China News Service, November 16th. On the 16th, the central bank released the report on China's monetary policy implementation for the third quarter of 2022.
The report shows that in the first three quarters, consumer prices rose moderately, while producer prices continued to fall.
In the first three quarters, the consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. The year-on-year growth rates of CPI in September were 2.7%, 2.5%, and 2.8%, respectively.
The price of pork has entered an upward cycle, with an average increase of 26.2% in the third quarter, pushing up food prices by 7.1%, an increase of 4.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter.
The price of upstream raw materials has fallen, and the superimposed epidemic has suppressed service demand, and the increase in non-food prices has slowed down. In the third quarter, the average increase was 1.7%, which was 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
In the first three quarters, the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial producers rose by 5.9% year-on-year, which was 1.8 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year. From July to September, the increases were 4.2%, 2.3%, and 0.9% respectively.
International crude oil and other bulk commodity prices have fallen, and the high base of the previous year has been superimposed, and the year-on-year increase in PPI has dropped month by month.
In the first three quarters, the purchasing price of industrial producers (PPIRM) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, which was 2.1 percentage points lower than that in the first half of the year; 1.2 percentage points lower and 1.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year.
The central bank stated that the price increase is generally moderate, but it should be alert to the pressure of inflation rebound in the future.
In the third quarter, the price of food such as pork and vegetables rose rapidly, while the price of services such as travel and accommodation rose less than the level of previous years due to the impact of the epidemic.
At the same time, international crude oil and other bulk commodity prices fluctuated and declined, driving the PPI growth rate to continue to fall, and the year-on-year growth rate turned negative in October, and it is expected to maintain a low level during the year.
Looking forward to the future, my country's overall economic supply and demand are generally balanced, the monetary policy remains stable, the industrial chain and supply chain are relatively smooth, and residents' inflation expectations are stable, which has favorable conditions for maintaining a basically stable price level.
At the same time, we must also attach great importance to the potential for future inflation to heat up.
At present, geopolitical conflicts are still disturbing the world's energy supply. The high inflation viscosity of developed economies is relatively strong, and the pressure of externally imported inflation still exists. my country's M2 growth rate has been relatively high for a period of time. If the aggregate demand further recovers and heats up, it may bring a lag effect; winter Factors such as strong demand for pork purchases and heating, dislocation of the Spring Festival, etc., especially after the epidemic prevention and control becomes more precise, consumption momentum may be released quickly, and structural inflationary pressure may increase in the short term. We must pay close attention to this, strengthen monitoring, research and judgment, and be wary of future inflation rebound pressure.
(China New Finance and Economics)