery of houses, Yi Gang mentioned that the central bank has issued a special loan of 200 billion yuan for "guaranteed delivery buildings" to support the construction and delivery of sold houses, and studied the establishment of a policy to encourage commercial banks to support "guaranteed delivery housing". building" structural policy tool.

Recently, Chinese officials have expanded the "second arrow" (bond financing support tool) to support private enterprises to issue bonds, providing risk sharing for private enterprises to issue bonds, and private real estate companies are also within the scope of support.

　　Guo Shuqing said that in the recent period, overseas media have continued to hype China's "real estate crisis" and "decline of the construction industry". In fact, China is still at the peak of urbanization and the initial stage of rural revitalization, and the investment in fixed assets of the whole society has a great impact. growth potential.

(Finish)