The real estate market is now undergoing positive changes, and there are frequent positives to accelerate the bottoming?

　　China News Service, November 16 (Zuo Yukun, China News Finance reporter) "In general, the real estate market has undergone certain positive changes." Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said on the 15th When talking about real estate development at the press conference of the State Council Information Office, he said.

Data map: A view of the city.

Photo by Chinanews reporter Zuo Yukun

Sales

　　On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released real estate-related data from January to October this year. From January to October, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 1,111.79 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.3%, of which the residential sales area decreased by 25.5%.

The sales of commercial housing were 10,883.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.1%, of which the sales of residential buildings decreased by 28.2%.

　　"The decline in sales amount has narrowed, while the decline in sales area has expanded. The main reason is that sales are increasingly concentrated in core cities and core areas." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that the epidemic has recurred, and the risk expectations of real estate companies have begun to operate steadily. The spread of enterprises has led to another downward trend in market expectations; since the National Day of the developers, large-scale discounts and promotions have further deepened price reduction expectations and hindered sales.

　　According to the monitoring of the middle finger, the weekly transaction area of ​​the key 50 cities is still falling by more than 10% year-on-year, and the wait-and-see mood of home buyers is still relatively heavy.

Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, also pointed out that the current impetus for the overall improvement of housing sales is not strong, and we must be alert to the possibility of continued deterioration; from the recent market feedback, we must also pay attention to the first-tier cities and the luxury housing market. new pressure.

　　Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Index Business Department of the China Index Research Institute, said that at the end of September, the central government issued a nationwide inclusive policy, and in October, various regions actively followed up. More than 20 cities have lowered the first set of commercial loan interest rates to below 4%. The epidemic situation in many places has been repeated, residents' income expectations have not improved significantly, and the overall market sales have not recovered as expected.

　　Chen Wenjing believes that it is expected that with the continuous implementation of favorable policies in the property market, the optimization of policies at both ends of supply and demand and the improvement of epidemic prevention policies will drive market expectations to further increase, especially after the optimization of policies in more core cities may drive the release of local housing demand. The year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales is expected to narrow.

National commercial housing sales area and sales growth rate.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

The effect of " guaranteed building

supply side is

　　From the perspective of the supply side, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to October, the national real estate development investment was 11,394.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%; among them, residential investment was 8,652 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.3%.

　　"The current sales market is sluggish, and it is difficult to have positive feedback on the investment and start-up of real estate companies. The liquidity brought about by supply-side financing support will ensure the construction and delivery of projects under construction. In the short term, real estate companies' land acquisition and new investment will still face a downturn. pressure." said Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute.

　　Fu Linghui affirmed the improvement of the supply-side data: various regions and departments actively promoted city-specific policies, supported rigid and improved reasonable housing demand, increased efforts to guarantee the delivery of buildings, and promoted the stable development of the real estate market, and the effect gradually emerged.

Judging from the situation of Baojiao Building, the completed investment in real estate development projects that have a construction period of more than two years and are about to enter the delivery stage across the country has maintained rapid growth, and the decline in the completed housing area has narrowed.

　　"With the recent improvement in the omni-channel funding of real estate companies and the implementation of new regulations on the supervision of pre-sale funds, it is expected that the situation of guaranteed delivery buildings will continue to improve, which will have a positive effect on stabilizing market expectations and reversing the weak demand side." Li Yujia said.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, also said that in view of the recent "second arrow" (promoting and expanding bond financing support tools for private enterprises), the intensive introduction of the 16 financial regulations and the pre-sale fund policy for letter of guarantee replacement, objectively there are It helps to improve the liquidity of real estate companies, and also helps to prevent the deterioration of development and investment data.

　　"In the short term, a number of measures to support the financing of real estate companies have been implemented recently, and the regulatory policies for pre-sale funds for high-quality real estate companies are also being adjusted." Chen Wenjing predicts that the superposition of multiple policies will improve the financial pressure of real estate companies and boost enterprises. Confidence, under the requirement of "guaranteed delivery of buildings", real estate investment may improve at the end of the year, but the annual decline may still be relatively large.

National real estate development investment growth rate.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Financial support policies may accelerate market bottoming

　　"This round of market decline is relatively deep, mainly due to the influence of various factors such as the macroeconomic downturn, repeated epidemics, and changing international situations. The market is expected to be more difficult to repair." The characteristics of passivation and short duration have not improved significantly so far in the sales and investment markets.

　　This is also the reason why the central bank, China Banking Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments have successively issued 16 financial support policies, replacement of pre-sale capital letters of guarantee and other policies.

Chen Wenjing said that at a time when market confidence is relatively fragile, the regulatory authorities have released heavy positive news, and the optimization of property market policies in core cities will play a positive role in restoring market confidence.

　　Recently, financial institutions have increased financing for real estate companies, various relief funds have been implemented, bond financing has been fully opened, and the supply-side capital has improved; the demand side has continued to reduce mortgage interest rates, and core cities have made efforts to adjust policies such as purchase restrictions and loan restrictions.

It is generally believed in the industry that various new policies comprehensively support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market from both ends of supply and demand, and the scope of benefits, support, and guiding significance of policy rules have all increased significantly.

　　"On the whole, the implementation of financial support policies at both ends of the supply and demand will help inject liquidity into the market, improve market expectations, and is expected to speed up the bottoming of the market." Liu Lijie said.

　　Li Yujia also believes that the supply and demand sides have shifted from mutual constraints and negative feedback loops in the past to mutual support and mutual benefits, and the property market will bottom out and stabilize in the first half of next year.

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