Our reporter Li Yucheng

　　Trainee reporter Ding Rong

　　Pork prices fell after the "October" holiday surged.

According to data from Oriental Fortune Choice, the average hog price in 22 provinces and cities across the country broke through a high of 28 yuan/kg in October, and has gradually declined in recent days.

Taking Sichuan as an example, the latest data on November 22 showed that the price of local and foreign three-yuan live pigs was 25.24 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.17% from the previous day, and a decrease of 12.24% from the high of 28.76 yuan/kg on October 20.

　　On the news, Gansu, Jiangxi and other places are orderly putting in reserve meat.

At the same time, many leading enterprises in the breeding industry have increased their supply to guide the reasonable operation of pork prices.

In this regard, some people in the industry said that there are frequent signals of policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and the price of pigs is expected to remain stable when the peak season is approaching.

　　A large amount of reserve meat is "on the way"

　　On November 22, the main continuous contract of hogs went down again. As of the close, it was reported at 20895.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% on the day, and a decrease of 14.01% from the high point of 24300.00 yuan/ton on October 14.

　　The reporter learned that various places are actively and orderly putting in reserve meat.

According to the Gansu Provincial Grain and Material Reserve Bureau, the province’s second round of provincial-level meat reserves will start in mid-November. This time, a total of 3,000 tons of provincial-level meat reserves will be released. The release time will last from mid-November this year to New Year’s Day in 2023 , During the Spring Festival, the price of the meat is 10% to 30% lower than the price of similar meat of the same quality in the local market.

Among them, the first batch in Lanzhou City will be released from November 25 to 30, and the second batch will be released from December 30, 2022 to January 15, 2023.

According to the announcement of the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Commerce, the province will start the release of provincial-level reserve pork from November 16, 2022 to January 31, 2023, with a scale of 600 tons and a sales price of 12.1 yuan/catties.

　　Zhang Bin, a pig analyst at the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Steel Union, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily, "Relevant data show that the central pork reserve was released 4 times in September, 2 times in October, and the most recent one was on November 4. A total of 137,100 tons were released in 7 times per day. Both the storage frequency and the single release volume exceeded previous years."

　　At the same time that the government puts in reserve meat, a number of leading enterprises in the breeding industry have increased the supply and cooperated with the work of ensuring the supply of pork.

Muyuan shares stated that in order to actively respond to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and stabilizing market supply, the company has quickly adjusted sales regulations and notified relevant customers in the early stage. At present, the company has stopped selling live pigs to secondary fattening customers.

Pork consumption has a strong holiday effect, and it is expected that the company's sales pace will increase before the Spring Festival.

　　The relevant person in charge of Wen’s Co., Ltd. said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily, “Before and after the National Day, in order to meet the needs of consumers for high-quality pig products, the company increased most of the supply, guided the reasonable operation of pork prices, and helped the industry. Orderly and healthy development. The company will continue to support the guidance and requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other regulatory authorities, stabilize the pace of slaughter, and use its best efforts to cooperate with the work of ensuring the supply of pork, and actively assume due social responsibilities."

　　Industry concentration is gradually increasing

　　Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference recently that the supply of hogs and pork in the market will be guaranteed for a period of time in the future, and the price is expected to remain relatively stable, and it is difficult to see a sharp increase.

　　According to the analysis of the CICC Research Report, it is expected that the price of hogs will first fall and then stabilize in the first half of next year. The increase in the industrial concentration of the hog industry has led to the continuous strengthening of national regulation and control, and the fluctuation of production capacity is limited. The price of hogs is likely to return to demand-driven, showing a typical seasonal trend. .

　　Since 2006, my country has experienced four rounds of pig cycles, and the industrial concentration of the pig industry has gradually increased.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the scale rate of pig breeding in my country will reach 60% for the first time in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 7%.

　　Haitong International Research Report stated that compared with the United States, the market share of the leading pig company Smithfield has reached 15%, and the market share of Triumph Foods, the second largest pig company, has also reached 6%. With a market share of 6%, Zhengbang Technology and Wen's have market shares of 2.22% and 1.97%, respectively, and there is still much room for improvement.

　　An industry insider told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "In the future, the concentration of the industry will show an accelerated trend. Large-scale pig farming enterprises have advantages in terms of capital, technology, and risk resistance, and are also conducive to unified adjustment and guidance in terms of policies. , which in turn is conducive to weakening and 'smoothing' the fluctuations in the pig cycle. This is a good thing for industry practitioners. A stable pig price will be conducive to the high-quality development of the industry, and it will also be conducive to the continued stability of corporate profits." (Securities Daily)