(Financial World) The "Three Quarterly Reports" of the economies of various countries are released. Who can answer the "final exam" well?

　　China News Agency, Beijing, November 16th (Reporter Li Xiaoyu) Recently, the "Three Quarterly Reports" of the economies of many countries have been released intensively.

Judging from the published data, due to rising uncertainties and intertwined multiple challenges, not many economic situations improved in the third quarter, and major economies are all under pressure.

　　According to official data, China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, significantly higher than the 0.4% growth rate in the second quarter, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate was also 3.9%.

During the same period, many important economic indicators such as investment and consumption improved.

For example, fixed asset investment increased by 5.7% year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points faster than in the second quarter; total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, compared with a decrease of 4.6% in the second quarter.

　　The U.S. economy also rebounded in the third quarter.

In the quarter, thanks to the strong growth of 14.4% in exports, the real GDP of the United States grew at an annual rate of 2.6%, which was significantly better than the 0.6% annualized contraction in the previous quarter, temporarily avoiding recession.

　　The economies of many European countries are becoming more and more sluggish.

In the third quarter, France's GDP growth rate fell to 0.2%, significantly lower than the 0.5% in the second quarter.

In the current quarter, two of the "troika" driving French economic growth have stagnated: household consumption has seen zero quarter-on-quarter growth, and the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth has even dropped to a negative value.

The UK's GDP shrank by 0.2% month-on-month in the third quarter, of which the GDP in September fell by 0.6% month-on-month.

　　In contrast, Germany, the EU's largest economy, is doing slightly better.

According to official data, Germany's GDP grew by 0.3% in the third quarter of this year.

Despite the difficulties in the global economy, the German economy is still on firm footing, according to the German Federal Statistical Office.

　　In Asia, Japan's GDP fell 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, or 1.2% on an annualized basis, due to sluggish growth in personal consumption.

This is the first time the Japanese economy has declined since the third quarter of last year.

South Korea's GDP in the third quarter grew by 0.3% from the previous quarter, which was also lower than the previous two quarters.

South Korean media said that South Korea's economy has "lit up a red light."

　　Right now, it is less than two months before the end of 2022.

With the "final exam" approaching, the world's major economies are hard to say easy, and the situation of "unequal bitterness and happiness" is expected to become more obvious.

　　There is a high probability that the European Union will fall into recession.

The European Commission recently released a report stating that due to multiple factors such as increased uncertainty, soaring energy prices, pressure on household purchasing power, and tightening financing conditions, the economies of the EU, the euro zone and most member states are expected to fall into recession in the fourth quarter of this year. Economic activity will continue to contract in the first quarter.

　　The outlook for the U.S. economy is not optimistic either.

Yang Zirong, an associate researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the rebound in U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter was mainly due to the sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, but the sustainability of the surge in exports is doubtful.

As the consequences of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hike policy begin to be transmitted to the real economy, domestic demand will further contract, which means that the U.S. economic growth in the third quarter only rebounded temporarily, and the recession trend has not been reversed.

　　Although China's economy maintained a recovery trend in October, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value, consumption and other indicators above designated size has declined.

Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, said that looking forward to the whole year, the economic growth rate is expected to further accelerate, but the current international environment is still complicated, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control is still severe, especially in the recent period when new domestic epidemics continue to emerge However, it still takes hard work to promote the sustained recovery of the economy in the fourth quarter.

　　Analysts believe that as the economic situation of major economies intensifies, the world economy may enter a "period of high risk".

　　Liao Qun, chief economist at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, said that amidst the pandemic, the Ukraine crisis, high inflation and tightening monetary policy, there are still uncertainties about whether the global economic growth can return to the level before the pandemic. 3" and the possibility of entering "2" or even "1" cannot be ruled out.

This means that the medium and long-term growth potential of the world economy will be significantly reduced, and the growth differentiation and the gap between the rich and the poor will further widen among various economies.

　　Zhang Yuncheng, director of the Institute of World Economics at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said that the world economy has entered a period of low-speed growth. With limited growth, the stock game is expected to become more intense.

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